DraftKings and FanDuel have buffed up their available bets for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, and The Professor is sorting through all the offers to determine which bets offer value, and which ones are marketing that is likely to benefit the books. The Professor will highlight nine of these bets for this article; for more action, check out The Professor’s Divisional Round Game Previews, which highlights his favorite Divisional Special for each game. This article will break the Divisional Specials into three categories: Legit Edges, Solid Values, and Just for Fun; available bets are from DraftKings and FanDuel.
Legit Edges
Aaron Jones & Elijah Mitchell to combine for 2+ Rushing TDs (+250 DraftKings)
Cooper Kupp or Mike Evans to have 125+ Receiving Yards (+130 DraftKings, +125 FanDuel)
Ja’Marr Chase & AJ Brown to combine for 3+ TD (+750 DraftKings)
+250 gives bettors a break-even rate of 28.57%, which makes the question of Aaron Jones and Elijah Mitchell whether the pair will hit this mark 30% of the time. The Professor’s model has Mitchell at a mean projection of 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game and Jones at 0.4; while this combined total of one may not appear attractive on the surface, both backs have the potential to hit this on their own, Mitchell is the bell-cow back for the 49ers despite Deebo Samuel’s talents, and The Professor has a good feeling about Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense having success this week, which has nothing to do with analytics or anything concrete but leads him to like the odds of Jones getting in the endzone; hopefully, that’s on a run rather than a pass.
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Steven Clinton, better known as "The Professor", is a former D-1 Quality Control Assistant (Northwestern, Toledo) who holds a B.A. in Economics and M.S. in Predictive Analytics from Northwestern University. He maintains an end-to-end NFL game projection model and is a film junkie who breaks down the tape of every NFL game.
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