This article will highlight ten prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for NFL Week 9 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN: 268.5 Passing Yards and 2.5 Passing TDs
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN: 73.5 Receiving Yards and TD Scorer
Joe Burrow threw a brutal interception and Ja’Marr Chase dropped a routine touchdown in last week’s collapse against the Jets, but that has to be weighed against what this duo did against the Ravens two weeks ago. The pair was dialed in for that AFC North matchup (Chase had 8 receptions for 201 yards and one touchdown) and they should be locked in for another critical division game against a Cleveland defense that has picked on some bad offenses but failed to play to the same standard against quality opponents. Cleveland officially announced they are releasing receiver Odell Beckham Jr. on Friday, which removes a potential distraction, but I still like Burrow and Chase to lead the Bengals in a rebound game this week.
The model has Burrow at a mean projection of 293.1 passing yards and 2.1 passing touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on the passing yards over at -115 and one unit on the over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +160.
The model has Chase at a mean projection of 94.0 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on the receiving yards over at -115 and one unit on him as a TD scorer at -105.
Marquise Brown, WR, BAL: TD Scorer
Mark Andrews, TE, BAL: TD Scorer
The Ravens have had two weeks to stew in their blowout loss to the Bengals and should be ready to roll coming out of their bye. Head coach John Harbaugh has had one losing season since he took over the Ravens in 2008; one reason is that his teams rarely go on extended skids. Injuries forced Baltimore to evolve the offense this season; quarterback Lamar Jackson has elevated his game to meet those demands but his improvements in the passing game have made it more difficult to project whether the Ravens will emphasize the ground or air game in a given game, which is why these prop bets focus on touchdowns. However the Ravens get their yards, they are scoring points, and receiver Marquise Brown and tight end Mark Andrews have accounted for nine of Jackson’s ten touchdowns.
The model has Brown at a mean projection of 0.6 touchdowns and Andrews at 0.5 touchdowns; with both of them priced at +120 to score a touchdown, I only need one of them to score for this pairing to be profitable. I’ll put one unit on each.
Josh Allen, QB, BUF: 2.5 Passing TDs
Emmanuel Sanders, WR, BUF: TD Scorer
Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX: 1.5 Interceptions
Receiver Emmanuel Sanders was shut out for the Bills last week but it wasn’t for a lack of targets; he simply struggled to separate against Miami cornerback Byron Jones and was unable to convert his opportunities. That shouldn’t be a problem this week against a Jacksonville secondary that lacks top-end talent on the outside. Quarterback Josh Allen should have a field day against the Jaguars, which would give Sanders an excellent chance to get back on track.
I avoided passing and receiving yard props for Buffalo because quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville offense may set them up with some short fields. Running back James Robinson isn’t as good as Christian McCaffrey but it is remarkable how both the Jacksonville and Carolina offenses have unraveled when they don’t feature their top back; running backs typically have relatively low positional value but these are two cases where the offenses in question lose any semblance of attitude/confidence when they lose their top back. Lawrence has made far more mistakes when Robinson isn’t part of the offense, which makes his interceptions prop interesting.
The model has Allen at a mean projection of 2.8 passing touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on the over at +145.
The model has Sanders at a mean projection of 0.5 receiving touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on him as a TD scorer at +115.
The model has Lawrence at a mean projection of 1.2 interceptions; I’ll put one unit on the over at +175.
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, PIT: 1.5 Passing TDs
Pittsburgh might move on from veteran Ben Roethlisberger after this NFL season but the Steelers have steadied the ship for the time being. They have won three straight games to get back over .500 and their chances of getting to 5-3 are arguably improved with the news that Bears head coach Matt Nagy will return to the sidelines this week after missing Chicago’s last game with COVID. Bears quarterback Justin Fields used his legs more last week and was far more effective, so Pittsburgh may not get the short fields NFL fans would have expected two weeks ago, but the Steelers should move the ball well enough to put up points in this game.
The model has Roethlisberger at a mean projection of 1.8 passing touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on the over at -105.
This article examined several prop bets for the upcoming week of NFL Action. To get access to more of The Professor’s content, check out BeerLife Sports.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.
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