There are tons of great options at wide receiver on this week one NFL slate. An unusual amount of high-upside value exists with some of the new NFL WR talents on the scene at meager prices. We also see the usual established stud WR suspects returning for top offenses that should keep on chugging into 2021. Let’s dig into some of our top overall ceiling projection plays and look at some of the best value options.
Best Ceiling Wide Receivers
It is no surprise that Tyreek Hill has one of the highest fantasy point ceilings this week. His ceiling ranks as the highest or among the highest in multiple projection systems throughout the industry. His price tag is hefty at $8200 on DraftKings, but we’re paying for tournament-winning upside. 27-32 DraftKings points or even slightly more is within a realistic ceiling outcome based on industry projections.
The Chiefs receiving corps has not drastically changed in projected target share. Their offensive line has only improved. Hill was second in the league in air yards per game last season. He faces a less than optimal Browns pass defense in a high total game that should be a shootout. All signs point to a ceiling game for Tyreek for this Chiefs team with Mahomes at the helm and the highest team total on the slate currently sitting at a whopping 30.
Stefon Diggs this week is one of the best overall wide receiver plays by a considerable margin. Based on some models, he is among the highest ceiling, and highest value plays on DraftKings at significant savings over some of the other studs at just $7600. This is despite arguably top-3 ceiling potential in the 25-31 DKP (DraftKings points) range.
Some anticipate the Bills throwing at a near-unprecedented clip this year, and Diggs was second to Davante Adams alone in target share in last year’s season. The Bills did add Emanuel Sanders in the offseason. Still, the aging veteran shouldn’t drastically cut into Diggs’ status as the top-dog WR in Buffalo. The Bills have a 27.5 implied team total in this bout with Pittsburgh, and Diggs should eat in what projects to be an air-centric Bills offensive attack led by Josh Allen under center.
It is no surprise that Davante Adams would have one of the highest ceiling projections on just about any NFL main slate. This one does stand out, though, as a perfect spot for Adams. He places within the top three in fantasy ceiling projection in multiple models throughout the industry. We can anticipate a ceiling in the 27-31 DKP range.
Adams, with Aaron Rodgers operating the ship, is simply a DFS stud. He was the top-scoring PPR point WR last year, and there’s no reason not to expect that to continue this year. The matchup against Marshon Lattimore and the Saints secondary is a plus one, and Green Bay has one of the highest team totals of the week at 27. He’ll cost you at $8300 on DraftKings, but you can play Adams with confidence in his floor for week one with the added benefit of immense ceiling upside.
Best Value Wide Receivers:
Tee Higgins is only $4700 on DraftKings and looks to be the clear WR1 this year for the Bengals. They’ve replaced veteran A.J. Green with a rookie in Ja’Marr Chase, and it doesn’t appear based on preseason performance that Chase will take on a sizable role. Tyler Boyd should be the slot receiver, and Higgins looks to be the man with the most upside at WR for Cincinnati. I would anticipate his price increasing drastically in the coming weeks, assuming things go according to how it’s looking in Cinci.
Many expect Joe Burrow to make significant strides this year for the Bengals, and he also comes at a bargain price tag which could make for a cheap QB/WR pairing. Even if you don’t stack them, you can have some confidence in Burrow to get Higgins the ball enough to pay off his meager price tag. Higgins is one of the best plays of the week on a point-per-dollar basis based on median projection but also presents decent upside with a projected ceiling ranging up to around 21 DKP depending on the model.
Marquez Callaway appears to be the darling of DFSers looking for extreme value at the WR position this week. The man is in the top five of overall raw ceiling projections based on some projection systems. While also being among, if not the best, PPD value at a meager $3400 on DK. It would appear that he almost can’t fail, considering that even a floor performance from a $3400 WR won’t wholly tank your lineups, yet his ceiling is considerable.
This is one of those severe mispricings you often see in week one NFL and one we will want to capitalize on. Not only has the Saints’ passing game outlook drastically improved. We now have ball-chucker and lover of crab Jameis Winston under center over the done-for version of Drew Brees we saw last year. But the most significant factor is that bonafide target-hog WR1 Michael Thomas will miss at least the first five games of the season. This thrusts Callaway into a considerable role in the passing game.
This GB/NO game also features a decent total approaching 50 at the time of this writing. Although New Orleans is an underdog at +4.5 points, we really don’t know what we’re going to see with this new look Saints team. If they can keep pace, the game has a good chance of shooting out, and Callaway could pair well with Adams on the other side for a game stack. The only reason not to lock him in in all formats would be very high ownership, but it might not be high enough considering how much of a smash spot this is.
Rondale Moore is another mispriced young prospect sitting at the stone minimum of 3K on DraftKings. He’ll be an owned value play, and for a good reason. According to a consensus of models across the industry, he’s clearly one of the best PPD WRs on the slate.
When prices were released for this slate, there was no expectation that his role would be as substantial as it ultimately projects to be. This is one of those spots that you really have to jump on in week one if you are a sharp NFL DFSer. You aren’t going to see these types of mispricings often during most of the season.
Most would have anticipated Christian Kirk winning the first-team slot WR role. Then Moore beat him out, thrusting him into a position that would warrant a considerably higher price tag. On top of it, he’s a top-level prospect with immense physical talent and the ability to get free out in the open if the opportunity presents itself. He has a decent, if not significant, amount of upside in addition to a high PPD median.
On top of everything else, the Arizona/Tennessee game has the second-highest total on the slate at 51.5 and a tight spread, so it projects to be a shootout. The combination of mispricing based on role, raw talent, and favorable game environment make this one of the best WR spots on the slate.
Week one NFL is a great time to profit on uncertain situations throughout the league and blatant mispricings due to salaries being released well before total clarity on offensive roles. We have a lot of value at wide receiver. Still, we also need to make sure to realize how uncertain some of these new situations are. We should still respect the ceiling of our tried-and-true studs in established situations at the position when constructing our rosters.
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