The Professor’s NFL Conference Championship FanDuel Specials

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The Professor's NFL Conference Championship FanDuel Specials

NFL fans are two days away from the NFL’s Conference Championship games, and DraftKings and FanDuel have loaded up the offers to maximize the excitement for bettors. The Professors covered some DraftKings Specials in his NFL Conference Championship articles, and several straight player props in his Prop Bets article, but there’s plenty more to consider; this article will run through the remaining specials on FanDuel that stood out to The Professor as viable plays, with some DraftKings numbers used as reference points.

Either Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce Or Ja’Marr Chase To Have 125+ Yards Receiving (FanDuel, +150)

This one is easy; the Professor was a fan of the DraftKings prop for either Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce or Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase to top 125 receiving yards at +200 (33.3% break-even), so adding Chiefs receiver Tyreek Hill to the mix at +150 (40.0% break-even) makes the FanDuel offer quite appealing. To simplify this reasoning, let’s assume that Kelce and Chase both had a 16.65% chance to top 125 yards, which would indicate the DraftKings offer is a break-even proposition. That means that if both the DraftKings and FanDuel props are priced properly, then Hill is added in with the assumption that he adds a 6.7% probability of topping 125, which makes little sense relative to the numbers penciled in for Kelce and Chase. One could argue that both props are mispriced, but if a bettor likes the DraftKings prop on Kelce and Chase, the same bettor should love this FanDuel number.

Joe Burrow & Patrick Mahomes To Combine For 600+ Passing Yards (FanDuel, +150; DraftKings, +140)

Elijah Mitchell & Cam Akers To Combine for 150+ Yards Rushing (FanDuel, +150; DraftKings, +170)

The Professor laid out why he liked both of these bets in his NFL Conference Championship Previews article, but the price is everything in gambling, and FanDuel and DraftKings have put different numbers on these props. BeerLife bettors are savvy enough to know what that means; if you like these plays, go to FanDuel for the passing prop and DraftKings for the rushing prop.

Patrick Mahomes To Throw 3+ TDs & Travis Kelce To Have 75+ Yards Receiving (FanDuel, +400)

The Professor loves when FanDuel and DraftKings set up a special that allows an easy “sanity check”; in this case, we can see that the DraftKings over on Mahomes to throw more than 2.5 touchdowns is at -105 (it was at +110 when the Professor wrote his Prop Bets article, which makes this FanDuel play even more attractive) and that Kelce’s yardage over/under is set at 76.5 yards, with the over at -115 on DraftKings. DraftKings won’t let us parlay these picks, but we can multiply the chances of the -105 and -115 events (these are not independent events, but let’s be conservative and calculate it that way, knowing our number will come out a bit low) to see the chances of these events occurring simultaneously is roughly 27.4%, which indicates the +400 (20% break-even) on FanDuel is a heck of a value.

Any 4 of Travis Kelce, Deebo Samuel, Jerick McKinnon, George Kittle & Tyler Boyd to score 1+ TDs each (FanDuel, +600)

This offers another “sanity” check opportunity; we will simplify things by looking at the DraftKings TD Scorer prices on Travis Kelce (-130), Deebo Samuel (-110), Jerick McKinnon (+140), and George Kittle (+175). The odds of all four players scoring, assuming those are independent events and based on the break-even points, comes out at 4.49%, well below the +600 break-even of 14.3%. Adding Tyler Boyd to the mix (+260 as a TD scorer) helps to even this out, but based on the rough math that got us 4.49% vs. 14.3% without Boyd factored in, The Professor will pass on this bet given that several others appear more attractive.

Any 4 of Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, Odell Beckham, Byron Pringle & Mecole Hardman to score 1+ TDs each (FanDuel, +700)

Speaking of better values, FanDuel arguably gives bettors a more attractive group of players for this +700 play. Cooper Kupp (-150), Ja’Marr Chase (+100), Odell Beckham Jr. (+140), Byron Pringle (+190), and Mecole Hardman (+300) do bring slightly longer odds, particularly in the Pringle vs. Kittle and Hardman vs. Boyd comparisons, but The Professor’s model suggests that Chase and Beckham’s TD scorer odds should be shorter than Samuel and McKinnon’s, particularly in the Beckham vs. McKinnon comparison, and that Pringle’s odds should be in line with Kittle’s. Those edges aren’t enough to make this bet a great value, but for bettors looking to play one of these “Any 4” TD Scorer props, The Professor would recommend the Kupp-led group regardless of price.

Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase & Tyreek Hill to have 100+ receiving yards each (FanDuel, +900)

Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins & Odell Beckham to have 100+ receiving yards each (FanDuel, +2400)

The final plays The Professor will look at are for two trios of wide receivers to each top the 100-yard mark on Sunday. The first group of Cooper Kupp, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyreek Hill features legit superstars who have a history of showing up in the biggest moments; DraftKings has set their yardage over/unders at 101.5 (Kupp), 85.5 (Chase), and 78.5 (Hill). If we use rough numbers and assign Kupp a 50% chance of topping 100, Chase a 40% chance, and Hill a 35% chance, we get a 7% chance of all three players hitting the number; given that Chase and Hill both arguably have a higher chance than the odds assigned for this exercise, the break-even of 10% at +900 appears to be in the right ballpark.

Estimates get a bit more complicated when Tee Higgins and Odell Beckham Jr. are added to the equation, but given that Beckham’s best total this NFL season is 81 yards, there is an obvious reason that FanDuel priced this bet at +2400. Beckham could certainly break out this week, but given his track record since joining the Rams, The Professor would file this final bet under the “just for fun” heading.

Conclusion

This article previewed four prominent NFL matchups for the coming week and talked about how to bet them. For more content from The Professor, including the rest of his game previews and his fantasy content, check out The Professor on BeerLife Sports!

About the author:

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.