This article will highlight eight prop bets on quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends for NFL Week 10 that appear favorable based on the output of the Professor’s predictive model. The numbers and prices available are from DraftKings.
P.S. GREEN BELOW MEANS BET IT
Russell Wilson, QB, SEA: 244.5 Passing Yards
D.K. Metcalf, WR, SEA: 69.5 Receiving Yards
A.J. Dillon, RB, GB: 8.5 Receiving Yards
There are limited plays available for the matchup between Green Bay and Seattle as NFL fans await confirmation that quarterback Aaron Rodgers will be back in action; these bets are better if Rodgers is under center for the Packers but would be reasonable plays even if Jordan Love is forced to play again.
Russell Wilson has said that his hand feels great ahead of his return to action; he will open against a Green Bay defense that has played well over the past month, but few defenses have stopped Wilson and his receiver tandem of D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett when they are in rhythm. Wilson’s price on 1.5 touchdowns is unappealing and the TD scorer props are not available for this game but the overs on passing and receiving yards for Wilson and Metcalf are solid; the Seahawks might be chasing points if Rodgers plays, which would boost the odds on these bets, but Wilson will target Metcalf regularly regardless of who lines up at quarterback for Green Bay.
On the Packers side, the plays are limited to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon’s yardage totals; the rushing yards are set a bit high, so I will look to Dillon’s modest receiving yards total of 8.5. Love hit Dillon in the short game last week, so he could go over this by catching one pass with either quarterback.
The model has Wilson at a mean projection of 262.6 passing yards; I’ll put one unit on the passing yards over at -115.
The model has Metcalf at a mean projection of 84.4 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the receiving yards over at -115.
The model has Dillon at a mean projection of 13.8 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the receiving yards over at -115.
Justin Herbert, QB, LAC: 10.5 Rushing Yards and 2.5 Passing TDs
Keenan Allen, WR, LAC: 76.5 Receiving Yards
Justin Herbert led the NFL in passing yards last weekend, completing 84.2% of his passes for 356 yards in the win over the Eagles. There have been some down weeks but Herbert has generally played at a high level this season and has a solid matchup against a Vikings defense that traveled to Baltimore last weekend and has to fly to Los Angeles this weekend. Minnesota’s season is also on a downward spiral; it all sets up for Herbert to have a productive day and there is an attractive price on the over 2.5 touchdown passes.
Keenan Allen had slipped in the Los Angeles target share as fellow receiver Mike Williams dominated the early portion of the NFL season, but the knee injury Williams suffered several weeks ago has slowed him, which has caused Allen to emerge as the lead dog again over the past two games. He should have plenty of opportunities this week against a Vikings defense that is strong in the front but lacking in edge rushers and cornerbacks.
The model has Herbert at a mean projection of 13.5 rushing yards and 2.2 passing TDs; I’ll put one unit on the over 10.5 rushing yards at -115 and one unit on the over 2.5 passing TDs at +170.
The model has Allen at a mean projection of 89 receiving yards; I’ll put one unit on the over 76.5 receiving yards at -115.
D’Andre Swift, RB, DET: 43.5 Rushing Yards
Detroit has rarely been in a position to use a run-heavy attack and running back D’Andre Swift has posted 3.2 yards per carry behind a below-average offensive line during this NFL season. Backfield mate Jamaal Williams was unavailable in Detroit’s last game but Swift only got 12 carries as the coaching staff gave five to backups Godwin Igwebuike and Jermar Jefferson. Pittsburgh is allowing 4.4 yards per carry; that number should improve after this week’s game. Swift has topped 43.5 rushing yards in three of eight games this season but is more likely to post his production as a receiver with his team behind in yet another game.
The model has Swift at a mean projection of 37.8 rushing yards; I’ll put one unit on the under 43.5 rushing yards at -115.
Cordarrelle Patterson, RB/WR, ATL: TD Scorer
The Dallas Cowboys will look to get back on track on both sides of the ball this weekend, but while the Cowboys have flashed top-end production on defense at times, the Denver Broncos scored plenty of points on them last week.
Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is doing a phenomenal job of maximizing the versatile talent on his squad to set quarterback Matt Ryan up with advantageous situations. Outside of a loss to Carolina in which late unforced offensive errors stopped the Falcons from putting up points, Atlanta has scored at least 27 points in their past five games. Whether or not the game is competitive, Atlanta should have success on offense this week; running back / receiver Cordarrelle Patterson is a threat to score as a runner or receiver and has a good chance to get in the endzone again this week.
The model has Patterson at a mean projection of 0.3 rushing TDs and 0.5 receiving TDs; I’ll put one unit on him as a TD scorer at +115.
This article examined several prop bets for the upcoming week of NFL Action. To get access to more of The Professor’s content, check out BeerLife Sports.
Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.