This article will highlight eight prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for NFL Week 15 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB: 2.5 Passing TDs
The NFL’s recent COVID outbreak has narrowed the prop bet options for Week 15 and could wipe others off the board, but Rodgers is still in the 90-day window of no testing after his stay on the COVID list and will be available Sunday despite his bothersome toe.
Other quarterbacks have had their moments, but after a mulligan in Week One, Rodgers has been the best quarterback in the NFL this season. Tom Brady fans have a valid argument, but while Brady is ruthlessly efficient in the context of his game, he doesn’t have the same skillset as Rodgers, and the style points should count in a race as tight as this one. With Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters on IR, Baltimore lacks the cornerback talent to match Packers receiver Davante Adams without doubling him, and if that happens, Rodgers will make them pay elsewhere. Expect #12 to continue building his case as the NFL MVP this week.
The model has Rodgers at a mean projection of 2.2 passing TDs; I’ll take the over at +160.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.