We saw a very high-owned Cooper Kupp lead the charge last week as the WR1 in fantasy production. He seems to be benefitting from his newfound chemistry with now-Ram Matthew Stafford under center. It looks like he will be one of the top options at the position again this week. Let’s go through some of the top WRs for week three.
Top Ceiling Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill – DraftKings – $8,400 | FanDuel – $8,700
It should come as no surprise that ‘Reek The Freak is the type of player that can break any GPP slate with his incredible talent. Not to mention the benefits of playing with the best quarterback in the league in Patrick Mahomes. Due to his inherent potential, his ceiling projection will be among the top on the slate on any given week.
Yet, this week is not just any other week. This is about as good of a situation as we will see all year for Tyreek, and the only argument for a fade I would see is ownership. We’ll have to see how ownership projections look through the rest of the week.
The Chiefs have the highest implied team total of the week at 31 as -6.5 favorites in a game with a high 55.5 over/under. Yes, they are heavy favorites and should be able to take care of the Chargers easily. Still, the spread is close enough to imply a real possibility of a shootout.
The production is likely not going to come on the ground, so unless Kelce eats it all up, this should be a big game for Hill. His almost 40% share of the Chiefs touchdowns bodes well for what’s to come in this game.
DK Metcalf – DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,200
The DK Metcalf game has to come eventually, with Tyler Lockett stealing the show in weeks one and two. Metcalf’s ceiling is right up there with that of Tyreek Hill in multiple models throughout the industry. He comes at significant savings on both sites.
We’ve got a game here that is tied for the highest total on the slate between Seattle and Minnesota, with a tight spread at Seahawks -1.5. Once again, it could be Lockett or Metcalf, but it’s likely to be one or the other considering the Seahawks’ condensed target tree and the spread here.
The key is that Metcalf generally has the higher ceiling, yet his price has come down after his lack of fantasy production in weeks one and two. He is generally not cheaper than Lockett, but he is on both DK and FD in week three. We are getting him at a bargain here compared to his potential, and it’s time to buy low while we can.
Minnesota has been generous to opposing WRs through weeks one and two. One or the other of Lockett/Metcalf should eat in this matchup. Anyone who says they know who would be lying, but Metcalf is the better value since his price has been depressed for week three. It would still be pertinent to play the ownership game and lean Lockett if the ownership disparity grows as the week goes on.
Ceiling + Value Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp – DraftKings – $6,800 | FanDuel – $7,900
Week two fantasy leader Cooper Kupp is a different play this week on DK vs. FD. His FanDuel price has crept up to the point that he doesn’t qualify as the point-per-dollar value that he does on DK. His ceiling is still all there, nevertheless. At his DraftKings price, it wouldn’t be fair to put him in one category. He is a great value play and has arguably a top-five ceiling on the slate, if not top-three, depending on the model.
The Rams/Buccaneers game is tied for the highest team total on the slate with a tight one-point spread and has a shootout between Stafford/Brady written all over it.
Yes, you’d have to assume that eventually, Robert Woods will get his considering that Woods/Kupp have historically shared a WR1A and 1B role essentially. Yet, we have a new quarterback under center in LA, and Kupp clearly has a unique rapport with Stafford.
The thing that really works in Kupp’s favor regardless of Woods’ involvement or lack thereof is the game environment. He is averaging over 30 DKP per game through weeks one and two despite the Rams not having to throw at nearly the rate they likely will against Tampa Bay.
Not only should a lot of points be scored, and the game should stay close. The Buccs have likely the best-run defense in football end epitomize the concept of a “pass-funnel” defense. We should expect a pass-heavy approach beyond what we have seen thus far this season for the Rams.
Similar to the situation with Metcalf and Lockett, I would keep an eye on ownership and consider a pivot to Woods if the discrepancy becomes too great. Double-stacks with Stafford/Kupp/Woods are in play as well.
Bonus: Cheap Value Wide Receiver
K.J. Osborn – DraftKings $3,500 | FanDuel – $5,100
Osborn is more of a play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but still a bargain on both sites. It doesn’t seem that DraftKings particularly has adapted to the reality of his target share, which has paced Justin Jefferson for Minnesota. He has the added benefit of playing in what should be one of the best game environments of the week between the Seahawks and the Vikings.
He has the benefit of making a great salary relief pairing with Seattle’s primary stacks of Russell Wilson + Metcalf or Lockett. If you were to stack Kirk Cousins on the other side of the game, he would be a cheap add-on to three-man stacks with Cousins and one of Thielen/Jefferson + Osborn. One of the Seattle receivers with Osborn also makes for a great secondary 1+1 stack.