Week 4 in the NFL got off to a rocky start with the situation around Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his brutal injuries over the past week, but fortunately, Miami’s quarterback was released from the hospital Thursday and able to fly home with the team.
The NFL will have more than a few questions to answer about that debacle, but we will shift our focus to the weekend slate, which features the first London game of the season. Here are some prop bets that the Professor’s NFL Model likes; remember, to get all the best picks on totals and spreads, sign up for The Oracle’s Picks today! Odds are from DraftKings.
New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Over 229.5 Passing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 252.5), Over 1.5 Pass TDs, -140 (Model Projection: 2.2)
Allen Lazard, WR, Over 37.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 52.0), TD Scorer, +160 (Model Projection: 0.4)
Romeo Doubs, WR, Over 41.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 55.9), TD Scorer, +180 (Model Projection: 0.4)
The idea that the Patriots have any sort of competent defense rests on the idea that the Dolphins went pedal to the metal in Week 1, which was not the case. The Dolphins took an early lead on a defensive touchdown, then played efficient, conservative football in a game they controlled the rest of the way.
Since then, the Patriots faced an inept Steelers offense and got lit up by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. New England’s dearth of standout players appears to be an obstacle future Hall-of-Fame coach Bill Belichick can’t overcome, and given that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers threw for 255 yards and 2 touchdowns against a Tampa defense that is arguably the best in the NFL, there’s a good chance the Packers will continue getting their passing game in sync against a Patriots defense that, outside of a few defensive tackles, arguably doesn’t have a single player who would start for Tampa Bay. Look for rookie Romeo Doubs to continue emerging alongside Allen Lazard after both played key roles in the win over the Buccaneers.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Baker Mayfield, Over 0.5 Interceptions, +100 (Model Projection: 0.9)
Marquise Brown, Over 58.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 68.0)
Baker Mayfield has only thrown one interception this season, but the Panthers have yet to be put in a situation where they need to chase the score, and Mayfield isn’t playing particularly well. Arizona is one crazy halftime rally away from an 0-3 start, but Marquise Brown has emerged as the clear-cut number one target, and we’ve yet to see a receiver who can truly test Carolina’s cornerbacks. Perhaps Jaycee Horn jumps on the opportunity to reassert himself as an ascending cornerback, but Brown has seen double-digit targets each of the past two weeks, which makes holding him under 59 yards a difficult ask. The Cardinals aren’t an efficient offense, but they should score some points, and with running back Christian McCaffrey dealing with a quad injury, Mayfield seems likely to make a few mistakes in this one.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Breece Hall, Over 16.5 Receiving Yards, -120 (Model Projection: 22.1)
Zach Wilson is back at starting quarterback for the Jets, and his touchdown over-under of 0.5, as well as the -230 odds on the over 0.5 interceptions for Wilson, tells you what the gambling community thinks of Wilson. As a result, we will stick to Hall’s receiving total, as the talented rookie figures to be a safety blanket for his second-year quarterback. Hall has posted 38, 10, and 53 receiving yards in his first three NFL games.
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans
Austin Ekeler, TD Scorer, -110 (Model Projection: 0.8 combined TDs)
It’s difficult to say whether Ekeler’s contributions will come on the ground or through the air, but with quarterback Justin Herbert moving around like a 50-year-old version of himself in last week’s lost to the Jaguars and left tackle Rashawn Slater out for the season with a torn biceps, the Chargers need to make Ekeler the focal point of their attack in a crucial game against the Texans to protect their quarterback. Houston beat the Chargers 41-29 last season to help keep Herbert and company out of the NFL Playoffs, so Los Angeles should be well-prepared for this game, particularly after last week’s loss dropped them to 1-2.
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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.
