Titans (24.5) @ Colts (26)
We have a tough week in NFL DFS in that the teams with the highest implied team totals are in games that don’t project to be close. While this game is projected to be slow-paced with the fewest plays run on the board, it has the highest total. Plus, the spread is close. High totals and competitive spreads are what we look for in NFL game stacks.
On top of it, neither team appears to be in a particularly great spot here. We should see lower ownership on this game than is likely warranted based on the total and the spread. You would rarely get possibly sub-5% ownership on quarterbacks in a game that projects to stay close with the highest total on the board. The Colts have an above-average defense, pace of play should be slow, and neither quarterback is seen as a particularly great DFS asset. Since all of this will lower ownership, this may be an oddly sneaky game to target.
Derrick Henry is currently getting some ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but nothing massive. On DraftKings, Michael Pittman Jr., on the other side, should be pretty popular. Yet, no additional pieces are garnering significant ownership. Due to the low ownership on both QBs, it does not appear that this game will be popular among the field for full game-stacking.
With Henry being far from chalk and Tannehill being likely sub 5% owned, you can attack the Titans’ side from either the passing or running angle. All while still achieving leverage in tournaments. You have a perfect stacking partner for Tannehill stacks with AJ Brown, and Julio Jones may be relevant if he suits up. On top of it, Tannehill showed the ability to be a tournament-winning quarterback last year. The Titans’ passing game has been trending upwards as their play-action drop-backs have increased. The Colts have had a much better rush defense (the best in the league by some metrics) than pass, adding even more credence to a Titans passing stack.
It is hard to feel good about stacking Carson Wentz on the other side. Still, with Michael Pittman Jr. gaining considerable ownership on DK while Wentz is gaining almost none, this is a great way to leverage a chalky play in Pittman. Just pair him with a virtually unowned Wentz. The Titans’ pass defense has been among the worst in the league, and this could be a good spot for the Colts’ passing attack. The Colts’ running game is also viable here. Jonathan Taylor will likely come at low ownership on both sites due to his elevated price tag. However, it may well be warranted considering his recent production and a good match-up against a weak Tennessee run defense.
There are a lot of ways you can tackle stacking this game. Here are just a few without even getting into some of the fringier secondary wide receivers and the tight ends:
- Tannehill – AJ Brown + Pittman Jr.
- Tannehill – AJ Brown + Taylor
- Wentz – Pittman Jr. + Henry
- Wentz – Pittman Jr. + AJ Brown
- Pittman Jr. + Henry (mini-secondary correlation)
- AJ Brown + Taylor (mini-secondary correlation)
- AJ Brown + Pittman Jr. (mini-secondary correlation)
Dolphins (17.25) @ Bills (31.25)
The Bills’ implied team total in this game speaks for itself at over 30. The problem here is that the spread is so great that you have to wonder if the Bills have the luxury of taking their feet off the gas, capping their upside in this match-up. Still, we can’t ignore a high-powered, pass-centric Bills offensive attack in a game where they are projected to score over 30 points.
We can expect Josh Allen to be one of the highest-owned quarterbacks on the week at likely 10+% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Due to pricing differences, Cole Beasley projects to be his highest-owned stacking partner on DraftKings. Stefon Diggs’ ownership should be a bit lower there. On FanDuel, Diggs projects to be one of the highest-owned wide receivers on the slate. Allen with any combination of Diggs/Beasley/Emanuel Sanders is quite viable for stacking.
The million-dollar question will be whether we can find anyone on Miami to bring it back with, hoping for a close game script. If we can’t, the viability of the Bills passing stack for a ceiling performance comes into some question. It will boil down to these choices: Dolphins running back Myles Gaskin, wide receiver DeVante Parker (if he plays), fellow wideout Jaylen Waddle, or tight-end Mike Gesicki. Waddle and Gesicki would become much better plays if Parker sits and be the easy bring-backs. None of them are gaining much ownership at all other than Gaskin at his FanDuel price at the moment.
Most of the field will likely stack Allen and one or two of his pass-catchers with no Miami bring-back. This may be acceptable and even optimal rather than forcing a bring-back. Although you would gain tournament leverage by running it back with a Miami piece, it may not be worth it. It may be best to differentiate elsewhere in your lineup. The Bills are such a pass-heavy team that even if they are blowing Miami out, that does not necessarily mean they will lean on the run game.
I won’t be redundant in going into every way you can stack this game. Still, there are tons of options with three relevant Bills receivers, and four possible viable bring backs on Miami. The craziest and most leveraged option would be to run a Tua Tagovailoa stack with one of his pass-catchers and a Bills piece on the other side. I’m not sure I would recommend this, but you would undoubtedly gain massive leverage if this game stays close, and the Bills still reach their implied total.