The NFC South was thrown into further turmoil on Thursday Night Football, as the Carolina Panthers upended the Atlanta Falcons, dragging the now 4-6 Falcons behind the 4-5 Buccaneers in the NFL’s weakest division. Throw in the fact that P.J. Walker and the now 3-7 Panthers nearly beat the Falcons in their first matchup, and it’s clear that Atlanta’s early-season success was a mirage.
One thing that’s not a mirage is The Oracle’s continued success against the NCAA and NFL slates; to get the best spreads and totals texted directly to your phone, sign up today! Now, on to the rest of Week 10 in the NFL and 11 prop bets that The Professor’s model likes this week. Odds are from DraftKings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes, Over 2.5 Passing TDs, -105 (Model Projection: 2.6)
Trevor Lawrence, Over 0.5 Interceptions, -140 (Model Projection: 0.9)
Patrick Mahomes continues to find ways to get it done, even when it takes 68 pass attempts, and while the Chiefs may look to scale back the passing attack to some extent this week, Kansas City has consistently had a relatively high passing:rushing touchdown ratio through the Mahomes era. On the other side, Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is coming off an efficient game, but the combination of the looks that Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will throw at him and the strong possibility Jacksonville will play from behind makes this seem like a game where Lawrence’s turnover issues could pop up again.
Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins
Nick Chubb, Over 78.5 Rushing Yards, -120 (Model Projection: 83.1)
Tyreek Hill, TD Scorer, -135, (Model Projection: 0.7)
Jaylen Waddle, TD Scorer, -115 (Model Projection: 0.6)
Mike Gesicki, TD Scorer, +270 (Model Projection: 0.4)
Nick Chubb continues to put together a dominant season, and while Chubb was home resting last week, Miami’s defense was trying (and failing) to chase down Justin Fields, so his legs should be fresher than Miami’s defenders. Look for Chubb to continue to get the rock even if Miami’s offense continues to operate as smoothly as it typically has with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa at the helm. Bets on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to get in the endzone are solid, as the duo has accounted for nearly 2,000 of Miami’s 2,757 receiving yards and 9 of their 18 TDs, but the real value may be the +270 on Gesicki, who has 4 receiving touchdowns of his own.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Justin Fields, Over 1.5 Passing TDs, +195 (Model Projection: 2.0), Over 57.5 Rushing Yards, -125 (Model Projection: 63.2), TD Scorer, +105 (Model Projection: 0.6)
The DraftKings number is right in line with The Professor’s projection for Justin Fields in the Week 9 prop bets, but after Chicago’s ascending quarterback was unleashed on the Dolphins last week, The Professor is continuing to buy into Fields’ stock and his model projections continue to trend up.
While the Detroit Lions held the Green Bay Packers to 9 points last week, that had seemingly nothing to do with anything that the Lions’ defense did. Green Bay had no issues moving the ball, but quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a downright bizarre game, with his inaccurate passes leading not only to interceptions, which are rare enough for Rodgers, but red-zone interceptions, which are almost unheard of for number 12. Those unforced errors by Rodgers drove the score rather than the Detroit defense.
Now Detroit faces Fields, who has the feeling of a freight train picking up speed. The most important aspect is the supreme confidence Fields is playing with now that he has a feel for what he can do to affect NFL defenses; the uncertainty he once showed in the pocket is gone, and Fields has defenses on their heels.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
CeeDee Lamb, TD Scorer, +135 (Model Projection: 0.6)
CeeDee Lamb is looking to make up for lost time now that Dak Prescott is back at quarterback, and with a matchup against the reeling Packers on the slate, Lamb is well-positioned to do just that, particularly as the Packers lost their best pass rusher, edge Rashan Gary, to a torn ACL last week. The Dallas backfield picture is murky with Ezekiel Elliott likely to return, but there is a bit more clarity at receiver, where the Cowboys want to establish Lamb as their number one.
Los Angeles Chargers at San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey, Over 74.5 Rushing Yards, -115 (Model Projection: 78.1)
Most weeks, it can be tricky to predict exactly how Christian McCaffrey will get his yards, but against a Chargers’ run defense that continued to be one of the NFL’s most inept units in last week’s miraculous win against the Falcons, it is a bit more predictable. The 49ers are 7-point favorites at most books, a number that nobody would have imagined in Week 3, but it’s looking like Trent Williams and the rest of the 49ers’ line could have their way paving the road for McCaffrey.
What’s Next?
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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.
