The Points Junkie: Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 3)

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The Points Junkie- Always Bet the Over (College Football Week 3)

What a difference a week makes!! Last Tuesday, I felt like Clark Griswold digging in the desert in Vegas Vacation. Hanging out with Eddie, wondering how I was going to fix the mess I had created for myself. This week, I’m still Clark, but European Vacation Clark, celebrating with my family after winning the grand prize on Pig in a Poke. 

I’m back to .500 on the season (5-5), and I will probably regret saying this, BUT I LOVE THE BOARD THIS WEEKEND. Before we get to that though, a quick recap of Week 2. 

My first thought after kickoff was “oh my god Kansas huddles, it’s gonna be a long night.” I mean I haven’t seen a team huddle since Obama was in office. This one started slow, but after Coastal recovered a blocked punt for a touchdown, they led 21-9 with 8 minutes and change left in the second quarter. We were partying in Myrtle, baby. I was impressed by Grayson McCall and the Chanticleer’s offense; they were incredibly efficient. 43 points in the first half are the kind of pace to a game that over lover’s dream of. And if it was a dream, this game would be soaking wet. The Over hit with 8:39 left in the third. CHA-CHING, BABY!! 

Just like in the first game, the road dog took an early lead, but after an 81-yard punt return for a touchdown, Boise was bumping. That was the Broncos’ second touchdown in 18 seconds of game time and there were 30 points scored in the first 19 minutes of the contest. It was looking like the over might hit by half. BIG PLAYS were the name of the game in this one as a track meet broke out on the Smurf turf. There were 54 points on the scoreboard at halftime. Only needing a field goal, I didn’t bother watching the second half of this beat down. 

I’m an Ole Miss alum, so Saturday wasn’t the first time Hugh Freeze let me down. Since this was my only loss of the week, I don’t really want to waste any more space on the debacle that was the Liberty/Troy game.

I was in attendance for the Ole Miss beat down of Austin Peay Saturday night, so I did not watch Missouri/Kentucky. The Tigers were able to keep it closer than I expected, but this over was another one that wasn’t in doubt after the half. Kentucky can’t beat Georgia, but I do think they can give Cousin Eddie, I mean Dan Mullen’s Gators later this year. This team is scary no doubt and will continue to put up points on most defenses. 

Hawaii/Oregon State wasn’t looking great when I fell asleep (31 of 65 at half), but the over ended up popping late. They don’t happen as often as they used to, but a good old-fashioned PAC-12 after-dark shootout is a thing of beauty. It was a fantastic cap on a 4-1 week. 

One quick plug for a game I missed that turned out to be a POINTS BONANZA. Memphis beat Arkansas State 55-50!! I’m sorry I let y’all down, I whiffed on that one. Let me reiterate, though. I LOVE THE BOARD THIS WEEKEND!! Famous last words, yada yada whatever… here are my favorite overs for Week 3.

UCF @ Louisville (O/U 68)

I refused to buy a ticket on the Gus Bus last week. I wasn’t sure if he would keep the UCF offense operating at the breakneck speed of the past, but I was wrong. The Knights are averaging 85.5 plays per game and an impressive 7.3 yards per play on the young season. Bad news for a Louisville defense that struggled mightily against a similar offense in Ole Miss. The Cards’ offense should be able to get theirs as well seeing as the UCF Defense wasn’t that impressive in the opener, albeit they were playing Boise. Knights win this one, 45-31. 

Pick: OVER

SMU @ Louisiana Tech (O/U 66)

It’s already been a crazy year for LA Tech. They blew a 20-point lead in a loss at Mississippi State in the opener, then had to hold on for dear life to beat Southeastern Louisiana 45-42. A common theme in both games was a lot of offense and a defense that is giving up over 500 yards a game (6.8 per play). Those numbers make my ears perk up like a cat sniffing deli meat. SMU’s defense might only give up 10 points a game, but that was against Abilene Christian and North Texas. The Bulldogs are a much better team, and I just don’t see the Mustangs keeping them under 40. LA Tech wins 41-35.

Pick: OVER

Tulane @ Ole Miss (O/U 76.5)

The Green Wave played a part in my only ray of sunshine from Week 1, and they are back in the picks to make daddy smile again. The Ole Miss defense has been a lot better; however, they still gave up large chunks of yards to Austin Peay last week. Tulane brings a much better offense to Oxford, and while Matt Corral is guaranteed to light up the scoreboard, Michael Pratt (no relation to Chris) will get his as well. This is going to be a shootout, pure and simple. It wouldn’t surprise me if the total ends up over 100. Ole Miss wins 51-37. 

Pick: OVER

Oklahoma State @ Boise State (O/U 58)

The Oklahoma State offense hasn’t exactly set the world on fire to start the season (25.5 ppg), but the defense has been impressive (19.5 ppg). Those numbers do not scream OVER; however, this game is on the Smurf turf. I’m still riding the Boise buzz from last week, and I could be walking into a buzzsaw here, BUT something just feels right about this one. The Broncos are averaging 42.5 points per game and are probably looking forward to putting a beat down on a Big XII team. Boise wins 43-29.

Pick: OVER

Fresno State @ UCLA (O/U 62.5)

Fresno State joins Ole Miss and Louisville as teams I am giving a second chance this weekend. The Bulldogs have an explosive offense and are averaging 54 points a game against teams not named Oregon (hung 24 on Ducks). Not only does Fresno average over 7 yards a play, but they also convert 44% of their third downs. The Dogs keep the chains moving, baby. UCLA averages 41 points a game, and Zach Charbonnet has been a monster out of the backfield. The Bruins are riding high after beating LSU, and I expect them to come out a little complacent on defense after a bye week. I think Fresno puts a scare into UCLA. Bruins win 34-31. 

Pick: OVER

About the author:

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Hi! My name is Pierce, and I’m a reformed degenerate gambler.

I say reformed because an average weekend used to involve me betting on every football game on the board. College, NFL, didn’t matter. Back then, it was all about the rush of every touchdown in every game mattering for me one way or another. I was a full-blown junkie. My goal wasn’t to make money but to win just enough to be able to bet the next week. I quickly learned, well... after a couple of years, that money plus time plus money equals heartache, not happiness.

Don’t mistake me for a handicapper, but I have developed my own system for betting on any sport. POINTS, BABY!! No more spreads, just OVERS, which dilutes the game to only its very best parts. Every touchdown matters for me again, each one building toward the ultimate dream of a winning bet. Whether offensive, defensive, or special teams, I love touchdowns of all kinds. Who’s winning? Who cares? Just tell me the score is high and I’m good.

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