The Points Junkie: Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 8)

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The Points Junkie- Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 8)

For me, the last couple of weeks have felt like I’ve been living the plot of the 1993 comedy hit, Groundhog Day. The bad beats have been repetitive, and each week feels just like the last as I continue to not break .500.

That is going to change this week. And that isn’t because I LOVE the board, it’s because the law of averages is on my side. Plus, I have a new ace up my sleeve in the form of the Trash Panda Special. The first week was so successful, EVERY pick this week comes from a non-Power 5 conference. Yes, you heard me right! A whole week of filthy selections that are sure to have you feeling like a bandit-masked, trash panda that just stumbled upon a landfill; however, before we get to that, let’s look back at last week.

Cincinnati took their sweet time but got in the end zone on their opening possession. UCF struggled on offense, punted, and I think it will be tough for them to get to 17. The Bearcats got another touchdown, and it was 14-0 after the first 15 minutes. Not exactly lighting the world on fire, but hey, at least I don’t need 70. Hoping for a 56-7 final at this point. Cinci offense blew multiple opportunities in the second quarter to move the ball down the field. Dropped passes, penalties, etc… 28-0 with 5 left in the second quarter. Bearcats doing their part but gonna need UCF to cross the 50 at some point, and they did!! 35-7 at halftime, this game is gonna be a SWEAT though. Late in the third. The Knights were driving and throwing a pick! Not to fear though as Cobe Bryant returned it for a 74-yard pick-six to make it 42-7. Impressively, UCF marched straight down the field and this over was three points away from hitting, with a little more than 1 minute left in the third. It hit with 10:44 left on the clock after UCF muffed a punt inside their 10-yard line. CHAA CHING, BABY!!

The Horns marched straight down the field and Bijan punched it in. Okie state dropped a TD on third and goal, settled for 3. Texas looked like they were gonna answer quickly after a 58-yard pass set them up at the 11, but no dice. It was 10-3 after 1 in Austin. Bijan scored once again, this time a receiving touchdown. He should be in New York for the Heisman in December. Can’t say the same about Cowboy QB Sanders. The dude couldn’t hit a wide-open receiver on the beach if he was standing knee-deep in the ocean. After throwing a pick, his defense bailed him out with an 85-yard pick 6 to make it 17-10, Horns with 5, and change to play in the first half. 17-13 at intermission and the over was on pace, but barely. A 38-yard TD run by Bijan opened the scoring after the break. The Cowboys FINALLY got in the end zone after their 3 previous drives inside the Texas 25 ended in a field goal; however, the 2-point try failed. 24-22 with 10 minutes to play. Later, OSU failed in the red zone again but got a field goal to make it 25-24. The over isn’t going to hit because of the ineptness of the Cowboy offense. How is this team undefeated, I asked myself with 5 minutes still on the clock? Texas went 4 and out, and the Cowboys scored on a miraculous play, just kidding Texas let them score so they could get the ball back, but nonetheless, they got into the end zone. The over needed 5, and there was 2:12 on the clock; however, 2 plays later, Casey Thompson threw a pick. The Horns lost 32-24, yet another heartbreaker for the Junkie. 

I flipped the Trash Panda Special (or TPS for short) on for the first time, and it was already 7-7. We weren’t even halfway through the first, and Western Michigan was driving AGAIN. That drive stalled inside the 20 though, and they kicked a field goal to push the total to 17. At that point, I decided I was bad luck, flipped back to the Georgia game, and left the TPS to its own devices. Everyone knows they tend to thrive when no one is watching. This strategy paid off in spades. I flipped back 20 minutes later, and it was 20-14, 15 minutes after that, it was 23-17 at the break. No clue what sort of awesomeness happened, but when I flipped back, there was 4:20 left in the 3rd and the TPS had already hit!! WMU scored 27 unanswered to go up 50-17, KA CHOW!! I didn’t flip back after that, but just in case you were wondering, the final was 64-31.  

Mississippi State got a couple of first downs, but the Tide defense picked off Will Rogers once he crossed the 50. 3 plays later, the Million Dollar Band was playing the fight song after Bryce Young hit John Metchie for a 46-yard touchdown. State got 3 and then they actually stopped Alabama! After the punt though, the Tide picked one off and took it to the house to make it 14-3. Only one more touchdown would be put on the board though and at half Bama was up 21-6. Gonna need trash touchdowns from State or else this one is toast. Bama 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play out of the locker room and I’m thinking there is a chance. I didn’t watch much more of this one as Ole Miss was on simultaneously and the game wasn’t that interesting to begin with. State never got into the end zone on the night and a final score of 49-9 triggered the first push of the year for the Points Junkie.

Ole Miss drove down the field, but penalties killed their opening drive; however, the Vols muffed the punt, and the Rebs recovered at the 11. Snoop Connor ran it in a couple of plays later, but 5 whole minutes have already ticked off the clock. NOT IDEAL when you need over 80 points. This game couldn’t have started any worse as it was 7-2 with 4:35 left in the first. Ole Miss is just a step off so far tonight, and it was 10-9 after 1. Corral finally connected with Dannis Jackson for a 33-yard touchdown making it 17-9 Rebels. It was 24-12 at intermission. Ole Miss ran 61 plays in the first half! This game never got going in the second half. The Ole Miss defense overperformed, and it didn’t help that their receivers were banged up, which forced Corral to run the ball 30 times!! The Rebels won 31-26, and the over fell almost 30 points short.

Week 7 Record: 2-2-1; Season Record: 17-18-1

The time has come to look at my favorite overs for Week 8 of the College Football season. A glorious week that consists of nothing but Trash Panda Specials (games consisting of non-power 5 schools).

Louisiana @ Arkansas State (O/U 70.5)

The last 3 games for Arkansas State have seen the total combine for at least 72.5 points. The Red Wolves are no stranger to my picks as their defense is ATROCIOUS as they give up 46 points and 584 yards per game. The Ragin Cajuns will have no problem moving the ball up and down the field. The only thing that will keep this over from popping is a blowout, but I have a little bit of confidence in Arky State as they do average 30 points per contest. Louisiana wins 52-27.

PICK: OVER

Kent State @ Ohio (O/U 67.5) 

This over has moved up 5 points since it opened, so you know what that means!! It’s automatic hammer time, BABY!! Who cares about the stats? Not me, not even gonna look at them. All I need to know is that pretty much everyone thinks Vegas screwed up posting such a low number. They can’t set it high enough now. Kent State wins 41-37.

PICK: OVER

Western Kentucky @ FIU (O/U 76.5)

On average, games that include Western Kentucky combine for a total of 74.5 points. Improving the odds of a repeat, the FIU defense comes in giving up 37 points and 480 yards per game. On the flip side, the Hilltoppers score 41 a game and give up 35. All the ingredients for a successful over are present, and I’m not sure there is much more to say. Western Kentucky wins a laugher 55-31.

PICK: OVER

UTSA @ LA Tech (O/U 59.5) 

This might be my worst pick of the week; however, something in my gut tells me to include it. LA Tech lost 19-3 last week at UTEP, which is what gives me a lot of doubt they can come out and do anything productive against an undefeated UTSA squad. The Roadrunners come in on a HEATER and are putting up an average of 38 points on the board. UTSA should run all over the Bulldogs on their own field, and they win going away, 47-20.

PICK: OVER

Nevada @ Fresno State (O/U 65) 

This over opened a 60.5 and has been bet up 4.5 points which triggers another automatic hammer from the Points Junkie. Both teams come in averaging over 35 points per game, and over 6 yards per play. There won’t be much either defense can do, in this one. I’m looking at an October 2nd game at Boise that Nevada won 41-31, and I think they do the same thing at Fresno. Wolf Pack wins 41-34.

PICK: OVER

About the author:

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Hi! My name is Pierce, and I’m a reformed degenerate gambler.

I say reformed because an average weekend used to involve me betting on every football game on the board. College, NFL, didn’t matter. Back then, it was all about the rush of every touchdown in every game mattering for me one way or another. I was a full-blown junkie. My goal wasn’t to make money but to win just enough to be able to bet the next week. I quickly learned, well... after a couple of years, that money plus time plus money equals heartache, not happiness.

Don’t mistake me for a handicapper, but I have developed my own system for betting on any sport. POINTS, BABY!! No more spreads, just OVERS, which dilutes the game to only its very best parts. Every touchdown matters for me again, each one building toward the ultimate dream of a winning bet. Whether offensive, defensive, or special teams, I love touchdowns of all kinds. Who’s winning? Who cares? Just tell me the score is high and I’m good.

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