The Professor’s NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Low-Cost DFS Targets

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The Professor's NFL Super Wild Card Weekend Low-Cost DFS Targets

The NFL regular season is in the books, the Giants fired head coach Joe Judge on Black Tuesday, and now it is on to the NFL’s Super Wild Card weekend, which will feature two games on Saturday, three games on Sunday, and for the first time, a Monday Night Football game in the NFL Playoffs. This article will cover The Professor’s low-cost DFS options for the upcoming slate of NFL action; the included prices are for the full Saturday-Monday slate, but these players should be relatively low-cost options in any contest. For breakdowns of the individual daily contests, check out The Professor’s weekly appearance on Razor’s Red Zone!

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr, LVR @ CIN, $6800 FanDuel, $5500 DraftKings

There are notable disparities in quarterback prices across FanDuel and DraftKings this weekend, but no matter which website you play on, Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is available at a value price point this week; of the twelve starting quarterbacks, Carr, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, Patriots quarterback Mac Jones, and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger are the four cheapest options. The weather forecast in Cincinnati indicates it will be cloudy on Saturday, but temperatures should be in the 40s, and the wind is not expected to be a significant factor, which sets the Raiders’ signal-caller up to play a big role in his NFL Playoff debut.

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF @ DAL, $6800 FanDuel, $5300 DraftKings

Jimmy Garoppolo’s role in the 49ers’ offense limits his upside relative to Derek Carr, but the offense around Garoppolo is better than the group in Las Vegas and less likely to get shut down this weekend, which arguably gives Garoppolo the higher floor. He has been on the hot seat since the 49ers traded up to the 3rd overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft, but Garoppolo has put together a solid season and is likely to top his recent streak of one-touchdown games if teammate Deebo Samuel doesn’t take too many red-zone pass attempts from him this week.

Matthew Stafford, ARI @ LAR, $7600 FanDuel, $6300 DraftKings

Patriots rookie Mac Jones will face frigid temperatures in Buffalo, which lends itself to a run-heavy Patriots gameplan, and Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a rough outing against the Chiefs less than a month ago, so we will go a bit further up the price charts for our third quarterback recommendation. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is a value on FanDuel, but pricier on DraftKings, so let’s go with Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, who continues to mix elite-level throws with backbreaking mistakes. Stafford has had his issues this season, but he has also topped 20 fantasy points in both games against Arizona. If Stafford does make mistakes, it will put the Rams in a position to throw more, which is a win-win for fantasy managers, if not for Rams fans.


Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE @ BUF, $5200 FanDuel, $4700 DraftKings

The weather forecast for the game in Buffalo is frigid, and as NFL fans saw earlier this season, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick has no qualms about a run-heavy, or even run-exclusive, attack. Rhamondre Stevenson had a quiet game to close out the season, but nobody is going to want to tackle the 6’0, 230-pound back in these conditions, particularly when Bills defenders will also have to deal with New England’s top back, Damien Harris. Stevenson drew 24 carries in the first game against Buffalo; even if he gets half of that total this week, he could provide solid value.

Cam Akers, ARI @ LAR, $5400 FanDuel, $4200 DraftKings

Cam Akers is a huge roll of the dice, as the second-year back only has eight touches this season, which all came in his Week 18 season debut. Akers is playing behind Sony Michel, who has enjoyed a resurgent season after the Patriots traded him to the Rams in the offseason, but there is no comparison between the Cam Akers who starred in the NFL Playoffs last season and Michel. Akers is a physical back who possesses outstanding contact balance, elite lateral quickness, breakaway speed, and next-level vision. If Akers gets hot, Michel could find himself spending a lot of time on the sidelines.

Devin Singletary, NE @ BUF, $6900 FanDuel, $5700 DraftKings

The value plays at running back dry up quickly this week, in large part because so many running backs are on track to return from injury, which has muddied the situations in Arizona, Dallas, Philadelphia, and Tampa Bay. Bills running back Devin Singletary only hit double-digit fantasy numbers twice until the final five games of the NFL season, but he closed out the NFL slate on a tear, with fantasy numbers of 11.9, 16.1, 16.3, 23, and 24.2 over those five games. The pair of 20+ point games came against the Falcons and Jets, but while the Patriots are a step up in competition, Singletary is set to play a significant role as these teams face off for the third time.


Wide Receivers

Gabriel Davis, NE @ BUF, $5200 FanDuel, $4600 DraftKings

It was overlooked because he had one of the most inefficient games of his career, but Gabriel Davis drew 14 targets in Buffalo’s regular-season finale to tie Stefon Diggs for the team lead. Davis was relegated to a minor role early during the NFL season, in part because veteran Emmanuel Sanders got off to a hot start, but Sanders has faded and Davis, who is a critical part of this organization’s future with two years left on his rookie deal, has seen his target share grow. The big-bodied receiver may not draw as many targets as last week, but he should do more with them, and with Patriots cornerback J.C. Jackson likely to shadow Diggs, it is essential for Buffalo that Davis shows up big.

Mecole Hardman, PIT @ KC, $5700 FanDuel, $4100 DraftKings

Mecole Hardman stepped up in a big way with top wide receiver Tyreek Hill hobbled for the final game of the NFL regular season, and unless Hill acquires a Wolverine-esque ability to heal this week, the Chiefs will rely on Hardman to provide the juice in this offense once again. There has to be some thought of only dressing Hill in a “break glass in case of emergency” type of role; the Chiefs likely need Hill back to his dynamic self if they are going to make a Super Bowl push, but given that they throttled the Steelers without tight end Travis Kelce, they can likely make do this week without Hill, which would mean an even larger role for Hardman.

Chase Claypool, PIT @ KC, $5900 FanDuel, $4800 DraftKings

Chase Claypool has endured a frustrating second NFL season, but the oversized receiver is a dynamic physical talent, and in a game where they have to take an aggressive approach, the Steelers are likely to give Claypool opportunities to make plays down the field and erase some of the negative moments from earlier in the season. Claypool’s inconsistency makes him a boom-or-bust proposition, but in a game where the Steelers will have to match points with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Claypool is worth a roll of the dice.


Tight Ends

Zach Ertz, ARI @ LAR, $5800 FanDuel, $4700 DraftKings

Zach Ertz does not have a touchdown reception in his last six games, which contributes to his relatively low price-point, but Ertz has also drawn at least seven targets in each of the last five games and has had double-digit targets in three of those contests. Arizona’s cast of complementary receivers has completely failed to step up in receiver DeAndre Hopkins’ absence, with reserve Antoine Wesley stepping up as Christian Kirk and A.J. Green wilted in the spotlight, but Ertz has taken advantage of the situation to become quarterback Kyler Murray’s top target, and he will work against the middle of a Rams defense that just brought safety Eric Weddle out of retirement because of an injury to Jordan Fuller. Weddle was a stud in his day, but while few defenders think the game as well as he does, jumping into an NFL Playoff game after two years off is a tall task.

Conclusion

This article covered The Professor’s low-cost DFS plays for the upcoming week. For more fantasy content from The Professor check out his weekly appearance on Razor’s RedZone and the rest of his content on BeerLife Sports!

About the author:

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.

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