GB (24.75) @ MIN (22.75)
Dome games have a tendency to produce on the DFS front compared to those played outdoors, particularly as we get into the colder months. Here we have a dome game that may not have a terribly high total, but a tight spread and a lot of shootout potential. This is not necessarily the most obviously positive game environment. Still, it should not gain a ton of ownership as a game stack and could be a sneaky GPP option.
On DraftKings, AJ Dillon should be mega-chalk, considering that Aaron Jones will be out. Davante Adams should also gain a good bit of ownership at wide receiver. These are the only pieces on Green Bay getting any traction. At the same time, Aaron Rodgers is only projected for marginal ownership. No one for Minnesota should be owned much at all outside of the ever-playable Dalvin Cook.
This is an excellent opportunity to gain leverage by playing what should be the chalk running back of the week in AJ Dillon in a game stack with low-owned pieces. A Kirk Cousins to Adam Thielen and/or Justin Jefferson stack with AJ Dillon on the other side is a great way to play the chalk in a leveraged manner. While Dalvin Cook and Davante Adams should get a decent amount of ownership, I don’t think Rodgers/Adams/Cook game stacks will be prevalent. It is excellent in NFL DFS to look for those places where you can play the best projected and highest-owned plays in a way that the field is not and get the best of both worlds.
Everything looks similar on FanDuel here in terms of ownership. Other than that, Aaron Rodgers should get a little bit more due to pricing differences. Adams and Dillon should literally be the two highest-owned players on the slate, yet this game stack does not appear to be among the most popular. This is an excellent opportunity to gain leverage while still playing the best plays in one of the better game environments this Sunday.
IND (21.25) @ BUF (28.25)
It seems like every week, we see the Bills in a game with one of the highest totals on the slate despite that total mainly coming from the Bills’ side of the game. Here we have what should be another lopsided affair. Yet, the Colts have shown enough life that they may be able to keep this one close enough for an actual ceiling performance from Buffalo.
On DraftKings, no piece on Indianapolis is getting any ownership. In contrast, Josh Allen and an underpriced Cole Beasley should get some traction. This is an excellent opportunity to bring it back with a low-owned Jonathan Taylor or Michael Pittman and hope for a close game to bring out the best in the Bills’ offense. It would also be an option to go super contrarian and stack Carson Wentz with Pittman on the other side and run it back with Beasley, Stefon Diggs, or Emmanuel Sanders.
On FanDuel, Indianapolis is gaining no ownership, while Allen, Diggs, and Beasley should be favored. Once again, running it back with an Indianapolis piece should help to differentiate your lineups. A Wentz stack with a Bills bring-back would take it to the next level of leverage, while, of course, risky against a stout Bills D.
ARI (25.25) @ SEA (23.25)
On DraftKings, James Conner, Tyler Lockett, and Gerald Everett should be owned in this game. Literally, no one else is gaining traction at all. The game has one of the highest totals on this slate and appears to be a close match-up based on the spread.
Conner is obviously going to be popular with his new workhorse role sans Kenyan Drake. Gerald Everett comes at an excellent value price tag, and Tyler Lockett’s price has dwindled to $6,000. It is easy to gain leverage on the chalk here by stacking a close to unowned Russell Wilson with Lockett (you could add Everett) and Conner. All while still playing two or three of the better plays on the slate.
Kyler Murray is currently questionable. Assuming he does suit up, a Cardinals passing stack with Lockett or Everett as a bring-back is another option to target the game environment. You can play some of the chalk plays with a lower-owned construction. All of the Cardinals’ wide receivers should go very low-owned and overlooked here.
On FanDuel, ownership is about the same, and I would apply the same game theory strategies for playing this game. One difference is that Zach Ertz should be a chalky tight end option on FanDuel, while Everett should see little TE ownership.
It is worth mentioning that DK Metcalf should go under-owned compared to Tyler Lockett on both sites. There is direct leverage in targeting him over Lockett in GPPs. We all know the ceiling he has, and a breakout game could indeed come at any time.