The NFL Thanksgiving slate provided plenty of drama, and with all 32 teams in action for Week 12, the Sunday slate is stuffed even after the three-game Thanksgiving Day schedule.
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Now, let’s jump into nine prop bets that The Professor’s model likes from the Week 12 slate.
Las Vegas Raiders at Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III, Over 73.5 Rushing Yards, -125 (Model Projection: 81.0)
The weather forecast for the Raiders-Seahawks matchup indicates there is a significant chance of rain in this game, which will be Seattle’s first since playing Tampa Bay in Germany. Rookie running back Kenneth Walker III was slowed down by the Buccaneers’ defense, but he should have fresh legs after a week off, and the Raiders’ defense has been consistently bad against the run. Throw in the possibility that the rain calls for a run-heavy game script, and The Professor likes the Walker over at any number up to 79.5.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
Tyreek Hill, TD Scorer, -150 (Model Projection: 0.7)
DraftKings Special: Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle Both Over 100 Receiving Yards, +350 (Model Projections: 85.5 (Hill) and 77.3 (Waddle)
The Dolphins are coming off their bye week with a premier opportunity to pad out their stats against the Texans ahead of head coach Mike McDaniel’s return to San Francisco in Week 13. Look for Tua Tagovailoa to continue lighting it up with receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who are averaging 114.8 and 87.8 receiving yards per game, respectively. DraftKings does not have the individual receiving totals up yet, but they do have a special on Hill and Waddle to both top 100 yards, a very real possibility given how bad the Texans have been on defense. If your book has Hill and Waddle’s individual receiving totals, those overs could also be plays, but we’ll go with the DraftKings special here, as well as Hill to score a TD at -150.
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, Under 287.5 Passing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 286.3)
Isaiah Pacheco, Over 59.5 Rushing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 58.7)
The model’s projections for Patrick Mahomes’ passing yards and Isaiah Pacheco’s rushing yards come in very close to the numbers, but the model does not account for the very likely possibility that Mahomes could call it a day early with Bryce Perkins set to start at quarterback for the Rams. This is a week where the Chiefs probably don’t need Mahomes to be Superman, and with Pacheco racking up 82 and 107 yards in the past two games, this game sets up for Kansas City to lean on the rookie seventh-rounder.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
Sam Darnold, Under 0.5 Passing TDs, +135 (Model Projection: 0.9), Over 0.5 Interceptions, -200 (Model Projection: 1.1)
Russell Wilson, Over 0.5 Interceptions, +110 (Model Projection: 0.8)
The quarterback carousel continues to spin in Carolina, and The Professor isn’t betting on Sam Darnold suddenly righting the ship. Carolina hasn’t thrown a passing touchdown in two games, and the Broncos’ defense has continued to compete despite the trade of edge rusher Bradley Chubb at the trade deadline and the team’s offensive woes.
Speaking of offensive woes, the price on Russell Wilson to go under 1.5 passing touchdowns is too short to provide much value at -230, but the +110 price for Denver’s quarterback to throw at least one interception is more so. Wilson has an interception in four of his nine games this season, and five overall; look for him to make it six in a game where the total has hovered around 34 to 36, a preposterously low number for a 2022 NFL football game that isn’t dictated by weather.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
Tom Brady, Under 257.5 Passing Yds, -115 (Model Projection: 254.9)
The weather is supposed to be decent in Carolina, but Cleveland could be a different story on Sunday. With projections for a 97% chance of rain and 15+ mph winds, it is unlikely that either team will rack up significant volume in the passing game. Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s total is at 209.5, which is another possibility, but The Professor prefers the extra 50 yards on Brady’s number in a game where rookie running back Rachaad White may shoulder a significant portion of the offensive load.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.