ARI (22.75) @ DAL (28.75)
We have the highest total of the week in a game that has a good chance of shooting out despite Dallas being reasonably big favorites. The great thing is that even though the total is so high, the chalk is not entirely unreasonable on many pieces here. This makes it an excellent game to target for GPPs.
On the Arizona side, no one is getting a whole lot of ownership outside of their now WR1 in the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk. Kyler Murray will pick up a dash of ownership at QB and Zach Ertz a bit at tight-end. Other than that, the team should be largely unowned. Namely, Ertz, and to an extent, Murray may be a bit more popular on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Since Kirk is a popular piece that projects well for his price on both sites, simply pairing him with Kyler Murray is a great way to leverage an already good play. You can also tack on Ertz to fill the tight-end spot. If you want to get even more out there, Antoine Wesley and A.J. Green should be all but entirely unowned in the passing game. As should Chase Edmonds, who factors into the air game heavily, especially in a come-from-behind game script.
Despite Dallas possessing one of the highest team totals on the slate, no one is gaining much ownership on either site outside of CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott on FanDuel. Prescott will get a bit on DraftKings, while Lamb and Michael Gallup should also see some, but nothing prohibitive in GPPs. You can easily pair a Cardinals passing stack with any of these pieces and still have some leverage in GPPs. Especially any combo other than using a Lamb bring-back on FanDuel.
The Dallas running game is gaining very little ownership due to the timeshare between Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Yet this should be a great spot considering that Dallas has a very high team total and is likely to be playing from ahead. Bringing back a Cardinals passing stack with a Dallas RB offers even more comparative leverage.
It is easy enough to do and still be pretty leveraged if you want to run this game’s somewhat more popular Dak Prescott side. Pairing Prescott with Lamb and running it back with Christian Kirk may be a bit chalky, particularly on FanDuel. On DraftKings, pairing Prescott with Amari Cooper and/or Dalton Schultz as part of the stack is an excellent way to get different. You can also use him with Lamb and/or Gallup and play anyone on Arizona as the bring-back other than Kirk and be more unique. On FanDuel, Lamb should be the only high-owned receiver for Dallas, so running either Gallup, Lamb, or Schultz at tight-end gains you leverage. You can even use the more chalky Kirk as your Arizona bring-back and be fine if you get different with the Dallas side of the stack.
I would definitely want to get exposure to this game in GPPs, whether full-game stacking or as secondary correlations or one-offs. Since there are a lot of lower-owned pieces within it, it is easy enough to get that exposure to the excellent game environment. All while still getting some leverage in large-field contests.
KC (27.75) @ CIN (23.25)
This matchup between the Chiefs and the Bengals has the second-highest total on the slate. It looks like a perfect game to target. I’m not crazy about the weather, but there is bad weather in many games this week, including rain, snow, and even colder temperatures. It will just be frigid in Cincinnati.
The craziest thing about this game: it would appear to be possibly the main game of the week to target. Yet, we aren’t seeing a ton of ownership on players outside of Tyreek Hill and Tee Higgins, specifically on FanDuel. You don’t even have to get too crazy with your stacks here on DraftKings.
Based on current DraftKings ownership projections, it looks like you can pretty much play this game any way you want and still have some leverage in GPPs. Yet, among those who are stacking the game, the most popular construction would be Mahomes to Tyreek Hill and/or Byron Pringle/Travis Kelce with Joe Mixon on the other side. The Bengals’ passing game appears to be getting very little ownership. If playing a Mahomes stack, I would be inclined to play a Bengals receiver on the other side rather than Joe Mixon to get a bit different from the field.
Playing a Joe Burrow stack is the most leveraged way to attack this game on DraftKings. He should be considerably less owned than Mahomes, and his receivers are overlooked. It would be acceptable to just play Tyreek Hill on the other side, considering that you already have low enough ownership of the Burrow stack. You can also play Byron Pringle for salary relief or any other Chiefs offensive piece.
On FanDuel, Mahomes, Hill, and Higgins will be popular. Based on current ownership projections, I would assume a game stack of these three would be the chalky way of stacking up this game. If you want to run Mahomes with Hill, including Byron Pringle or Mecole Hardman in your stack is one way to differentiate a bit. They will be very low-owned on FanDuel. Travis Kelce does not project for nearly the ownership of Hill, so using him instead of Hill or with (although this would be very expensive) is another GPP option. You can also just run a straight Mahomes to Hill stack and play Joe Mixon on the other side at considerably lower ownership than Tee Higgins. Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd, or C.J. Uzomah as your bring-back gives you even more of an ownership discount.
Like on DraftKings, your most effective option to differentiate is playing the Burrow side of the game. Burrow should be very low-owned on FanDuel compared to Mahomes. So, even just playing the chalky receiver combo of Hill/Higgins is more leveraged if you play Burrow on the other side. Include another Bengals pass-catcher in addition to or instead of Higgins, and you are even more unique. You can also replace Hill on the other side with Darrel Williams or Travis Kelce for a more significant ownership discount.
All-in-all I feel that this game is going under-owned considering the total, the spread, and the nature of these two offenses. Although the weather isn’t fantastic, it is actually better than many games this week which is yet another benefit. I’ll definitely want exposure in full game stacks and secondary correlations/one-offs.
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