We have an interesting smaller NFL DFS main slate than usual this week since we had a three-game Thanksgiving Day slate. On this ten-gamer, we don’t have any huge favorites. The most significant spread as of now is New England as seven-point favorites over Tennessee. This means we have a lot of viable DFS game environments with the potential for shootouts. Let’s look at some of the top game stacks of the week and how we can gain some leverage against the field with how we attack them.
PHI (24.5) @ NYG (21)
This one may go close to entirely under the radar for full game stacking. Yet, it has excellent potential for surprise DFS fireworks. With the Eagles’ currently run-happy defense, Miles Sanders may gain a good bit of ownership traction. Dallas Goedert should be a popular tight end, and Saquon Barkley may get a bit of ownership at his DraftKings price if he suits up. However, it doesn’t look like either quarterback is gaining too much ownership, nor are any receivers.
There is a straightforward way to tackle this game in a way that makes sense and offers leverage. The Giants’ passing offense does not appear to be gaining any traction throughout the industry. There is a reason for this, considering that they will be without Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard. Yet, what is being overlooked here is that this just condenses the target tree and offers us value in Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton, and Even Engram. Saquon Barkley is also involved enough in the passing game to stack with Daniel Jones at QB.
It makes sense that no one on the Eagles’ WR corps would be gaining any ownership considering their run-centric offense and lack of passing volume. A person could get super contrarian and play Hurts stacks with Eagles WR1 Devonta Smith. Even Hurts to the chalky Goedert may offer some leverage considering that Hurts himself should be low-owned.
Yet, the better leverage option here as I see it is to stack Daniel Jones with one or more of his pass-catchers. Then play one of the apparent “good plays” on Philadelphia on the other side (Goedert or Sanders). This should be a very low-owned and leveraged way of getting exposure to the chalk in this game.
I emphasize that while the field will shy away from the Giants’ passing game due to the injuries, it can easily be seen as a plus. We know where the ball is going and are getting excellent prices on pass catchers with a now elevated role in the Giants’ offense.
TB (28) @ IND (25)
At the top of the list for game stacking is the matchup between the Buccaneers and Colts. With the total sitting at 53 and a three-point spread, this one has DFS scoring potential written all over it.
There is a prevalent way that the majority of the field will build in this game. Brady to Godwin stacks with Michael Pittman on the other side will be the standard build. Some will add Gronkowski for a cheap correlated tight end on DraftKings. It is incredible just how easy it actually is to get completely different within this game environment in various ways.
For one, ownership on Mike Evans is coming in way lower than Chris Godwin even though they are around the same price on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This is pretty silly and arbitrary, considering that they are practically the same play. I think ownership will be more even than current projections are showing by Sunday morning. Still, we may get a substantial ownership discount on Evans.
Carson Wentz is also gaining very little ownership while Tom Brady will be chalk. Simply flipping the build with a Wentz to Pittman stack and a Tampa Bay bring-back is an excellent leverage move. Wentz should be forced to pass if the game goes as expected, considering Tampa Bay has a near-impenetrable run defense.
This brings me to the next point: no one will be playing Jonathan Taylor despite him being one of the best running backs in the league. He just last week broke the slate against an also very tough Bills run defense. Simply playing Taylor on the other side of Brady stacks rather than Pittman is a great way to get different. Plus, if you don’t think Taylor can get there, why would you not consider playing Wentz, assuming that the Colts will have to pass?
One last note is that Leonard Fournette is gaining ownership on both sites, particularly FanDuel. He projects decently for his price in what should be a high-scoring game environment. I’m not sure how many people are stacking him with Brady, although he does catch passes out of the backfield. People tend to shy away from stacking a quarterback with a running back. Playing Brady with Fournette and a Buccaneers WR or TE is another way to potentially get a bit different here. Fournette is also a great bring-back in Wentz stacks, assuming a game script where Tampa Bay is playing from ahead and the Colts are forced to air it out.
This one is pretty simple. Just don’t play a straight Brady/Godwin/Pittman or Brady/Godwin/Gronk/Pittman stack, and you should be relatively leveraged here despite stacking a chalk game.