The Professor’s Week 14 NFL Prop Bets

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nfl week 14 prop bets

Thursday Night Football was a wild one, even by NFL standards, as the Raiders snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the Rams and their newly-acquired quarterback, Baker Mayfield, who took over for starter John Wolford after one series.

The NFL is a crazy league, but The Oracle has a bead on it (hit the under on Thursday Night Football!) as well as the other major sports leagues. With the holiday season approaching, be sure to sign up today to win some money as you take in all the action!

To add to your NFL weekend, here are ten prop bets that The Professor’s model likes in Week 14.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Jared Goff, Over 274.5 Passing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 283.3); Over 1.5 Pass TDs, -140 (Model Projection: 2.0)

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Over 83.5 Receiving Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 87.2)

Kirk Cousins, Over 1.5 Passing TDs, -145 (Model Projection: 2.2); Over 0.5 Interceptions, -105 (Model Projection: 0.7)

T.J. Hockenson, TD Scorer, +180 (Model Projection: 0.4)

Last week, Jets quarterback Mike White threw for 369 yards against this Minnesota secondary, and he would have topped 400 were it not for a dropped touchdown by Garrett Wilson after the rookie got behind the defense on a post route.

It’s unlikely Minnesota’s secondary improves much this week, and with the way Jared Goff has the Lions humming of late, there’s a solid chance that Detroit’s quarterback will top 300 yards for the second consecutive week. Rookie Jameson Williams is poised to take on an expanded role, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has topped 10 targets and 100 yards in three of the last four games, should be the primary beneficiary.

On the other side, Kirk Cousins is coming off a game that saw him make several mistakes that would have resulted in interceptions were it not for drops by the Jets. The Vikings should still put up points, and the odds on T.J. Hockenson make him an attractive play to score against his former team, but it would not surprise to see Cousins’ luck even out with an interception this week.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals

Deshaun Watson, Over 0.5 Interceptions, -130 (Model Projection: 0.8)

Deshaun Watson generally moved around like his old self last week, but it was an adventure every time he reared back to throw. He showed flashes of the accuracy and arm talent we had come to expect before his suspension, but he also short-hopped multiple throws and made some abysmal decisions.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals are unlikely to give Watson the sort of cushion that the Kyle Allen-led Houston Texans provided last week, and that could mean a still-shaky Watson has to air it out against the Bengals’ defense. Given Watson’s learning curve during his first three NFL games, which was as rapid an acclimation as I’ve seen at the position, things might click this week, but I’ll still bet on a few shaky reps during the game.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Garrett Wilson, TD Scorer, +240 (Model Projection: 0.4)

The forecast for rain and snow keeps me from betting on Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards (61.5, -125) and receptions (5.5, +120), but the TD scorer odds are too good to pass up on Wilson now that he’s got Mike White turning it loose to him downfield. Wilson dropped a touchdown on a post, and stepped out of the bounds on a long catch-and-run that nearly went the distance last week; given that he nearly went for 200+ and 2 TDs last week, he’s bound to get in the paint sooner or later.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy, Over 0.5 Interceptions, -120 (Model Projection: 0.9)

Brock Purdy did a solid job stepping in and leading the 49ers to a victory over the Dolphins last week, but the outcome may have been decidedly different if Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had not played his worst game of the season. Purdy has some positives to build on – one thing that stood out was a knack for hitting some quick-hitting seams – but there were also snaps that showed his inexperience, and that won’t all get cleaned up in a week. Throw in his average-at-best arm strength, and it wouldn’t surprise to see Purdy throw an interception for the second straight week.

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Chargers

Tyreek Hill, TD Scorer, +100 (Model Projection: 0.6)

It’s a bit concerning to bet on the Dolphins’ offense after quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s down game against the 49ers, but given that Tagovailoa had been highly accurate until Sunday’s dismal performance, he could certainly bounce back even as he battles through the ankle injury he suffered at the end of last week’s game. Nick Bosa and the 49ers’ front certainly blew up some plays, but if Tagovailoa’s ball placement had been on par with his season-to-date, Miami still would have hung 30+ on San Francisco, and the fact that Tyreek Hill continues to get open at every level of the field is one reason why. Look for Hill to continue his banner season against a Chargers’ secondary that lacks the corners to cover him.

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.