The Professor’s Week 15 NFL Prop Bets

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nfl week 15 prop bets

Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers continued rolling along with a win over the Seattle Seahawks on the NFL’s Week 15 Thursday Night matchup, securing the NFC West for the 49ers and increasing the possibility that Seattle tumbles out of the playoff picture.

The Seahawks will need to get things back on track on a road trip to Kansas City, but there’s plenty of NFL Football between now and then, and we’re here to spice up your Sunday Slate with 14 prop bets that The Professor’s model likes this week. Before we do, be sure to sign up for the Oracle’s Picks today – the Oracle continued his monster 2022 NFL season with the under in the Seattle-San Francisco game, and with Bowl season upon us and the NBA and NHL in full swing, there will be no shortage of action over the holiday season!

Now, on to the prop bets; odds are from DraftKings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 Pass TDs, -130 (Model Projection: 1.9)

A.J. Brown Over 68.5 Receiving Yards, -125 (Model Projection: 73.0); TD Scorer -130 (Model Projection:0.6)

DeVonta Smith Over 55.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 62.4); TD Scorer +135 (Model Projection: 0.4)

Justin Fields, Over 69.5 Rushing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 73.4)

It’s set to be 25-30 degrees in Chicago, but with relatively little wind in the forecast, the Bears, who have turned into the ultimate over team between their dismal defense and Justin Fields’ unique talents, could be set up for another track meet. Rushing for at least 70 yards has become a matter of routine for Fields, who has gone over the mark in six of his last seven games and should be fresh coming off the bye. The Philadelphia defense is also likely to ease up at some point, as their offense should cut through Chicago’s lackluster defense.

The Eagles can beat you through the air or on the ground, but their preference seems to be to let Jalen Hurts sling it when that’s working, and just about everything has worked against the Bears’ defense recently. Tight end Dallas Goedert is slated to make his return to the lineup, but the Eagles have the luxury of easing him back in given how the duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith has played in his absence. The Professor will take both receivers to score and top their yardage totals and Hurts to throw for at least two scores.

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Over 301.5 Passing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 304.0); Over 1.5 Pass TDs, -190 (Model Projection: 2.2)

Keenan Allen, Over 71.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 74.1); TD Scorer, +135 (Model Projection: 0.4)

Mike Williams, Over 65.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 70.9); TD Scorer, +135 (Model Projection: 0.4)

Derrick Henry, Under 98.5 Rushing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 92.3)

The wheels are falling off the cart for Tennessee, as injuries on defense have kneecapped what was an above-average unit early in the season. That’s a distant memory; as Trevor Lawrence showed last week, this Titans secondary is vulnerable in the back end, and Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is rounding into form with both of his top receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, back in the fold. Herbert has thrown for 335 and 367 in his last two games, but has only thrown one touchdown in each contest; look for him to get the Chargers into the endzone through the air multiple times this week.

This scenario does not bode well for Derrick Henry’s rushing outlook. Henry had a great first half against Jacksonville last week, but he has had a rough go in 7 of the 8 other halves in his past four games. Part of that is game script; the Titans have lost three of their last four and four of their last six, and in those losses, Henry’s carries have been capped at 17. With yardage totals of 30, 38, 53, and 87 in the four games before he went for 121 against the Jags last week. The Professor will take Henry to stay under 98.5; the Chargers have struggled on defense, but this sets up for a game script that limits Henry’s opportunities.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady Over 0.5 Interceptions, -105 (Model Projection: 0.6)

Bengals nose tackle D.J. Reader was dominant against Nick Chubb and the Cleveland offensive line last week and should spearhead Cincinnati’s efforts to shut down Tampa Bay’s hit-and-miss run game. On the other side, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati offense should put up their share of points against a Tampa Bay defense that is a shell of its Super Bowl unit. It all adds up to a game where Tom Brady has to do too much and turnovers ensue.

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.