BUF (25) @ TB (28.5)
The matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers sticks off the page as one of the apparent marquee matchups for DFS in week 14. You’ve got a couple of pass happy-teams with two of the best quarterbacks for DFS all year. On top of it, Tampa Bay’s pass-funnel defense even further ensures that the Bills will do almost nothing but throw the ball.
If there is one bad thing, both teams have excellent defenses, so it will be a battle of strength against strength. Still, the total says it all, and this should be a competitive affair meaning significant shootout potential.
This will be a trendy game for DFS this week for all of these reasons. I see some straightforward ways to get different and play it to take advantage of the game environment but still get unique in tournaments.
On DraftKings, we will see considerably more ownership on Josh Allen than Tom Brady. They are about the same price, but the perception is that Josh Allen is a much better DFS quarterback due to his rushing upside. The Bills are perceived as a stricter defense than Tampa Bay, and Tampa Bay’s defense will ensure that Buffalo doesn’t use their running backs much. All of this should combine to result in higher Allen ownership. The popular way to play this game is Allen to a chalky Stefon Diggs and/or Cole Beasley with a Leonard Fournette run-back.
We’re getting low projected ownership on Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox in terms of running Allen stacks. Using one of these guys in your Allen lineups is an easy way to get different. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski are also getting relatively low ownership. Using any of them as your Tampa Bay bring-back rather than Leonard Fournette is another easy way to differentiate.
The more aggressive GPP move is to play a Brady stack instead. Brady to one to two of Godwin/Evans/Gronk/Fournette will be considerably less owned than Bills stacks. Then just run it back with the Bills pass catcher of your choice. Many people will likely be reluctant to play Brady with Fournette even though Fournette is a chalky option on this slate. Fournette is getting a ton of targets out of the backfield and is perfectly playable with Brady.
Ownership on the two quarterbacks should be a bit more even on FanDuel. Brady is a good bit cheaper, which probably factors into it. Otherwise, according to current ownership projections, everything is pretty similar, with Stefon Diggs and Leonard Fournette getting over double what anyone else is. Just run your stack with other pieces from this game, and you are way more unique with minimal effort.
DAL (26.25) @ WAS (21.75)
This matchup between Dallas and Washington is tied for the third-highest total on this slate and is sure to be a popular one this week. The good thing is that based on current ownership projections, certain pieces are gaining a lot of steam while the full game stack may be under-owned. This gives us an excellent opportunity for leverage in tournaments.
Based on current ownership projections, it looks like the most owned piece here will be Football Team running back Antonio Gibson. Taylor Heinicke appears to be one of the higher-owned quarterbacks of the week, likely as he offers a lot of value at just $5,500. We should see some Heinicke stacks paired with Terry McLaurin, although McLaurin himself is not gaining a ton of ownership. No one on the Cowboys is gaining much steam here. This is odd considering that they are favored, have a team total over 26, and this is a game with other used pieces.
Simply running Heinicke to McLaurin with a Cowboys bring-back appears to be a somewhat leveraged move, oddly. You gain leverage from the chalky Antonio Gibson and access this game with reasonably low-owned pieces for their positions outside of Heinicke. Run Ezekiel Elliott, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, or Dalton Schultz on the other side of a Heinicke passing stack, and you are good to go. You might also consider including low-owned tight-end Ricky Seals-Jones (questionable) in Washington passing stacks.
You can take it a step further and run the even lower-owned Dak Prescott stack, which I like a lot. Prescott to one or two of his receivers with Antonio Gibson on the other side enables you to play the chalky Gibson in a lower-owned and correlated build. Eschewing Gibson in favor of McLaurin takes it a step further.
The situation is quite a bit different on FanDuel. Both quarterbacks should be very low-owned. Ezekiel Elliott may gain a bit more ownership than Antonio Gibson, and Gibson is not chalky at all. Meanwhile, Terry McLaurin should be very high-owned. The tight-ends and the Cowboys receivers should gain very little ownership.
This one is easy: few appear to be stacking this game despite it being a great game environment and certain pieces being owned. Just stacking either quarterback with a receiver and a bring-back on the other side is an easy leverage move. Heinicke to McLaurin with Elliott would be the most obvious and chalky way to do it. Use a Cowboys receiver instead of Elliott, and you are less chalky.
Go any other route, and you are even more off-the-board. With McLaurin on the other side, Dak Prescott to one or more of his receivers enables you to play the chalky McLaurin in a correlated and lower-owned build. You can also go with a Dak stack and play the low-owned Antonio Gibson for even more direct leverage from the chalky McLaurin.
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