The Professor’s Week 16 NFL Prop Bets

nfl week 16 prop bets

The NFL’s Thursday Night Football game saw the Jaguars continue their surge to the top of the AFC South while the Jets benched quarterback Zach Wilson during a dismal performance, but with a loaded Saturday slate, you won’t have to wait long for more NFL football!

To spice up Christmas Weekend, be sure to sign up for The Oracle’s picks to get all the best picks across all the major sports! With bowl season in full swing and the College Football Playoffs approaching, now is a great time to get signed up and make some money while you enjoy the action!

Now, on to nine prop bets that The Professor’s model likes in Week 16, which features eleven Saturday Games, three Sunday Games, and a Monday Night Game to cap off the Christmas weekend. All odds are from DraftKings.

New Orleans Saints at Cleveland Browns (Saturday)

Kareem Hunt, Over 29.5 Rushing Yds, -120 (Model Projection: 38.2)

The forecasts are calling for sustained 30 mph wind and gusts up to 65 mph in Cleveland this weekend, so it seems more than likely that the Browns and Saints will both rely on their ground games. Kareem Hunt has not seen double-digit carries in the past six games after reaching the number in six of the first eight games this season, but with starter Nick Chubb dinged up, Hunt could be in line for a more significant workload this week.

Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (Saturday)

Josh Allen, Over 48.5 Rush Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 51.2)

Justin Fields, Over 74.5 Rush Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 74.8)

The winds in the midwest are also expected to impact the Buffalo-Chicago game, and with Josh Allen and Justin Fields facing off, that could mean that the quarterbacks do their damage with their legs as much as their arms. Both quarterbacks regularly go over their respective rushing numbers when the weather isn’t a factor which adds to the appeal of this play.

Atlanta Falcons at Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)

Desmond Ridder, Under 0.5 Pass TDs, +100 (Model Projection: 0.8)

J.K. Dobbins, Over 56.5 Rushing Yds, -140 (Model Projection: 60.8)

Outside of Trevor Lawrence’s epic comeback four weeks ago, Baltimore has held four of their last five opponents to 14 or fewer points, and with Tyler Huntley set to start another game, the Ravens are likely to employ a run-heavy script to shorten the game.

The Falcons go with run-heavy scripts regardless of the situation; despite going down 14-0 in the first quarter to New Orleans last week, the Falcons finished with 39 rushes to 26 pass attempts. Given that rookie Desmond Ridder completed 50% of those attempts for 97 yards in his NFL debut, the Falcons probably couldn’t change that if they wanted to. Look for Ridder to have another underwhelming week, and for Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins to put up a third straight productive game as Baltimore tries to stay in the AFC North race.

Cincinnati Bengals at New England Patriots (Saturday)

Joe Burrow, Over 1.5 Pass TDs, -140 (Model Projection: 2.3)

We’re going on three full seasons of the Patriots bullying the bad teams in the NFL and struggling against legitimate contenders. The debacle on the final play overshadowed the fact that Mac Jones went 13 of 31 for 112 yards against a bad Raiders defense in a dome. Of course, that doesn’t have anything to do with Joe Burrow, but with the AFC’s #1 seed still in play, The Professor expects Cincinnati’s quarterback to put up multiple scores in a Bengals victory.

Green Bay Packers at Miami Dolphins (Sunday)

Aaron Rodgers, Over 1.5 Pass TDs, +100 (Model Projection: 1.9)

Christian Watson, TD Scorer, +120 (Model Projection: 0.44 Total TDs)

Jaylen Waddle, TD Scorer, +135 (Model Projection: 0.5 TDs)

The Dolphins didn’t pull out the win, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa got back on track against the Bills last week, and the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were once again the primary beneficiaries. Hill’s TD Scorer odds are at -125, so we’ll make the upside play and go with Waddle.

Green Bay had two turnovers against the Rams and kneeled out the final drive at the opponent’s one-yard line, so their point total wasn’t particularly high, but Aaron Rodgers and company were very efficient moving the ball last week. A debatable no-call on Jalen Ramsey on the first drive and a missed signal on the last drive prevented rookie Christian Watson from extending his touchdown streak, but in a game where the Packers are likely to need points, look for him to get back in the paint this week, whether it’s through the air or on the jet sweeps that Watson has been so deadly on. If you’re looking for longer odds to spice up this Christmas game, Romeo Doubs (+400) and Randall Cobb (+450) are both likely to see 4-5 targets on Sunday.

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.