This article highlights nine prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for NFL Week 11 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN @ LVR, 267.5 Passing Yards
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN @ LVR, 74.5 Receiving Yards, TD Scorer
The Joe Burrow-Ja’Marr Chase pairing was a dud in The Professor’s NFL Prop Bet column two weeks ago when the duo failed to consistently connect in a blowout loss to Cleveland, but it wasn’t for a lack of targets in Chase’s direction. After a dominant start to his rookie season, Chase’s drop issues have resurfaced in recent games, and Burrow has forced the ball in Chase’s direction at times, such as on the ball that Browns cornerback Denzel Ward stepped in front of for a 100-yard interception return to cap Cincinnati’s first drive against Cleveland.
Chase dropped a touchdown two games ago against the Jets before failing to haul in several deep opportunities against the Browns, but I’ll bet on Chase to come out of the bye week refocused and ready to reignite what had been an electric rookie season. The Raiders’ secondary was torched a week ago in a get-right game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs; Burrow and his receiving group have more than enough talent to do the same.
The model has Burrow at a mean projection of 293.4 passing yards; I’ll take the over 267.5 at -115.
The model has Chase at a mean projection of 83.3 receiving yards and 0.7 receiving TDs; I’ll take the over 74.5 at -115 and Chase as a TD Scorer at +105.
Carson Wentz, QB, IND @ BUF, 1.5 Passing TDs
Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND @ BUF, 74.5 Rushing Yards
Carson Wentz’s touchdown prop is an interesting one, as the Colts quarterback has topped 1.5 passing TDs in seven of ten games this season but has posted zero in two games, including last week’s game against the Jaguars.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.