After last week’s shortened NFL slate due to the Thursday Thanksgiving three-gamer, we’re back to a full-sized NFL main slate this Sunday. Let’s look at some of the best game stacks of the week and how we can attack them and find unique ways to gain leverage against the field.
SF (24.25) @ SEA (21.25)
While the total on this game is marginal at 45.5, this is a sneaky game with a high chance to stay close and result in some back-and-forth offense with a tight three-point spread. Russell Wilson has been looking rough of late since coming back from injury and even before, but we all know what he is capable of at his best.
We have a bit of value in this game as Deebo Samuel is out this week, leaving San Francisco without their WR1. This opens the door for Brandon Aiyuk to step into that role. It also elevates Jauan Jennings into a potentially significant role in the passing game at only $3,100 on DraftKings.
The key pieces gaining ownership here are Eli Mitchell, Jauan Jennings, and Tyler Lockett on DK. On FanDuel, Seattle tight end Gerald Everett should gain some traction, and Tyler Lockett appears extremely chalky at his $6,900 price tag.
While we have owned pieces on both sides of this game, neither quarterback is gaining much traction at all. This makes it a prime opportunity to stack a game featuring good, chalky plays and get different while still playing the chalk. In addition, we gain correlative benefits while the rest of the field plays the best options here as one-offs.
A simple Russell Wilson to a chalky Tyler Lockett and Gerald Everett on FanDuel while playing a low-owned Eli Mitchell on the other side is an excellent example of a way to stack this game uniquely.
On DraftKings, you could run Garoppolo to Aiyuk and/or Jennings with a Lockett bring-back to attack the game environment and get away from the Mitchell chalk.
This is a risky game that doesn’t necessarily scream DFS production. Still, because there are popular pieces on both sides that will be highly owned, yet the game itself is gaining no traction for stacking, this is an excellent spot to attack for GPPs.
LAC (23.75) @ CIN (26.75)
One of the marquee matchups of the week for NFL DFS will be the Chargers against the Bengals in Cincinnati. This game features a 50.5 total and a tight three-point spread and looks like a matchup that could result in offensive fireworks and a lot of DFS scoring.
This is an exciting game in that common wisdom all season says that the Chargers are a run-funnel defense. They commit to stopping big plays through the air and beg the opposition to run. They have, however, considerably deviated from this strategy recently as they’ve been torn up in the ground game all year. On the other hand, the Bengals started the year as a highly pass-heavy team and then have gradually leaned heavily toward the run.
If going on the perception of these teams we’ve developed through the first few weeks of the year, we’d see Cincinnati as a pass-heavy offense. We’d also see Los Angeles as a tough defense on the pass and easy on the run. However, there has been a shift on both sides recently. We need to consider that when looking at how to attack this game in DFS.
On DraftKings and FanDuel alike, we’re going to see a ton of ownership on Justin Herbert at quarterback and very little on Joe Burrow on the other side. Keenan Allen should be the most popular receiver on both sites. At the same time, Mike Williams and Tee Higgins should gain a bit of ownership. Both running backs in Austin Ekeler and Joe Mixon will be owned on DraftKings. Mixon should see less FanDuel popularity at his hefty price tag. Interestingly, at their low $3,600 price, the Chargers defense actually projects to be pretty popular on FanDuel, which is unusual for a game that many people are looking to for stacking.
The standard way to stack this game on DraftKings will be Herbert to Allen and/or Williams/Ekeler with Tee Higgins or Joe Mixon on the other side. It will be similar on FanDuel, although it should be mostly Higgins, not Mixon as the bring-back.
It is straightforward to get different with this game by stacking Burrow with one to two of Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, or Tyler Boyd with one of Ekeler/Allen/Williams on the other side. Even if stacking the Chargers, simply playing Chase or Boyd over Higgins as your bring-back is another easy differentiation method.
On FanDuel, Joe Mixon is likely to get severely overlooked due to finally being priced up to over $9,000. However, there is a good reason for this, as he has been one of the most optimal running backs all year for FanDuel scoring. Since FanDuel is a half-PPR site, it values touchdown-scoring backs who get most of their work on the ground over pass-catching backs that rack up PPR points. This makes Mixon a top-level FanDuel running back and someone I’d like to be over the field on this week in stacks of this game. A Herbert stack to one or more of his pass-catchers with Mixon on the other side is a great way to differentiate FanDuel lineups this week.
Neither tight end is a particularly great play on either DK or FD. Still, tacking Jared Cook or C.J. Uzomah onto stacks with their QB to fill the TE position is another good way to get a lower-owned construction. All while we are stacking this game and jamming additional correlation into our lineups.