We have an unusual situation in week 15 where there aren’t any really high total games standing out over others for game stacking. Most of the better scenarios also involve games that may not stay close. Let’s take a look at some of the better options we have and how we might stack them up in a leveraged manner.
BUF (27.5) @ CAR (17)
As seems to be the case more often than not, Buffalo is a huge favorite in a game where Josh Allen is a very appealing DFS option. Yet, you wonder if the game can stay close enough for him to reach his ceiling. The good thing is that the Bills tend to pass regardless of the situation. They don’t take their foot off the gas as much as some teams when ahead.
We will see extensive Josh Allen (questionable) ownership, with Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, and Gabriel Davis being the preferred wide-receiver targets. Emmanuel Sanders is doubtful, which knocks Gabriel Davis into a WR3 role at just $3,700. Tight end Dawson Knox is the Buffalo pass-catching asset that is likely to be overlooked here. Including him in Allen stacks is an excellent way to differentiate your lineups.
No one in the running game on either team is getting much attention. The Bills’ backs are essentially unplayable on a full-sized NFL slate. Although Chuba Hubbard steps into a more significant role with Christian McCaffrey out, the Bills’ stout defense knocks him out of optimal playability contention.
Based on current ownership projections, it would appear that most of the field is going to stack Allen without bringing it back with a Carolina player. This is understandable considering that the Bills defense is a tough matchup, and no one really stands out on the Panthers as a good play. Yet, you are looking for the correlation of a close game to boost the Bills’ offensive ceiling potential. Plus, you get very low ownership on a simple bring-back. DJ Moore (questionable), Robby Anderson, and Chuba Hubbard are all potential options, and you could do worse.
Stacking Allen with a wide receiver and the low-owned Dawson Knox with a Carolina bring-back is a great way to play this popular Bills stack and gain some leverage and correlation at the same time.
ARI (30.25) @ DET (17.25)
Here we have another one of the most popular stacks of the week with Kyler Murray to one or more of his pass-catchers. Yet, again, we have a game that appears likely to blow out, which is pushing people away from stacking it up from both sides.
James Conner is questionable for the Cardinals backfield, while Chase Edmonds is likely to return from the IR. If both are active, it is less ideal for targeting either since they will share work. The one who plays would become a more vital play without the other. Conner is still playable even if Edmonds does come back, as he may have earned more of a workhorse role. They may also choose to ease Edmonds back into the action, and the game script should favor Conner’s ground-and-pound style. The Detroit running back situation is difficult to suss out with three guys who could get work. It is hard to recommend playing any of them.
Despite Murray being a top option at quarterback most weeks, the Arizona receiving corps has been notoriously difficult to target. It just got a bit simpler with DeAndre Hopkins now on the shelf. Christian Kirk, A.J. Green, and Rondale Moore are currently the three legitimate receiver options. Murray will be one of the chalkiest quarterbacks of the week, and it looks like the apparent stacking partner will be Christian Kirk. A.J. Green should get about half the ownership while Moore may get next to none. Stacking Murray with one of his lower-owned receivers, even as part of stacks with Kirk, is an excellent option in GPPs. Tight-end Zach Ertz is also likely to see next to no ownership and is a perfect add-on to Murray stacks.
Since the Detroit ground game will be tough to figure out, and they’re likely to be playing from behind, the receiving corps is where we are likely going to want to find our bring-back. It is hard to roster any pass-catcher when Jared Goff is the person throwing to them. Still, it is an excellent opportunity in tournaments when a team stack will be popular, yet no one on the other side is getting any ownership at all. Brandin Cooks is out, which opens up some opportunities for Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds (questionable). Even if Detroit gets battered, there is a reasonable likelihood that one of these guys will get there in garbage time.
SEA (20.5) @ LAR (24.5)
There are multiple other games with popular quarterbacks/team stacks on the slate that are unlikely to stay close. Here we have a game that not only has some offensive potential but a reasonable likelihood for both sides to produce.
Matthew Stafford will be a somewhat owned quarterback this week. Still, he should not be as chalky as some obvious quarterbacks in likely blowout scenarios (Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts). Pivoting to a Stafford stack in what should be a closer game automatically offers us a bit of an ownership discount on the field with more potential for positive game correlation. On the other side, Russell Wilson should be very low-owned, and it isn’t a terrible idea in GPPs to target either side here.
Sony Michel should gain some running-back ownership in the place of Darrell Henderson Jr. now that the latter has been ruled out due to COVID-19. The Seattle RBs will gain next to no ownership. Bringing back a Stafford stack with Rashaad Penny, mainly if the questionable Adrian Peterson sits, is not a terrible GPP possibility.
Tyler Lockett on the Seattle side and Odell Beckham Jr. for the Rams are both out due to COVID-19. This will make Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf (questionable) more popular options. There will be less competition for targets, theoretically upping their DFS value. This is all the more reason to stack up this game, considering that certain pieces will draw a lot of ownership. Yet, it may not be the most popular from a full-stacking perspective.
Freddie Swain should be the first man up for Seattle to pick up the slack for Lockett, while Van Jefferson should benefit from OBJ’s absence. Yet, neither is picking up much, if any, ownership. Adding one or the other to the stack makes it even more viable.
Gerald Everett should be somewhat rostered as a value tight end who may gain more of a role with Tyler Lockett out. Yet, Tyler Higbee (probable) on the Rams side does not appear to be owned at all. He could also be a significant beneficiary with one fewer mouth to feed in the Rams passing game due to the absence of OBJ. I like including him in LA stacks or as a bring-back to Seattle stacks.
This may be a somewhat underappreciated game to target on this slate with many lopsided games and much ownership on the quarterbacks in them. I like stacking it either way, with Stafford being more optimal and Russ providing more leverage in GPPs.