The Points Junkie: Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 7)

106
The Points Junkie- Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 7)

I watched Captain Phillips, y’all. While I knew it probably ended badly for the pirates, what surprised me most was how unprepared they were for the task at hand. 

Two weeks ago, I said, “I’m the Captain now.” I was white-hot and finding my groove after going 11-4 over my 3 previous weeks. I had a clear plan for domination, but after the last 2 weeks, I feel more like the pirate who showed up barefoot than the guy who was briefly Captain. While the last one wasn’t exactly terrible (2-3), it was still heartbreakingly painful. I simply couldn’t catch a break, and when all was said and done, I had multiple shards of glass lodged in my foot. Two overs were missed by a total of 4 points! I was oh so close to my third 4-1 week, but instead, my record fell under .500 for the year (15-16).

Before we move ahead with my freshest selections, let’s take a quick look back. 

Coastal struck quick in Jonesboro with a 99-yard TD pass; however, minutes later they had to settle for a field goal after getting stuffed on third and goal from the 1. It was only 10-0 after the first quarter and I knew this was just another dud for the Junkie. The Chants got in the end zone two more times to make it 24-0 at the half, and I’m not gonna lie, I was down and dejected. THEN, something amazing happened, Arkansas State woke up!! 28 points were put on the board in the first 8 minutes of the second half. And just like that, I was back BABY!! With 12 minutes to play, the Red Wolves scored, but wanting to make it a two-score game, they went for 2. The conversion failed, so now it was 38-20, which meant the over needed 15 to hit instead of 14. I immediately thought, “If this misses by a point, I swear to Jeebus!!” A 67-yard TD run by the Coastal made it, 52-20 with almost 8 minutes left on the clock. The over was 72.5, so I NEEDED 1 more point, ANY kind of point!! Never happened though. This one STUNG. 

The Terps marched down the field on an impressive opening drive against Ohio State. Little Tua missed a wide-open receiver in the end zone, but he got 3 points at least. The Buckeyes then took over six minutes as they methodically drove down the field for a touchdown. At this pace, the over wasn’t looking great; however, there are still 4 minutes left in the first. The pace picked up from there though. Halfway through the second, there were 31 on the board, baby!! Ohio State led 35-10 at halftime and this over is on the fast track to HITSVILLE. I said the Bucks would be over 45 by the end of the third, and they did it halfway through the third quarter when it was 49-10. The over hit with 47 seconds left in the THIRD QUARTER. Style points for Day, indeed The Bucks blew out the Terps, 66-17. 

The Red River Rivalry was BANANAS. Hell, the Horns scored on their first offensive play, a 75-yard pass that was thrown BEHIND the line of scrimmage. Oklahoma then went 3 and out, Texas blocked the punt and recovered at the Sooner 2-yard line. After Bijan ran it in, it was 14-0 Texas after just 1:53 seconds had ticked off the game clock. And the pace never let up from there! It was 28-7 with 1 minute left in the first quarter. To this point, Spencer Rattler has just looked so indecisive out there. On a 4th and 1, the Sooners turned to their backup QB Caleb Williams, and he broke off a 66-yard run. It’s time for Lincoln Riley to wake up and smell the coffee. Rattler should be on the bench for good. And right after I write that, he fumbles a snap and gives the ball back to the Horns who lead 28-17. This game was the ridiculous shootout I expected as it was 38-20 at intermission. The over hit with 2:45 left in the third on a 46-yard FG by Cameron Dicker the Longhorn kicker. Rattler was finally YANKED, and Williams led an amazing comeback. This game was AWESOME and with 1:23 left, it was tied at 48. Boomer won 55-48 on basically a buzzer-beating 33-yard TD run (left 3 seconds on the clock). Wow! START THE SPENCER RATTLER TRANSFER COUNTDOWN CLOCK!!

I gotta stop picking TRASH games like Old Dominion and Marshall. It was 3-0 after 15 minutes, and 10-6 at halftime. Miserable pick. Just MISERABLE. The over needed 51 in the second half. GROSS. I don’t even want to talk about it, BUT I AM DONE picking these no-name teams! Old Dominion? They should go back to doing what they do best, MOVING FREIGHT.

A 20-point first quarter had me on pace in the UVA/Louisville game; however, after only 3 points in the second, this over was more well done than a steak resting in an out-of-control flame. Too many field goal attempts, not enough end zone celebration was the theme of the first half in Kentucky. This thing got going in the second half, though as the teams combined for 44 points! They must have got some good snacks or something. The game went down to the very last play, which saw Louisville miss a game-winning field goal as time expired. Final score 34-33, Cavaliers. The over to missed by a measly 3 points.

Without further ado, here are my favorite overs for Week 7 of the College Football season. 

UCF @ Cincinnati (O/U 57.5)

The UCF offense hasn’t been the same without Dillon Gabriel and asking them to score 20 against an incredibly talented Bearcat defense might be asking too much; however, I’m boarding the Gus Bus with thoughts of trick plays dancing in my head. Even though Cincinnati is climbing in the rankings (#3 in AP/#4 in Coaches), they (like Ohio State last week) need to win with style the rest of the way to improve their 45% chance (according to ESPN FPI) to make the playoff. There is LITERALLY no room for error as 1 loss will undoubtedly knock them out of the playoff picture entirely. Desmond Ritter has been fantastic thus far for the Bearcats scoring touchdowns on the ground and through the air. I expect Cincinnati to keep the focus and win going away, 49-17. 

PICK: OVER

Oklahoma State @Texas (O/U 60)

No doubt, I am one to ride a hot hand, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do with Texas. They may have blown it last week, but the offense did their part. Since losing at Arkansas, the Longhorn offense has been basically unstoppable (54 points per game). Oklahoma State comes in undefeated and boasts a stout defense (18.6 ppg); however, they have yet to face an offense that averages over 7 yards per play as Texas does. I just have a hard time believing that OSU can stop Bijan and Casey Thompson at the same time. To me, this is the week the Cowboys come crashing back down to earth. The Longhorns win, 37-27.

PICK: OVER

Kent State @ Western Michigan (O/U 66)

Try as I might, I can’t quit picking at least one TRASH game. They’re like a pesky raccoon that keeps evading my trap and flipping over my trash can. So, I’m gonna lean into it, and from henceforth, these picks shall be known as a Trash Panda Special. This bad boy opened at 62 and is well on its way to becoming an automatic hammer by kickoff. Kent State comes in averaging over 460 yards per game on offense while giving up nearly 450 on defense. While the Broncos from Western Michigan don’t have stats that jump off the page, they’re scoring 25 a game and giving up the exact same. The Broncs are balanced, but I’ve got the Golden Flashes pulling the inaugural Trash Panda Special, 41-34.

PICK: OVER

Alabama @ Mississippi State (O/U 58)

Alabama is coming off a loss, and that is bad news for whoever their next opponent may be. In this case, Mississippi State is the lucky team that gets the displeasure of hosting this angry Crimson Tide squad. Bryce Young and the offense will find the end zone early and often against a very suspect Bulldog defense. Only question here will be can Mississippi State break into double digits? I say yes, but barely. The Tide rolls through Starkville, 51-13.

PICK: OVER

Ole Miss @ Tennessee (O/U 82.5)

I put this game in my picks on Thursday of last week without even knowing the number was going to be. The total opened at 77 and has been bet up a whopping 5.5 points! Do you know what that means?! This is another AUTOMATIC HAMMER from the Points Junkie. Considering both teams LOVE to go fast, LOTS of plays will be run, which should wear down both defenses quickly. The Vols are a different team since Hendon Hooker took over at QB and are averaging 53.5 points per game across their last two contests. I don’t want to regurgitate all the stats and information I’ve written about these teams in the past, but rest assured the numbers are with me here. Corral and Hooker will light up the scoreboard deep into the night on Rocky Top. This must be what MC Hammer felt like when he was on top of his game. IT’S HAMMER TIME, BABY!! 

PICK: OVER

About the author:

+ posts

Hi! My name is Pierce, and I’m a reformed degenerate gambler.

I say reformed because an average weekend used to involve me betting on every football game on the board. College, NFL, didn’t matter. Back then, it was all about the rush of every touchdown in every game mattering for me one way or another. I was a full-blown junkie. My goal wasn’t to make money but to win just enough to be able to bet the next week. I quickly learned, well... after a couple of years, that money plus time plus money equals heartache, not happiness.

Don’t mistake me for a handicapper, but I have developed my own system for betting on any sport. POINTS, BABY!! No more spreads, just OVERS, which dilutes the game to only its very best parts. Every touchdown matters for me again, each one building toward the ultimate dream of a winning bet. Whether offensive, defensive, or special teams, I love touchdowns of all kinds. Who’s winning? Who cares? Just tell me the score is high and I’m good.

Leave a Reply