It’s summertime, boys and girls. That means we’re getting closer to the NFL kickoff. I wanted to put a quick video together for you to talk about my Top 5 things to look for in NFL DFS for this upcoming season. I want to start with 4 keys/philosophies/team-building strategy to kick it off, and then round it out with 2 specific WR storylines to take advantage of early on to have an edge in your DFS lineups to start the year.
You won’t want to miss those 2 storylines so stick around to the end to check those out.
#1: Tempo & Plays Run Per Game
The first stats I want to look into is tempo and plays run per game. I get this data at DailyRoto.com. The reason I like this stat so much is a huge part of fantasy success is opportunity. Teams that run more plays per game have a higher chance of making plays.
When I’m looking into the slate on a Sunday I love looking for games that have 2 fast-paced teams squaring off against each other. The team that ran the most plays per game last season (the Chargers) ran 13 more plays per game than the slowest-paced team in the league! That means more targets, receptions, rushes, and opportunities for fantasy production.
#2 Target Share
This leads directly into my second stat I like to look into which is target share. You can get a good idea of projected pass attempts in a game by looking at their number of snaps run per game and their run/pass split. A team that runs 70 plays per game and passes the ball 60% of the time will attempt 42 passes in that game.
If you dive a bit deeper you can look at the target share per position. Let’s say this same team passes the ball to WR’s 60% of the time, RB’s 25% of the time, and TE’s 15% of the time.
I love looking for teams that have an RB target share of over 25%. DraftKings DFS uses full point PPR, so RB’s that are huge in the passing game (think Austin Ekeler and Alvin Kamara) outscore similar ranked RB’s due to this increase in volume.
So the team in our example passes the ball 42 times per game and 25% of those go to the RB, good for 10.5 RB targets per game. That’s a huge number if the team also uses 1 RB, for the most part, and a great way to stretch out some more points into your lineup.
#3: Load Management
Let’s talk about the first 17 game season for the NFL.
How is that going to affect injuries and “load management?” Are players like Julio Jones who already always skip Wednesday practices going to be a big risk of missing complete games for rest? It might be smart to pay closer attention to injury reports. Later in the year, it might even be a safer play to start more 1 o’clock players so you don’t have to scramble to replace 4’oclock players that your lineup was depending on.
#4: Cheap Tight Ends
I’m kinda like Pat McAfee the way I punt the Tight End position. I think this year there’s as big of a gap as ever from Kelce to the average fantasy tight end play. I will be contrarian in this spot, and find really cheap 1% or less owned guys, that can be the difference maker in your GPP if they can find the end zone. I am fading Kelce to be contrarian in my GPP lineups this year.
#5: Early Season Value
The two storylines I really wanted to dive into were about the WR1’s in the NFC East. Starting with Amari Cooper. Amari Cooper may be underrated. Dak is my early MVP bet with the volume and weapons he’ll have. With Dak as QB last year, Amari was overall WR1 avg-ing 21.3ppg (and that was with only 1 TD) and had targets of 14, 9, 12, 16 in those first 4 games with Dak.
What about Scary Terry McLaurin? He has the gunslinger Ryan Fitzmagic coming to town and he’s going into his 3rd season where many Wide Receivers make a big leap. He’s getting by far the best QB he’s ever played with, so I expect him to take a massive leap and be a huge value at the wide receiver position at the beginning of the year before sites like Draftkings and Fanduel start to price him accordingly as a top 5 fantasy wide receiver.
That’s all I have for you this week. But we have a ton of awesome stuff in the pipeline for you guys over here at Beer Life Sports so make sure you check us out before the season starts so we can get you ready and get you help to set your lineups on Sundays. Cody out!