DAL (26.75) @ KC (29.25)
This matchup between the Cowboys and Chiefs is undoubtedly the most apparent smash spot on the week. With the high total and tight spread, this game will be hard to avoid. Both teams have tons of solid offensive weapons that we can feel comfortable targeting in DFS.
At the moment, it looks like we are going to see much lower ownership on the Cowboys side of this game versus the Chiefs. There may be a lot of leverage in targeting Cowboys stacks to get away from the chalk construction.
Ownership looks interesting on this game on DraftKings. Patrick Mahomes is gaining tons of ownership, while Darrel Williams is as well. Generally, people do not stack their QB with the RB from the same team. However, Williams is heavily involved in the passing game. Tyreek Hill should get a lot of ownership as a stacking partner with Mahomes. At the same time, Travis Kelce appears to be considerably less owned. the preferred choice on Dallas seems to be the value pick in Michael Gallup. It is difficult to stack this game with all the expensive pieces and build a decent lineup around it.
It would appear that on DraftKings, there are easy ways to stack this game in a leveraged manner. Travis Kelce should be considerably less owned than Tyreek Hill. Dalton Schultz is going low-owned, and Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb are showing marginal ownership. Ezekiel Elliott looks to be around 5% owned. Dak Prescott is gaining little ownership. It seems that the chalk way of playing this game is going to be Mahomes to Hill with a Gallup bring-back. Or possibly Mahomes/Williams/Hill with Gallup. We might also see some secondary stacks of Williams/Gallup.
We can use so many other combinations to play what might be the best game of the week in a unique way. A Prescott/Cooper/Kelce stack would be an example. Or Mahomes/Kelce/Elliott. I think this is a prime opportunity to gain leverage while still playing what should be the chalk game of the week. Pricing makes it challenging to fit some of these alternate stack combinations, and that is precisely why they will go low-owned.
It looks similar on FanDuel, where most of the QB ownership will go to Mahomes while Dak goes low-owned. Hill should get a good bit of ownership while no Dallas pass-catcher gains much traction. Travis Kelce should be a bit closer in ownership to Hill. This is due to the difference between FanDuel and DraftKings pricing. Darrel Williams should get plenty of ownership while Elliott goes low-owned. We should really look to targeting under-owned players in this game, such as Prescott, Elliott, Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, and Schultz, on FanDuel.
CIN (25.25) @ LV (24.25)
The Cincinnati/Las Vegas game appears to be second on the docket to DAL/KC for a beneficial DFS scoring game environment. One quickly notable thing when looking at DraftKings ownership is that everything is gravitating toward the passing game. Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs are going close to unowned while the major pass-catchers on both teams are gaining tons of steam. Derek Carr should be 10%+ owned, while Joe Burrow will earn a considerable amount of ownership.
It is an effortless leverage pivot to target this game environment alternately by playing a running back on one side with a quarterback to one or two pass catchers on the other. The Raiders have struggled to run the ball despite Josh Jacobs being a talented running back. I don’t think he’s unplayable, but I’d be more focused on Mixon bring-backs in Raiders’ passing stacks. Still, you can just as well go the other way around and run Burrow with one or more of his pass-catchers and a low-owned Josh Jacobs on the other side.
It looks similar on FanDuel other than that Joe Mixon should gain considerable ownership due to FanDuel pricing differences. The most leveraged way to get different with this game on FanDuel would undoubtedly be to run a Josh Jacobs bring-back to a Burrow Cincinnati stack.
Due to pricing differences, Carr stands to be higher-owned than Burrow on DraftKings, while it should be the other way around on FanDuel. Simply playing the lower-owned quarterback depending on site is an excellent way to differentiate your lineup while getting exposure to this game.
If you don’t choose to full-stack this game, there are great opportunities for secondary stocks. Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Ja’Marr Chase are viable on the Cincinnati side. Then run it back with Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, or Hunter Renfrow. You’ll have an excellent two-man secondary stack to add additional correlation to your lineup beyond your main game stack.