The Professor’s 2021 NFL Week 3 Prop Bets

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The Professor's 2021 NFL Week 3- Prop Bets

This article will highlight eight prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.

Russell Wilson, QB, SEA: 283.5 Passing Yards

Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for 597 yards in two games or nearly 300 per contest. He is now facing a Minnesota defense that has significant issues at the slot and outside left corner positions with a deep cast of weapons at his disposal. The Minnesota defensive front, which features massive players such as Michael Pierce and Dalvin Tomlinson at defensive tackle, makes it difficult to run on them, and Seattle showed last week that they’re happy to air it out in that situation.

The model has Wilson at an average game of 296.4 passing yards; I’ll take the over at -115.

Kirk Cousins, QB, MIN: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

This prop bet piggybacks on the Wilson bet in a game with a total of 55, one of the higher numbers you’ll see on an NFL game. Cousins has racked up five touchdown passes in two games despite issues on the offensive line and will need to throw to keep up with the Seahawks and Russell Wilson in this game. Receivers Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen are a threat to take it to the house from any spot on the field and the Seahawks’ defense is far from an elite group.

The model has Cousins at an average game of 2.3 passing touchdowns; I’ll take the over at -115.

Nick Chubb, RB, CLE: 77.5 Rushing Yards

The Browns get receiver Odell Beckham Jr. back this week to replace Jarvis Landry, who suffered an injury last week, but they are still short of pass-catchers and quarterback Baker Mayfield is not playing at a particularly high level. Chicago’s defensive front presents a difficult matchup and Chubb is not going to sustain his current average of 6.8 yards per carry, but the Browns should find a way to win this game and Chubb is the heartbeat of the offense. He’s liable to rip off an explosive gain that would cover more than half of this total at any point in the game and the model has Chubb at an average game of 87.3 rushing yards.

I’ll take the over at -115.

Devin Singletary, RB, BUF: 14.5 Receiving Yards

The thought process on Devin Singletary’s receiving prop is that Washington’s defensive line is likely to get some quick pressures on Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen, which will cause him to check the ball down more frequently than usual. Singletary is Buffalo’s top receiving back and the model has him at an average game of 2.5 receptions for 15.8 receiving yards.

I think he leans to the plus side of the average in this one and will take the over at -120.

Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, JAX: 51.5 Receiving Yards

Laviska Shenault played a significant role in Jacksonville’s passing game plan against Denver, but wasn’t on the same page with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and somehow ended up with two receptions on seven targets for negative three yards. Lawrence is adjusting to the NFL and this Jaguars offense is a trainwreck; the total on Lawrence’s interceptions is priced at -230 for over 0.5, so it needs to happen 69.7% of the time to break even, but that still might offer some value based on Jacksonville’s first two games.

Shenault is projected for 41.6 receiving yards by the model, which would be a marked improvement from last week. I’ll take the under at -115.

Allen Lazard, WR, GB: 2.5 Receptions

Allen Lazard showed significant promise early in 2020 before an injury and continued to contribute once he worked his way back, but he has been an afterthought in the Packers’ offense with two receptions on four targets for 16 yards. Green Bay is trying to get the ball to Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Randall Cobb ahead of Lazard in the passing game, which doesn’t bode well for his production.

The model has Lazard projected for an average game of 1.9 receptions; I’ll take the under on 2.5 at -110.

Mark Andrews, TE, BAL: 49.5 Receiving Yards

Ravens tight end Mark Andrews has yet to lead Baltimore in receiving during a game this year and Detroit linebacker Jamie Collins, who has the physical tools to match up with tight ends, is away from the team and expected to be traded. With Collins out of the picture, the Detroit defense is largely bereft of talent behind the defensive line and is likely to allow notable yardage and score totals to the Ravens.

The model has Andrews projected for an average game of 61.4 yards; I’ll take the over on 49.5 yards at -115.

Teaser: Justin Herbert, QB, LAC: 1.5 Passing Touchdowns and Darius Slayton, WR, NYG: 2.5 Receptions

These were not actually placed as a teaser, but because the over on Herbert’s touchdowns and Slayton’s receptions are both at -180, it seemed fair to pair them together for my “Week in Review” grading on Monday. Herbert has struggled with stalled drives and turnovers in the red zone, but has also showcased extraordinary talent through two weeks and seems on the verge of a breakout. Slayton had a rough drop for a potential long touchdown last week, but quarterback Daniel Jones seems to have a comfort level with him and is spreading the ball around.

The model has Herbert at an average game of 1.9 passing touchdowns and Slayton at an average game of 3.4 receptions, so I’ll take the over on both.

Conclusion

This article examined several prop bets for the upcoming week. To get full access to the output of The Professor’s machine learning model, check out this week’s BeerLife Sports article featuring the Professor’s Fantasy Value Predictions, where you can also see his highlighted bets for other positions.

About the author:

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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.

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