The Professor’s Week 13 NFL Prop Bets

114
nfl week 13 prop bets

The Bills maintained their recent run of dominance over the Patriots to kick off Week 13 in the NFL, and now the league is on to a weekend featuring some premier matchups, including a matchup of last season’s AFC Championship Game. This article will get you set up with nine prop bets that The Professor’s model likes this weekend.

Before we get started, be sure to sign up for The Oracle’s Picks today! The Oracle is putting together a huge 2022 on the NCAA and NFL lines, and now that the NBA and NHL are in full swing, there is no shortage of action!

Tennessee Titans at Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts, Over 1.5 Passing TDs, +115 (Model Projection: 1.5)

A.J. Brown, Over 74.5 Receiving Yds, -125 (Model Projection: 77.9), TD Scorer, +120 (Model Projection: 0.5)

There are a lot of storylines coming into this game, not least of which is Philadelphia’s ability to contain Titans running back Derrick Henry amidst a season of iffy run defense, but the biggest focus will be on receiver A.J. Brown’s first game against his former team. The Titans’ defense has been better against the run than the pass, and the Eagles have been able to shift gears on offense as needed; look for Jalen Hurts to make a point of getting the ball to Brown in this one.

Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans

Nick Chubb, Over 91.5 Rushing Yds, -130 (Model Projection: 92.0)

Shop around for a better price if you can get -115 for another yard or two; Nick Chubb’s projection for this week is at about the max end of the model, as everything sets up for Cleveland’s lead back to have another huge day on the ground. The Texans have been one of the NFL’s worst run defenses and Browns quarterback Deshaun Watson is playing his first NFL game in nearly two years; look for Cleveland to let Chubb get rolling as Watson gets his legs back against his former team.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals

Patrick Mahomes, Over 308.5 Passing Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 315.7), Over 2.5 TDs, +120 (Model Projection: 2.4)

Joe Burrow, Over 297.5 Passing Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 303.5), Over 2.5 TDs, +160 (Model Projection: 2.3)

The return of star receiver Ja’Marr Chase to Cincinnati’s offense makes it difficult to project target shares, but with both Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes enjoying standout seasons, everything is set up for another shootout in this rematch of last year’s AFC Championship. Burrow might spread the ball around to seven or eight players as Mahomes spreads it to fifteen, or the offenses might just run through Chase and Travis Kelce, but either way, both quarterbacks should put up numbers.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

Derek Carr, Over 253.5 Passing Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 284.7)

Davante Adams, TD Scorer, -155 (Model Projection: 0.7)

Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is coming off a 300+ total yard performance, including a walk-off touchdown in overtime, and now he gets a matchup against the Chargers’ awful run defense. If this were a video game, I’d like Jacobs to go for over 200 again, but a week after their lead back carried such a heavy load, I expect the Raiders to ask a bit more of Derek Carr and the passing game, given that the Chargers’ defense is generally about as inept against the pass as they are against the run. To round it out, we’ll take Davante Adams to get into the endzone as the Raiders try to build off of last week’s win.

What’s Next

You can check out more NFL content on BeerLife Sports, and remember to sign up for The Oracle’s picks today!

Website | + posts

Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.