The Professor’s NFL Week Two in Review

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The Professor's NFL Week Two in Review

Week 2 is in the books and it’s time to tally the Professor’s wins and losses. This article will review the Professor’s Prop Bet wins and losses, and he will assign grades to the Survivor Pool and DFS advice provided on Razor’s RedZone.

Prop Bets: 4-2 (Not Counting Upcoming Monday Night Game)

Mac Jones, QB, NE, DraftKings, Over 247.5 Passing Yards: Loss. 

Mac Jones had an efficient performance but didn’t need to pass for volume as the Patriots defense picked off Jets quarterback four times. Jones finished with 186 passing yards.

Justin Herbert, QB, LAC, DraftKings, Over 303.5 Passing Yds: Win

Dak Prescott, QB, DAL, DraftKings, Over 304.5 Passing Yds: Loss

Justin Herbert had a disappointing day in terms of TD:INT ratio, but did rack up 338 passing yards. It’s a nice win on the official quarterback bet, but the Dak Prescott Over was mentioned in the Herbert writeup and that Prescott only threw for 237 yards. There’s a win on tight end Albert Okwuegbunam at favorable odds later in these picks, so the loss on Prescott will be included in the “official” record. 

D’Andre Swift, RB, DET, DraftKings: Over 40.5 Rushing Yards

Monday Night Game

Damien Harris, RB, NE vs. Najee Harris, RB, PIT, DraftKings Head to Head Rushing Yards: Win

The Professor went with Damien Harris in the head-to-head matchup of the two backs, and Damien finished with 62 rushing yards to Najee’s 38.

Davante Adams, WR, GB, DraftKings: Over 85.5 Receiving Yards

Monday Night Game

Rondale Moore, WR, ARI, DraftKings, Over 40.5 Receiving Yards: Win

In the writeup on Arizona’s Rondale Moore, it was mentioned that he was a strong target for season-long fantasy, and after Moore’s seven receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown, he’s likely to be this week’s top waiver target in leagues he’s unclaimed, so if any readers picked him up ahead of time, that’s a bonus on top of the win on the over.

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, DEN, DraftKings, Over 1.5 Receptions: Win

The odds on this number were -165, but Okwuegbunam cleared the 1.5 receptions with four receptions on his four targets. It was a heavy favorite to win, but still nice to make some money on Okwuegbunam’s short-area receptions.

Razor’s Red Zone Grades

Survivor Pool Favorites: Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Denver

Grade: Pass pending Green Bay. Survivor pools ultimately come down to Pass/Fail grades, and Tampa Bay and Denver picked up wins to move on. The Packers play the Lions tonight.

Survivor Pool Contrarian Pick: Cincinnati

Grade: Fail. This pick was made based on the idea that quarterback Joe Burrow is better than Chicago’s current combination of quarterbacks, but it didn’t play out that way for the bulk of this contest. After cutting the score to 7-3 to open the second half, the Bengals turned the ball over on four consecutive possessions. Burrow threw interceptions on three consecutive passes after throwing zero on 199 pass attempts, which was the longest streak in the NFL. The Bengals rallied late to make it 20-17 but failed to finish the comeback or cover the +2.5.

Thursday Night MVP: Taylor Heinicke, QB, WSH; Washington DEF

The Professor put out two MVP options for last Thursday Night’s DFS slate. Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke was a solid option on FanDuel or DraftKings, but the game played out in a much different fashion than the Professor expected, and the advice on the Washington defense was a disaster. The Heinicke pick gets a B, the Washington defense pick an F.

Thursday Night Must-Have: Antonio Gibson, RB, WSH

The Gibson recommendation was based on getting the player with the most volume, and Gibson did tie with Giants running back Saquon Barkley with 15 touches. Gibson did most of his work on the ground, with 69 yards on 13 carries and 4 yards on 2 receptions, modest production for a “must-have” player. The pick gets a D.

Thursday Night Savings: Darius Slayton, WR, NYG; NYG Defense

The FanDuel pricing allowed contestants to build a roster without going too deep into the price pool, and Darius Slayton’s three receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown made him a decent pick, though it would have been better without his untimely drop. On DraftKings, the Giants defense recommendation was every bit as big a bust as the Washington defense. That experiment blew up in The Professor’s face: the Giants defense pick gets an F, the Slayton pick a C. Washington running back J.D. McKissic was the value player to have in this game.

Sunday Slate QBs: Justin Herbert, LAC (Star) and Teddy Bridgewater, DEN (Savings)

Justin Herbert went over the 300-yard passing mark in Sunday’s game against Dallas but ended up with one touchdown to two interceptions. It was a rough day in that regard, as the Chargers had two touchdown passes taken off the board for penalties that did not directly affect the play, and those drives ended in an interception and a field goal. It’s a loss The Professor can live with, given how close Herbert was to a very different final stat line, but still gets a D+ given the final result.

Teddy Bridgewater threw for 328 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions in Denver’s win over Jacksonville. Bridgewater didn’t add anything on the ground and didn’t post a week-winning performance, but provided solid value. The Bridgewater pick gets a B.

Sunday Slate RBs: Chris Carson, SEA (Star) and James White, NE / Tony Jones Jr., NO (Savings)

Chris Carson salvaged his day by scoring two rushing touchdowns, but only racked up 31 yards on 13 carries and was not featured in the passing game in a game where the Seattle offense did most of its damage through the air. The touchdowns save this grade, but it still gets a C.

The cost-savings advice at running back was a strong contrast in good and bad advice. James White racked up six receptions on six targets and added a touchdown on the ground for New England, which I’ll take all day at his FanDuel price of $4800. Tony Jones was part of a disastrous game for the New Orleans Saints, who were unable to get their running game going after running roughshod over the Green Bay Packers in Week 1. The White advice gets a B+, the Jones pick gets an F.

Sunday Slate WRs: DeAndre Hopkins, ARI (Star) and Ja’Marr Chase, CIN (Savings)

DeAndre Hopkins started on fire but gave way to rookie Rondale Moore as the game went on. Hopkins finished with 54 yards and a touchdown on his four receptions, but all four of those targets came on the first two drives. There was space for the rest of Kyler Murray’s targets, but the reason for Hopkins not getting more targets will be a point of inquiry during this week’s film study. The Hopkins advice gets a C.

Ja’Marr Chase didn’t get going until late, but Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow found him for a late touchdown. He wasn’t Rondale Moore, who was available around the same price and put up monster production, but Chase still posted 54 receptions and a touchdown on two receptions, an identical stat line to Hopkins minus the two catches. At $5500 on FanDuel, that’s worth a B-.

Sunday Slate TEs: George Kittle, SF (Star) and Jared Cook, LAC (Savings)

The tight end slate was rough. Philadelphia’s defensive line had looked good in their Week One win over Atlanta, but it was a surprise to see that San Francisco’s offense had struggled for so much of this week’s game and that Kittle failed to rack up significant production with four receptions on four targets for seventeen yards. For a star player recommendation, that gets an F.

Jared Cook’s day was immensely frustrating to watch. First, he wiped out a long touchdown pass to fellow tight end Donald Parham Jr. with a sloppy holding call, and later in the game, a Cook touchdown reception was called back on an illegal formation. This pick would have gotten a B if Cook’s touchdown had stood, but the results are the results, and Cook finished with a mere three receptions for 28 yards. That one gets a D.

Conclusion

This article reviewed The Professor’s advice on BeerLife Sports for Week 2. It was a solid week on the Prop Bet front and a down week in DFS, but The Professor is back at it and looking to rebound in Week 3. His game previews, cheat sheets, prop bet articles, and appearances on Razor’s RedZone are all available at BeerLife Sports.

About the author:

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.

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