The Professor’s 2021 NFL Week 6 Prop Bets

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This article will highlight eight prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for NFL Week 6 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC: 310.5 Passing Yards

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are in a must-win situation heading on the road to face a bad Washington Football Team defense. Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke generates a handful of turnover-worthy plays each game, but he also isn’t shy about attacking down the field, which could allow the Football Team to post points against a Kansas City defense that might be even worse than their own. If it turns into a shootout, Mahomes could easily eclipse this total.

The model has Mahomes at a mean projection of 320.7 passing yards; I’ll put one unit on the over at -115.

Justin Herbert, QB, LAC: 2.5 Passing TDs

Justin Herbert is headed on the road to face a tough Baltimore Ravens defense, but given that Herbert shredded a Cleveland defense that is arguably as talented as Baltimore last week, it’s hard to get too concerned about the NFL MVP candidate’s matchups. It helps Herbert’s passing TD prop that running back Austin Ekeler is as big a threat as a receiver as he is carrying the ball, which increases the likelihood that Los Angeles touchdowns will come from Herbert.

The model has Herbert at a mean projection of 2.0 passing touchdowns in this game; I’ll put one unit on the over at +170.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND: 81.5 Rushing Yards

The Indianapolis Colts sit at 1-4, but after a competitive game against the Ravens last Monday Night, this team should have some optimism about their ability to chase down the Tennessee Titans and make the NFL playoffs. Indianapolis has to beat Houston this week to have a chance at reviving their season and star running back Jonathan Taylor should play a critical role in ensuring that the Colts avoid an upset this week.

The model has Taylor at a mean projection of 83.1 rushing yards; I’ll put one unit on the over at -115.

Devontae Booker, RB, NYG: 46.5 Rushing Yards

Devontae Booker will handle the lead rushing duties for the New York Giants with lead back Saquon Barkley sidelined, but Booker may split carries, which would make the under on his rushing yards particularly appealing. If Booker is the lead back, he would still need to overcome his injury-decimated offensive line to rush for 47 yards against a Rams defensive line that is heavy on run stuffers. Quarterback Daniel Jones will be ready this week, which helps Booker and the offense in general, but the Giants are likely to be chasing the score in this one, which would limit their team rushing attempts.

The model has Booker at a mean projection of 38.2 rushing yards; I’ll put one unit on the under at -120.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN: 74.5 Receiving Yards and 5.5 Receptions

Bengals rookie receiver Ja’Marr Chase has taken the league by storm; as anticipated as the matchup between his quarterback Joe Burrow and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers was last week, seeing Chase dominate on the same field as Green Bay receiver Davante Adams was a similar opportunity to see a rising star at a position on the same platform as one of the league’s elite players. Chase can attack at every level of the field, has a knack for getting open deep, and has an outstanding rapport with quarterback Joe Burrow. The Lions don’t have a cornerback who can cover him; there’s a bit of risk counting on Chase to put up another huge game after his monster numbers against Green Bay, but I like him to step up big in a pivotal game for the Bengals.

The model has Chase at a mean projection of 6.1 receptions and 90.9 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the receptions over at +100 and one unit on the receiving yards over at -115.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, IND: 60.5 Receiving Yards

Michael Pittman Jr. has left his relatively disappointing rookie season in the rearview mirror and emerged as quarterback Carson Wentz’s top target in Indianapolis. After a slow start on the NFL’s opening weekend, Pittman has posted games with 123, 68, 59, and 89 receiving yards. Wentz should look for Pittman often in this one against a Houston team that doesn’t have a defender who can match up to Pittman’s imposing size.

The model has Pittman at a mean projection of 73.3 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the over at -115.

Travis Kelce Headshot

Travis Kelce, TE, KC: 83.5 Receiving Yards

Kansas City is in a must-win situation that could turn into a shootout, as noted in the Patrick Mahomes write-up above. Receiver Josh Gordon is the new shiny toy for Kansas City, but it’s likely that Mahomes relies on his longtime targets in Kelce and receiver Tyreek Hill against a Washington defense that hasn’t been able to cover any receiver in any area of the field. The model’s projection is almost the same as the DraftKings number in this one, but I expect Kelce to land on the plus side of his mean projection this week.

The model has Kelce at a mean projection of 84 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the over at -115.

Conclusion

This article examined several prop bets for the upcoming week of NFL Action. To get access to more of The Professor’s content, check out BeerLife Sports.

About the author:

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.

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