LAR (25.75) @ BAL (20.25)
Outside of the two stand-out 50+ point total games this week, this match-up between the Rams and Ravens looks like one of the more promising games for DFS production.
Matthew Stafford looks to be getting a little bit of ownership on both sites, but nothing crazy. Cooper Kupp will be owned per usual, but his price has gotten to the point of being astronomical. His ownership is not projected to be over 20%. Sony Michel looks popular in the running game on both sites, with Darrell Henderson Jr. set to miss. The Rams ancillary pass-catchers in Odell Beckham Jr., Van Jefferson, and Tyler Higbee should go very low-owned.
Lamar Jackson has some chance to play for Baltimore, but he most likely will sit, and Tyler Huntley will start. It is hard to gauge Huntley’s ownership, considering that Jackson has still not been ruled out. He should, by all rights, be one of the more popular quarterbacks of the week at his $5,600 price tag on DraftKings. He has been a more than capable backup when given a chance earlier this season and is a steal at that price. Yet, I would not be surprised to see him under-owned against the tough Rams defense. If Jackson does indeed play, we know his upside, although this is not an easy match-up.
The Baltimore running game should get little to no ownership, and Marquise Brown (questionable) and Mark Andrews are hard to gauge without knowing for sure if Lamar plays. If Huntley starts and becomes a popular option. His pass catchers will likely come with him and gain some steam.
As it stands right now, it looks like just about any way you stack this game, you are getting access to a potentially beneficial game environment. All with reasonable enough ownership. No one on Baltimore projects to be chalky at all, so simple Stafford to Kupp stacks with Andrews or Brown on the other side may be just fine. You can take it further by adding another Rams pass-catcher with Kupp at low ownership.
It may be that stacking the Huntley side of the game actually winds up being somewhat owned, but it is just too hard to say right now. In any event, I think it is worth getting exposure to this game in and outside of full game stacks. Since Michel will be a popular option, I like including Brown or Andrews in secondary correlations when using Michel.
This is an exciting game to consider, particularly with the haziness surrounding the Ravens quarterback situation. It could lead to much of the field tending to avoid the equation entirely, meaning lower ownership in large-field contests.
DEN (18.75) @ LAC (26.25)
This is another of the higher total games on the week outside of the two most prominent 50+ games. Here we do have the issue that Denver may not be able to keep up, yet, that will also lower game stack ownership. Also, on a week where weather will play into many games, this is one of these few where it will not be a factor.
On the Chargers’ side, Justin Herbert should gain moderate (5%-ish) ownership on both sites. The only slightly popular piece on DraftKings is likely to be Austin Ekeler. On FanDuel, it looks like Keenan Allen will be the more popular Charger, with Ekeler also picking up moderate ownership. Mike Williams (probable) appears to have been overlooked on both sites and could be a sneaky play here.
Drew Lock will be under center for Denver, which is certainly far from ideal for their offensive outlook. Lock himself, and all of his pass-catchers should be next to unowned on both sites. Neither running back will be popular on DraftKings unless Melvin Gordon III (questionable) or Javonte Green (questionable) sit. On FanDuel, despite the timeshare with Gordon, Javonte Williams may be somewhat chalky at $6,100.
The Chargers are known to give up a lot of yardage on the ground, so the prominent place to go here on Denver is with a running back. If Gordon misses, it becomes simple, and Williams should also pick up a lot of steam. Same with vice versa. If they both play, you will get a discount on Williams’ ownership yet deal with the less-than-ideal timeshare. Gordon himself could be a very off-the-board play assuming they both suit up.
It wouldn’t be entirely sneaky, particularly if Gordon cannot suit up to play Herbert to Allen with Javonte Williams on the other side. Yet, this is still a perfectly reasonable option ownership-wise, even in large-field GPPs. Add Mike Williams to your Herbert stack, and you get even more different. You can also pair Herbert with Ekeler considering the latter’s involvement in the passing game.
If you want to get more off-the-beaten-path, you could consider bringing back Chargers stacks with a Denver pass-catcher. This would not be the optimal way to play this game but should be highly low-owned. The absolute craziest way to go here would be to play a Drew Lock passing stack with a Charger on the other side. He is cheap and would enable you to pay up elsewhere in your lineup. Still, I don’t think it is necessary to get that out there, considering we have more viable ways to play this game that are low enough owned in their own right.
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