The Professor’s 2021 NFL Week 7 Prop Bets

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The Professor's 2021 NFL Week 7 Prop Bets

This article will highlight eight prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers for NFL Week 7 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.

Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR: 288.5 Passing Yds and 2.5 Passing TD

The forecast for Los Angeles is beautiful this weekend and Sean McVay is the type of coach who will want to let quarterback Matthew Stafford shine in his reunion with his longtime team, the Detroit Lions. There is a massive gap in talent between these teams; fans should look for Stafford to put up at least 300 passing yards and 3 passing TDs in this game. Stafford made an early exit against the Giants last week, but only after he’d put up huge numbers in their blowout, and this week presents a similar matchup.

The model has Stafford at a mean projection of 322.2 passing yards and 2.5 passing touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on the over 288.5 passing yards at -115 and one unit on the over 2.5 passing touchdowns at +105.

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, ATL: 35.5 Rushing Yards and TD Scorer

Cordarrelle Patterson is a featured part of an Atlanta offense that is building momentum as they enter this matchup with a jet-lagged Miami team. Patterson is splitting carries with Mike Davis, but Patterson is the lead back in the committee and coming off a game where he got fourteen carries; if he gets ten this week, he should top the 35-yard rushing mark. He has scored touchdowns in two of five games this season, which aligns perfectly with his TD scorer odds of +150 (40% break-even) but between the threat he presents as a receiver and a runner, I like Patterson’s odds of getting in the endzone. He has five touchdowns in the two games that he has scored this season, a reason to suspect his game-to-game odds should be higher than 40%.

The model has Patterson at a mean projection of 35.5 rushing yards and 0.9 combined touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on the over 35.5 rushing yards at -115 and one unit on the TD scorer at +150.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND: 64.5 Rushing Yards

There’s rain in the forecast for the NFL’s Sunday Night matchup between Indianapolis and San Francisco, which lends itself to a run-heavy approach, and guard Quenton Nelson is set to return to lead the Indianapolis offensive line. With left tackle, Eric Fisher rounding into form as he works back from last year’s Achilles injury, the blocking in front of Taylor should continue to improve over the next few weeks.

The Colts have given some carries to Marlon Mack in recent games, perhaps in an effort to showcase him on the trade market, but Taylor should have plenty of opportunities to top 64 rushing yards.

The model has Taylor at a mean projection of 78.1 rushing yards; I’ll put one unit on the over 81.5 rushing yards at -115.

A.J. Dillon, RB, GB: 9.5 Receiving Yards

Running back A.J. Dillon was not involved in the passing game in a run-heavy Green Bay offense last week, but the deficiencies in Washington’s back end make it likely that the Packers focus more on the passing game this week. Dillon could eclipse this number with one reception and there’s a solid chance he catches two or three balls in this matchup, which would make it easy to reach 10 yards. It’s set to be a beautiful day in Green Bay and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been in a rhythm since Week Two; look for both Dillon and Aaron Jones to be involved in the short passing game to get the Washington defensive line out of rhythm.

The model has Dillon at a mean projection of 16.3 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the over 9.5 receiving yards at -115.

Davante Adams, WR, GB: 95.5 Receiving Yards

A higher-profile Packers prop bet is on Davante Adams, who has his over-under receiving yards set at 95.5. It’s a high number, but Adams has posted an exceptionally high target share of 36% as the focal point of Green Bay’s passing attack and Washington has been unable to stop anyone in the NFL this season. The Football Team is vulnerable against the pass in general and does not have a cornerback capable of sticking with Adams.

The model has Adams at a mean projection of 98.4 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the over 95.5 receiving yards at -115.

AJ Brown Headshot

A.J. Brown, WR, TEN: TD Scorer

The Tennessee and Kansas City matchup is set to be a shootout, and with fellow receiver, Julio Jones potentially sidelined, A.J. Brown has an opportunity for a big day. Brown posted seven catches for 91 yards on nine targets last week, and while he didn’t get into the endzone, that’s likely to change if he continues to post that type of yardage production. It’s been a slow start for Brown, but he’s an exceptionally talented player who is finally healthy and set up for a big second half of the NFL season. Brown has one touchdown this season after posting nineteen in his first two NFL seasons; I like him to start trending in the right direction this week.

The model has Brown at a mean projection of 0.8 receiving touchdowns; I’ll put one unit on Brown as a TD scorer at +140.

Conclusion

This article examined several prop bets for the upcoming week of NFL Action. To get access to more of The Professor’s content, check out BeerLife Sports.

About the author:

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.

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