The Professor’s Week 5 NFL Prop Bets

nfl week 5 prop bets

Week 5 in the NFL got off to a rough start from a viewing perspective with brutal offensive performances on Thursday Night by the Broncos and Colts, but The Oracle continued his dominant start to the football season with the under – if you haven’t signed up for his picks, be sure to do so today, because he is hammering the NCAA and NFL slates.

To add to The Oracle’s work, The Professor has a stack of prop bets ready for the NFL Weekend. Odds are from DraftKings.

New York Giants “at” Green Bay Packers, London

Aaron Rodgers, GB, Over 226.5 Passing Yards, -115 (Model: 253.2), Over 1.5 Pass TDs, -155 (Model: 2.3)

Allen Lazard, GB, Over 45.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model: 64.3), TD Scorer, +170 (Model: 0.4)

Romeo Doubs, GB, Over 43.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model: 57.9), TD Scorer, +195 (Model: 0.4)

Green Bay has a total of roughly 41 points against a run-heavy opponent for the second consecutive week, and after their game against the Patriots finished at 51 (and nearly 54, had Romeo Doubs not dropped a 40-yard TD), it seems reasonable to expect Green Bay’s offense to put up their share of the points toward the over in London. Green Bay’s offensive line is gelling as their two best players, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, get back in the mix, and the Giants will be without edge rusher Azeez Ojulari for this matchup, a big blow for a Giants defense that is short on difference-makers.

The Giants have held their opponents in check thus far, but they have faced four of the NFL’s weaker passing offenses in the Titans, Panthers, Cowboys, and Bears. Look for Aaron Rodgers to put on a show with his top two receivers, Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs, who have both been in the 90% neighborhood of offensive snaps in the past two weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Miles Sanders, PHI, Over 63.5 Rushing Yards, -115, (Model: 68.2)

It is frustratingly difficult to pick out TD scorers for the Philadelphia offense week-to-week, but Miles Sanders is gaining traction as a consistent presence in the run game. Granted, Trey Sermon had some nice runs last week, and adds to Philadelphia’s depth at the position, but Sanders has found a rhythm behind an utterly dominant offensive line. Sanders has hit at least 80 yards in 3 of 4 games this season; at about 5 yards a carry, look for him to keep the streak going against Arizona.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

Cam Akers, LAR, Under 45.5 Rushing Yards, -115, (Model: 38.5)

Cam Akers had 8 carries for 13 yards last week, a disappointment after his usage increased in Weeks 2 and 3. However, even if Akers matches his season-high 15 carries, he will be hard-pressed to top 3.0 yards per carry – he has only done so in one game this season. Los Angeles’s offensive line is a trainwreck, and the Dallas tandem of Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence is playing as well as any defensive line duo in the NFL. Dan Quinn’s group should snuff out the Los Angeles run game in this matchup.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Baker Mayfield, CAR, Under 196.5 Passing Yards, -115, (Model: 187.5), Over 0.5 Interceptions, -140, (Model: 1.2)

San Francisco’s defensive front is once again among the best in the NFL, with Charles Omenihu and Samson Ebukam becoming the latest journeymen to significantly outperform their career standard in San Francisco. With cornerback Charvarius Ward providing shutdown play on one corner, safety Talanoa Hufanga making plays all over the field, and edge rusher Nick Bosa likely to take some matchups with Panthers rookie left tackle Ikem Ekwonu, it is likely to be yet another long day for Baker Mayfield and the Carolina offense.

What’s Next

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.