The Open 2021 Odds Preview

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Setting the scene where lady luck could take center stage

Since Shane Lowry won the Claret Jug in 2019, there have been six majors, none of which has been an Open Championship. However, the wait will soon be over, so raise those yellow flags and let the wind howl as the 149th edition of golf’s oldest major comes to the Royal St George’s and welcomes practically all of the world’s greatest golfers.

An Open Championship rarely passes by without leaving any trace. The courses, the circumstances, and the peculiarly archaic style of doing things all but preclude it.

Golf, an outdoor sport where the goal is to get a little ball into a hole that is usually hundreds of yards away, requires a great deal of luck. Luck is always there in golf, but nowhere is it more evident than in the Open Championship. Within the Open Championships, it’s possible that Royal St George’s, where the 396th-ranked player in the world won in 2003 and where outsider Darren Clarke repeated the feat in 2011, has been the most vulnerable to luck’s influence.

The setting is set for a magnificent, restorative week that should reveal a champion who has demonstrated their ability to play a very different type of sport.

While it’s true that forecasting The Open is more of a guessing game than any other major, that doesn’t imply it’ll be decided only by luck. Winning any event — and especially on this course – necessitates a certain level of ability. So this week’s focus is on finding athletes who possess a mix of buzzwords like patience, creativity, intelligence, and experience. And, of course, a dash of magic never hurts.

Betting Angles

Before the 2015 Open Championship, the five previous champions had warmed up for the tournament by competing in the Scottish Open the week before. Zach Johnson, who had placed third in the John Deere Classic before winning in 2015, put an end to the streak, but Henrik Stenson made it five wins in a row in 2016. But it’s incredible how quickly things can change. Only one of the last five Open Championship winners has competed in the Scottish Open, so teeing it up at the Renaissance Course the previous week was a significant plus for me.

Only one champion in over 30 years (Todd Hamilton in 2004) had played in America the week before winning at St Andrew’s, so I’m still sure that playing the Scottish Open last week and familiarising yourself with links golf is the way to go. Since 2011, the Scottish Open has been held on a links course, and it has proven to be an excellent warm-up event.

Seven of the top ten at Birkdale in 2017 had played at the Dundonald Links the week before, while Matt Kuchar, who finished fourth in the Scottish Open four years ago, came agonizingly close to winning the Open the following week, trading at just -294 in-running. The first four players to arrive at Troon in 2016 all played the week before at Castle Stuart, and while four of the past five haven’t warmed up in the Scottish Open, six of the last ten Open champions have.

Lowry went on a bit of a run after winning the Abu Dhabi Championship in January, coming third in the RBC Heritage, seventh in the USPGA Championship, and second in the Canadian Open before winning at Portrush. He cooled off a bit in his last two starts, finishing 28th at the US Open and 34th at the Irish Open, but he was clearly in form, and the three winners before him had all won in one of their previous two outings.

Only Ben Curtis, Stewart Cink, Ernie Els, and Zach Johnson won the Open without winning on the PGA or European Tour in the previous 12 months.

Previous Open Championship results are a significant indicator, with 14 of the last 15 winners having previously been in the top ten. For example, Lowry won the title after finishing ninth the year before, a year after Francesco Molinari won at Carnoustie after finishing ninth the year before.

Horses for courses

Royal St. George’s hosted The Open for the first time in England in 1894, and it will host the tournament for the 15th time this year. The most recent Open Championship to be held there was in 2011 (won by Darren Clarke at the age of 42), and the one before that was in 2003 (won by Ben Curtis). The course is notable for its rumpled and undulating terrain and dunes and deep bunkering, which often produce unpredictable bounces. In addition, it is situated on lovely seaside land.

The Royal St. George’s course stretches along the Kent coast, with views of Sandwich Bay from many of the holes. It’ll be an actual links test, with the ever-changing weather conditions having an impact. The bunkering and ups and downs of the course’s swales stand out from the start, as we’ve come to anticipate at this event. The bunkers are pretty punitive, and getting out generally necessitates playing the ball directly sideways. The course’s rolling levels will provide varied lays throughout the fairways, while the classic fescue can cause its own issues, resulting in huge numbers.

Course horses aren’t a thing this week because the tournament moves to a new location every year, but there’s still significance in looking at player success at this event. Many players, particularly Americans, are used to the links-style of these courses, and some manage it better than others.

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm 7-1
Bryson DeChambeau 14-1
Dustin Johnson 15-1
Rory McIlroy 16-1
Xander Schauffele 16-1
Brooks Koepka 16-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Jordan Spieth 20-1
Louis Oosthuizen 30-1
Shane Lowry 33-1
Tommy Fleetwood 33-1
Patrick Cantlay 33-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 33-1
Patrick Reed 33-1
Tyrrell Hatton 33-1
Paul Casey 35-1
Lee Westwood 35-1
Viktor Hovland 40-1
Scottie Scheffler 40-1
Webb Simpson 40-1
Collin Morikawa 40-1
Tony Finau 45-1
Justin Rose 45-1
Daniel Berger 50-1
Cameron Smith 55-1
Sergio Garcia 55-1
Marc Leishman 55-1
Branden Grace 55-1
Joaquin Niemann 60-1
Ian Poulter 60-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 66-1
Adam Scott 66-1
Abraham Ancer 66-1
Garrick Higgo 66-1
Will Zalatoris 66-1
Rickie Fowler 66-1
Robert MacIntyre 66-1
Lucas Herbert 70-1
Phil Mickelson 70-1
Harris English 70-1
Jason Day 70-1
Ryan Palmer 90-1
Jason Kokrak 90-1
Sam Burns 100-1
Alex Noren 100-1
Corey Conners 100-1
Thomas Detry 100-1
Matt Wallace 100-1
Francesco Molinari 100-1
Martin Kaymer 100-1
Brian Harman 125-1
Victor Perez 125-1
Guido Migliozzi 125-1
Danny Willett 125-1
Min Woo Lee 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Max Homa 125-1
Gary Woodland 125-1
Bernd Wiesberger 125-1
Russell Henley 125-1
Padraig Harrington 125-1
Billy Horschel 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Charley Hoffman 150-1
Harold Varner 150-1
Keegan Bradley 150-1
Kevin Streelman 150-1
Kevin Kisner 150-1
Richard Bland 150-1
Andy Sullivan 175-1
Emiliano Grillo 200-1
Jason Scrivener 200-1
Brendon Todd 200-1
Carlos Ortiz 200-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 200-1
Lucas Glover 200-1
Henrik Stenson 200-1
Cameron Tringale 200-1
Sebastian Munoz 200-1
Antoine Rozner 200-1
Erik Van Rooyen 200-1
Matt Jones 200-1
John Catlin 200-1
Chez Reavie 250-1
Aaron Rai 250-1
Matthias Schwab 250-1
Troy Merritt 250-1
Johannes Veerman 250-1
Brandt Snedeker 250-1
Dean Burmester 250-1
Joel Dahmen 250-1
Ryan Fox 250-1
Dylan Frittelli 250-1
Justin Harding 250-1
Chris Kirk 250-1
Mackenzie Hughes 300-1
Kurt Kitayama 300-1
Brendan Steele 300-1
Takumi Kanaya 300-1
Adam Hadwin 300-1
Lanto Griffin 300-1
Joost Luiten 300-1
Talor Gooch 300-1
Jack Senior 300-1
Romain Langasque 300-1
C.T. Pan 350-1
Jazz Janewattananond 350-1
Marcus Armitage 350-1
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 400-1
Marcel Siem 400-1
Daniel Van Tonder 400-1
Jimmy Walker 400-1
Rikard Karlberg 400-1
Paul Waring 400-1
Benjamin Hebert 400-1
Jorge Campillo 400-1
Keith Mitchell 400-1
Shaun Norris 400-1
Adam Long 400-1
Hao-Tong Li 400-1
Rikuya Hoshino 400-1
Byeong-Hun An 400-1
Marcus Kinhult 400-1
Chan Kim 500-1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 500-1
Marcel Schneider 500-1
Richard Mansell 500-1
Yuki Inamori 500-1
J.C. Ritchie 500-1
Ernie Els 500-1
Cole Hammer 500-1
Darren Clarke 500-1
Yuxin Lin 500-1
Ryosuke Kinoshita 500-1
Matthias Schmid 500-1
Daniel Hillier 750-1
Brad Kennedy 750-1
Ryutaro Nagano 750-1
Poom Saksansin 750-1
Jaco Ahlers 750-1
Christoffer Bring 1000-1
Richard T. Lee 1000-1
Nicholas Poppleton 1000-1
Deyen Lawson 1000-1
Jonathan Thomson 1000-1
Sam Bairstow 1000-1
Aaron Pike 1000-1
Laird Shepherd 1000-1
Ben Hutchinson 1000-1
Joe Long 1500-1
Sam Forgan 1500-1
Ricardo Celia 1500-1
Abel Gallegos 1500-1
Daniel Croft 2000-1

About the author:

Freelance Sports Writer | + posts

Hey Guys

My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.

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