The Points Junkie: Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 4)

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The Points Junkie- Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 4)

Back-to-back 4-1 weeks has me feeling like the pirate in Captain Phillips. I’M THE CAPTAIN NOW!  

For the record, I’ve never actually seen the movie, but I remember the line from the trailer because it’s powerful. I assume the pirates lose in the end though or else it wouldn’t be a movie, for now, I feel like he probably did at that moment. Proud of myself for having the power to commandeer such a massive ship. And I don’t want to lose this feeling, but I’m also smart enough to know it’s not gonna last forever.

My hot streak also has me back on track to reach my stated goal of winning at least 65% of my picks, which is nice after a horrendous start. Last week, I said I LOVED THE BOARD; however, I don’t share that same enthusiasm this weekend. That doesn’t mean I am without picks though. Before we dive into that, let’s recap the glory of last week. 

Louisville went four and out on their opening drive and UCF took over on the Cards 40-yard line. 2 plays later, the band was playing the fight song. Yes, sir, this game had it all!! After the second double pass of the game (receivers from both teams threw TD passes) made it 28-28 with 9 and change left in the 4th, I only needed 6, baby!! It ended up being more of a sweat than I would have liked, but the over popped with 1:21 left on the clock. Tied at 35, things got a little crazy. Louisville was driving to kick a game-winning FG when their QB throws a pick. On the very next play, the Cards intercept a tipped pass for a game-winning 66-yard pick 6. AMAZING ENDING. Louisville played WAY better than I anticipated, as I had the Knights winning by double digits. That is why I don’t pick teams!! Since UCF QB Dillion Gabriel broke his clavicle on the last play of the game, I’m gonna be off the Gus Bus until Joey Gatewood proves himself. 

I called this exact total in my pick last week, 76 points, but I had the wrong team winning. Another shining example of why I never bet the spread. SMU has a QB named Tanner Mordecai, and he is officially the first member of my all-name team. After a 31-point 3rd quarter, I only needed 1 more touchdown to cash my 6th win in my last 7 tries. The over hit with 5:07 left in the game. Ka-chow!! But the fun didn’t stop there as SMU trailed 37-33 with 6 seconds left on the clock. Then, my boy Tanner tossed up a Hail Mary on the final play of the game and connected (on a deflection) with his receiver for a 33-yard game-winning touchdown. 

Tulane/Ole Miss went exactly as I expected. Hell, the only reason the total stayed under 100 was because it was 61-21 after the 3rd quarter. Both coaches decided to put an end to the bloodbath and just ran out the clock during a scoreless final quarter. I’m an ALL-TIME HOMER; however, the defense is improved, and this Ole Miss team is really good. Tulane is a game they would have lost under previous regimes, but Lane has the team laser-focused at all times. They are off this week before traveling to Tuscaloosa on Oct 2 for a BIG TIME showdown with Nick and the Tide. A win there, which hasn’t happened since 2015, not only catapults the Rebels into the Playoff conversation, but it would also solidify Matt Corral as a LEGIT Heisman contender. 

Oklahoma State was up on Boise State 21-20 at half (needed 59). Once again, a track meet had broken out on the Smurf turf and 24 points were put on the board in the second quarter alone. This bad boy was good as cashed. So, for the second week in a row, I decided not to watch the second half from Boise. The only difference from last time, THE GAME ENDED THAT WAY!! Not one single point was scored in the second half, just two turnovers, 2 missed field goals, and 7 punts!! Talk about a bad beat denying me of a sparkling, undefeated week. 

Going into the game, everyone was heaping praise on the Bruins. Then they went out, laid an egg, and got beat by Fresno State. AT HOME! I knew the Dogs would put a scare into UCLA, but I had them losing by a field goal not winning by one. Notice a trend there? Like a lot of Chip Kelly’s teams, this one wasn’t ready for the constant spotlight; however, they still put up points. The over hit pretty easily thanks to 34 points in the fourth quarter, so who really cares if UCLA is heading back to the dumpster or if this was just a brain fart against a talented team. I feel like it’s the latter as the Bulldog QB played the game of his life while playing through what looked like a painful hip injury. 

OK, OK. Enough about the past, here are my favorite OVERS for Week 4 of the College Football season. 

Boise State @ Utah State (O/U 69.5)

The Broncos are back in the picks for their third week in a row!! It could also be their last for a while if they don’t pop this one though. Do you hear that Boise?! I have a two-strike policy around these parts. DO NOT leave me with egg on my face again! The total opened at 63 and it has been bet up over 6 points. Line movement of five or more points merits an automatic hammer from the Points Junkie. In my mind, EVERYONE IS ON IT AND THEY CAN’T SET IT HIGH ENOUGH. Last week, Utah State and Air Force combined for 93 points. I just don’t see the Aggie defense faring any better against a far more talented Boise football team. I also believe the Broncos’ offense will want to get the bad taste from last week’s second-half shutout out of their mouths. Boise wins on the road 47-31.

PICK: OVER

SMU @ TCU (O/U 64.5)

I might regret this one, but I am riding with my boy TANNER MORDECAI!! Not gonna lie, I’m going with the heart on here, but I’m hopeful a good old-fashioned Texas shootout is in the making. Mordecai threw for 5 TD’s and nearly 500 yards against LA Tech, and I don’t anticipate the Horned Frogs, who were susceptible to the big pass play last week against Cal, slowing them down. TCU has a lot of experience on offense, and I expect RB Zach Evans to run wild through the Mustang secondary. The Frogs get it done at home 41-34.

PICK: OVER

Texas State @ Eastern Michigan (O/U 62.5)

Without a doubt, this is my junkiest pick in years, because I don’t think I’ve ever seen either of these teams play. Fun fact for you though, EMU plays their home games on a GRAY FIELD, which pales in comparison to the Smurf turf in Boise and the Blood field at Eastern Washington. What do you even call that? Elephant turf? It doesn’t exactly roll off the tongue, that’s for sure. Now, where was I? Oh yeah, the total opened at 57.5, so this is another automatic hammer from me. If this wasn’t a lead pipe lock, why are so many people betting this total? The stats don’t give me a lot of confidence and Texas State appears to be AWFUL. I mean, they lost to some school called Incarnate Word last week, but there were 76 points put on the board, so at least it wasn’t boring. But hey, sometimes you just got to go with your gut, and that is exactly what I’m going to do here. Eastern Michigan wins 47-34.

PICK: OVER

UTSA @ Memphis (O/U 67)

I want to give a big shoutout to the Memphis Tigers for taking down Mississippi State last week. It was nice to see the other school from MS struggle against the Tigers as they have tripped up Ole Miss a couple of times over the years. Memphis has an offense that averages 504 yards per game and a defense that gives up 483, which is a fantastic formula for lots of points. UTSA, who upset Illinois in their opener, has a similarly explosive offense, but their defense has yet to be tested against an offense like the Tigers. This won’t be another 55-50 game like Memphis played with Arkansas State, but I do believe the Tigers win 49-37.

PICK: OVER

North Carolina @ Georgia Tech (O/U 63)

The Tar Heels have scored 59 points in each of their last 2 games. Their offense is explosive (8.2 yards per play and 553 yards per game) and even though I’m not sold on Sam Howell as an NFL prospect, I will admit he’s a pretty good college quarterback. This could be a disaster as I’m not sure what to expect from a Georgia Tech team that lost to Northern Illinois but played Clemson to a 14-8 squeaker just a week ago. No doubt that North Carolina will score often in this one, and the Jackets should be able to steal a couple of TDs in garbage time. Tar Heels win 53-20.

PICK: OVER

About the author:

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Hi! My name is Pierce, and I’m a reformed degenerate gambler.

I say reformed because an average weekend used to involve me betting on every football game on the board. College, NFL, didn’t matter. Back then, it was all about the rush of every touchdown in every game mattering for me one way or another. I was a full-blown junkie. My goal wasn’t to make money but to win just enough to be able to bet the next week. I quickly learned, well... after a couple of years, that money plus time plus money equals heartache, not happiness.

Don’t mistake me for a handicapper, but I have developed my own system for betting on any sport. POINTS, BABY!! No more spreads, just OVERS, which dilutes the game to only its very best parts. Every touchdown matters for me again, each one building toward the ultimate dream of a winning bet. Whether offensive, defensive, or special teams, I love touchdowns of all kinds. Who’s winning? Who cares? Just tell me the score is high and I’m good.

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