This article will highlight nine prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for NFL Week 13 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN: 248.5 Passing Yards
Keenan Allen, WR, LAC: 79.5 Receiving Yards
Joe Burrow threw for only 190 yards in Cincinnati’s blowout of the Steelers, but the second-year quarterback was 20 of 24 for 7.9 yards per attempt before he called it a day at the end of the third quarter. It was the second straight week that game circumstances kept Burrow’s passing totals low, but Justin Herbert and the Chargers will look to create a different narrative this week. The Chargers struggled to score against Denver last week because of Herbert’s turnovers, but he threw for over three hundred yards in the loss.
Herbert’s top receiver, Keenan Allen, has topped 80 receiving yards in each of his last four games and six of 11 this season. Allen will see matchups against Mike Hilton, who mans the slot position and is arguably Cincinnati’s best cornerback, but with the way Mike Williams has fallen off after a phenomenal start to the season, Allen should get plenty of work regardless of who covers him.
The total on this game has risen since opening with a look-ahead number of 48. Bengals running back Joe Mixon should also have a productive day, but The Professor anticipates that both quarterbacks will need to air it out as the 2020 NFL Draft classmates face off for the first time. Burrow’s passing yards total is down as a result of his latest performances and strikes The Professor as a good value. Herbert’s total is higher, but we can get at that by betting Allen’s receiving yards.
The model has Burrow at a mean projection of 283.0 passing yards; I’ll take the over 248.5 at -115.
The model has Allen at a mean projection of 83.5 receiving yards; I’ll take the over 79.5 at -115.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.
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