LV (19.25) @ KC (28.75)
This division rivalry matchup between Las Vegas and Kansas City is tied for the third-highest total on the slate. These teams are both toward the bottom of the league defensively, and this one has good potential for a lot of offense. If there is an issue, Kansas City is a pretty significant favorite, and we’d want the game to stay close for it to reach its full ceiling potential. This concern should only lower game stack ownership, which we love for GPPs.
This game stack appears to be going severely under-owned, considering its potential to be one of the best of the week for stacking. Neither quarterback is getting a ton of ownership, even though Patrick Mahomes is one of the best QBs in the NFL for DFS and real-life alike. No one likes to play Derek Carr, but he can have sneaky DFS upside, especially since he should be playing from behind.
The only players from this game gaining significant ownership are running backs Josh Jacobs and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Raiders wide receiver Hunter Renfrow. Simply stack the game by running Derek Carr with the popular Renfrow with Edwards-Helaire on the other side. You gain a bit of correlation while using two popular pieces. Run Carr with Renfrow and/or another lower-owned pass catcher, and you take it a step further. You can also use Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce as your KC bring-back to get even more different.
On the flip side, you can run a Patrick Mahomes stack to a fairly low-owned Tyreek Hill and/or Travis Kelce and run it back with one of the two popular Raiders pieces. Oddly, a Mahomes stack in a game where the Chiefs’ implied team total is approaching 30 could be a fairly GPP move this week.
Things are looking very different on FanDuel, where Patrick Mahomes will be a popular option. Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill will all be popular, as will Renfrow and both running backs. It is going to be harder to get different on FanDuel here. If you want to run a Mahomes stack, Hill should be a bit lower owned than Kelce, which is one angle. A lot of the field may also opt not to play all three due to the high price of the whole stack. Using an ancillary Chiefs receiver like Mecole Hardman is another way to go. One could also go with a low-owned Raiders bring-back other than Renfrow or Jacobs.
Yet, the best way to get different is to simply run a Carr stack instead. Despite high ownership on this game and multiple stacking partners in Jacobs and Renfrow, he should be very low-owned. I don’t mind running Carr with Jacobs, considering he may be heavily involved in the passing game, particularly with Kenyan Drake sidelined. We saw him catch nine passes just last week. It is remarkable that you can play so much chalk here but in a unique way by simply playing Carr as the QB in a game stack.
SF (25) @ CIN (23.5)
Here we have a game with the second-highest total on the slate, yet it doesn’t appear to be getting much attention from a game-stacking perspective. This is an excellent opportunity in GPPs.
As I was writing this, San Francisco lead running back Eli Mitchell was ruled out. While ownership projections throughout the industry have not been updated, I assume that Jeff Wilson Jr. will be a prevalent value option in Mitchell’s stead. I will proceed accordingly.
Neither quarterback is getting much DraftKings ownership at all. The running backs on both sides of the game, Joe Mixon (questionable) and Jeff Wilson Jr. should be popular options. Particularly Wilson Jr. We should also see a bit of ownership on the Bengals wideouts, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (questionable). It seems that the majority of the field is going to play the running game here and/or one-off a receiver.
It is easy to leverage this chalk by playing one of the quarterbacks. With Chase, Higgins, and Wilson Jr. being good plays, the most straightforward move is to just play a Joe Burrow (questionable) passing stack with Wilson Jr. on the other side. Play an SF pass-catcher like Kittle or Aiyuk (Samuel also if he does suit up), and you take it a step further.
The even more off-the-board move would be to run Jimmy G with one or more of his pass-catchers and bring it back with a Bengal. This would give you direct leverage from the extremely popular Wilson Jr. while still gaining access to critical pieces of this game environment.
Although Mixon will not be as popular, things are looking reasonably similar on FanDuel. George Kittle will get more ownership since it is easier to pay up at tight-end on FD. Higgins and Chase will be more chalky on FD. Joe Burrow may also be a little more popular there.
Since the Bengals receiving game will be chalky while Mixon will gain little ownership on FanDuel, the move here is to play Mixon. Mixon is also a running back suited for FanDuel scoring, which favors rushing RBs with high touchdown equity. While I’m not crazy about playing Jimmy Garoppolo, a Jimmy G passing stack with Mixon on the other side would be the most leveraged way to play this.
I think there is great merit to secondary stacking this game as well. One could play Mixon with Kittle or another San Francisco pass-catcher without a QB for an excellent secondary correlation offering direct leverage over the very chalky Bengals passing game and San Francisco running game.