Setting the scene
The PGA Tour returns to Phoenix for the Waste Management Phoenix Open after a three-week stop in California, where there will undoubtedly be a party scene on Super Bowl Sunday. With a rowdy scene on the grounds of TPC Scottsdale, many people start their festivities here, particularly on the Par-3 16th, before heading to the Super Bowl.
It’s a welcome return to traditional golf tournaments on the PGA Tour this week after three consecutive multi-course events, two of which were pro-ams. Next, we’re on our way to the Waste Management Phoenix Open in Arizona. Although the tournament dates back to the 1930s, it has only been held at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course since 1987.
This week’s field is solid, with six of the world’s top 10 players competing. World #1 Jon Rahm heads them. However, as nine more of the world’s top twenty players travel to Arizona, the field becomes stronger. I believe one great player will triumph in a field this strong, as evidenced by a roster of recent victors that includes multiple major titles.
Betting Angles
The Skills That Pay The Bills
Driving distance, high-class ball-striking, and an aggressive Going for the Green percentage are essential player traits recognized here. Weiskopf’s design, which contains relatively large and flat green complexes, is ideal for players who can strike the ball consistently well. The re-laid greens themselves are pretty tricky since they have a TifEagle Bermudagrass base with Poa Trivialis overseeding. Since 2010, all winners have been in the top 13 for Greens in Regulation, and I don’t expect that to change in 2022.
| Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Mon |
| +72° | +76° | +74° | +75° | +73° | +73° |
| +54° | +58° | +58° | +60° | +54° | +58° |
A Sucker for Scottsdale
Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Bubba Watson, Daniel Berger, Brandt Grace, Gary Woodland, Louis Oosthuizen, Chez Reavie, Martin Laird, James Hahn, and Jordan Spieth are among the 15 players in this field who have multiple T10 finishes in the last five years.
Course Correlation
TPC courses are known for water hazards, stadium setups, and risk/reward drivable par-4s. While there are numerous scoring opportunities on this course, the winning score has only once in the last 14 years achieved 20-under par. Other events with moderate scoring circumstances have piqued my interest. If I had to choose between TPC Scottsdale and TPC Sawgrass, I'd go with TPC Sawgrass. Both TPC courses are the same length, have a similar final stretch of risk/reward holes, stress Ball Striking and Scrambling, and have produced winners in Rickie Fowler, Webb Simpson, and Phil Mickelson.
Horses for courses
This desert course is relatively short, with undulating Bermuda fairways and big, fast Bermuda greens. The course's primary defenses are deep bunkering and water hazards, which favor consistent ball strikers. However, because the course is situated at a high elevation, golfers must account for this when planning their shots. A reachable par-5 and a driveable par-4 make up an exciting final stretch, with water hazards lurking throughout.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Jon Rahm +750
Justin Thomas +1400
Viktor Hovland +1600
Patrick Cantlay +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +1800
Xander Schauffele +2000
Jordan Spieth +2000
Scottie Scheffler +2800
Daniel Berger +3000
Tony Finau +3300
Sam Burns +3300
Brooks Koepka +3500
Webb Simpson +3500
Bubba Watson +3500
Seamus Power +4000
Louis Oosthuizen +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +4000
Adam Scott +4500
Corey Conners +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Abraham Ancer +5000
Harold Varner +5000
Talor Gooch +5500
Billy Horschel +5500
Tom Hoge +6000
Luke List +6000
Harris English +6000
Maverick McNealy +6600
Max Homa +6600
Matt Kuchar +8000
Francesco Molinari +8000
Kevin Kisner +8000
Si-Woo Kim +8000
Rickie Fowler +8000
Andrew Putnam +9000
Brian Harman +9000
Keith Mitchell +9000
Joel Dahmen +9000
Branden Grace +9000
Gary Woodland +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Russell Knox +10000
Cam Davis +10000
Pat Perez +10000
Troy Merritt +10000
Lucas Herbert +10000
Aaron Wise +10000
Keegan Bradley +10000
Michael Thompson +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Adam Hadwin +12500
Alex Noren +12500
Mito Pereira +12500
Carlos Ortiz +12500
Chris Kirk +12500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Charles Howell +12500
Brendan Steele +15000
Emiliano Grillo +15000
Hudson Swafford +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Stewart Cink +15000
Sahith Theegala +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000
Martin Laird +15000
Matt Wallace +15000
Charley Hoffman +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Chez Reavie +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Nick Taylor +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Dylan Frittelli +15000
Brandt Snedeker +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
James Hahn +20000
Adam Long +20000
Scott Piercy +20000
Kramer Hickok +20000
Sebastian Munoz +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Harry Higgs +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Joseph Bramlett +20000
Sepp Straka +25000
Kyle Stanley +25000
C.T. Pan +25000
Ryan Moore +25000
Henrik Norlander +25000
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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