Bills (31.5) @ Jaguars (17)
Once again, we have a situation where it is hard not to include the Bills game as a top game stack for NFL DFS despite the blowout potential. The Bills’ implied team total is so lofty that this is one of the highest on the slate despite the -14.5 spread. We have to keep in mind each week that even if the Bills are big favorites, they are just not a run-heavy team and will tend to pour it on regardless of the score.
The Jaguars are last in total defensive DVOA, and in particular, last in pass DVOA. This couldn’t be more of a smash spot for the Bills’ passing game and offense overall. There is only one concern, and that is the blowout. This may, however, serve to cap ownership on what should otherwise be the chalkiest spot on the slate.
Of course, Josh Allen stacks with any of Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, or Emmanuel Sanders are always in play. The question remains who to bring it back with on the Jaguars if hoping for a closer than expected game. In this case, there is actually a clear option that also fills a pesky tight end slot in Jacksonville tight end Dan Arnold. He’s taken on a big role in their offense and comes at a cheap price tag on DraftKings and FanDuel. The only issue is that he should gain significant ownership, and this will be the common way to stack this game. Allen-Diggs or Allen-Beasley stacks with Arnold on the other side will not be sneaky.
Buffalo has the top overall defensive DVOA in the league and is not a team to target through the air or on the ground. Yet, if you are hoping for this game to stay close and the Bills to keep the pedal to the metal offensively, there would be an argument for bringing it back with an all but unowned Laviska Shenault or Marvin Jones Jr. at WR. On top of it, James Robinson is viable most every week at RB and should be mostly unowned as well, although he may or may not suit up as he is currently questionable. If he was to sit, Carlos Hyde could become a value running back option despite his questionable fantasy outlook at this stage in his career. Particularly against a stout Bills run defense.
Although a lower-owned bring-back on the Jaguars is a contrarian option, I may prefer to simply not bring it back at all. Since so many Bills stacks will conveniently include a chalky Dan Arnold, I don’t mind running a Bills stack with no bring back and hoping for Arnold to bust. There is only one tight end spot on DraftKings and FanDuel. If Arnold fails at 15+% ownership, particularly attached to Bills stacks, there is leverage to be had in Bills stacks with a different tight end.
As discussed before, the Bills have been a team that can put up big fantasy scores without games staying competitive. Forcing a bring-back may be fool’s gold when this game is very unlikely to stay close regardless of any individual Jaguar player’s performance.
Broncos (19.75) @ Cowboys (29.75)
This matchup between Denver and Dallas appears to be one of the more overlooked for full game stacking despite being tied for the second-highest total on the slate at 49.5. All of Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and CeeDee Lamb will gain some ownership to varying degrees depending on the DFS site based on pricing. Lamb should be lower-owned at his high FanDuel price. Elliott and Cooper should gain considerable ownership on both DK and FD, and Lamb should get some run on DK at his price. Yet, Dak Prescott is not projected for much ownership at all due to concerns with his health and the questionable tag. This could be a good opportunity to full-stack the Cowboys with Prescott and gain a lower-owned mode of exposure to a popular high team total offense. It isn’t even absurd to stack Prescott with Elliott considering his substantial target volume out of the backfield.
I think the real elephant in the room here is that there isn’t a single piece on the Broncos offense gaining any ownership despite multiple Dallas players being significant chalk. While Teddy Bridgewater is not a world-beater, he’s a competent enough quarterback to pay off his paltry price tag of just $5,300 on DraftKings. He’s also capable of facilitating enough offense for Denver’s pass catchers to achieve fantasy success. A contrarian unowned Bridgewater stack with one or more pass-catchers and one of Elliott/Cooper/Lamb is a leveraged way to attack this game. If playing pieces on the Dallas side, you would be hoping for a close game for the Cowboys to reach their ceiling anyway. This is also an inexpensive game stack that enables you to pay up elsewhere.
Playing a Broncos stack on the other side would be the most out-there contrarian move. Still, simply playing a Broncos piece in secondary correlation stacks with one of Elliott/Cooper/Lamb hoping for an optimal game environment is a good way to access the chalky Cowboys in a leveraged manner. All of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and even step-in TE1 Albert Okwuegbunam with Noah Fant out are in play and bring-backs. One could take a shot on the running backs, but the split between Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams makes both fringey plays at best.
Even if you aren’t fully stacking this game with one of the QBs, secondary stacking with a piece from both sides in NFL GPPs is a great way to leverage the high Cowboys ownership and still gain access to their juicy team total.
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