Each week I publish the model’s rankings in the following categories: Projected Final Standings, Overall (Power), Quarterback, and Offense and Defense.
Predictive analytics in the NFL involves a constant battle with the sample size. We finally have a sufficient sample size that the numbers are stabilizing. This data is now fully incorporated into the model.
Projected Final Standings:
These projections take into consideration current record, health, and remaining schedule. On Fridays, I post the Futures Market version of this chart with available values.
|Team||Division||Proj. Wins||To Make Playoffs||Win Division||Win Conference||Win Super Bowl|
|Dolphins||AFC East||6.65||11.50%||1.50%||Close to 0||Close to 0|
|Jets||AFC East||5.13||3.00%||0.65%||Close to 0||Close to 0|
|Texans||AFC South||4.29||4.00%||3.50%||Close to 0||Close to 0|
|Jaguars||AFC South||3.71||1.95%||1.85%||Close to 0||Close to 0|
|Giants||NFC East||5.37||6.00%||2.00%||Close to 0||Close to 0|
|Lions||NFC North||2.95||0.15%||Close to 0||Close to 0||Close to 0|
|Falcons||NFC South||7.44||17.00%||2.00%||Close to 0||Close to 0|
Power Rankings (RES):
You can use the power rankings to produce a raw expected spread (RES) on a neutral field by combining the numbers for any two teams. The RES does not account for the scheme employed by each team. Thus the model’s ultimate prediction may differ.
Remember, the RES does not make any accounting of home-field advantage. The model disagrees strongly with the commonly-held belief that home-field advantage is worth 3 points. The model adjusts its home field advantage weekly based on numerous factors, including rest, and recent travel. The model also includes its own advantage based on whether a team is traveling east or west. No team in the league has ever received more than 2.13 points for home-field advantage.
You can also use the RES to find value in the look-ahead lines for next week.
The quarterback rankings are an objective measure which I named Total Passer Rating. There is no perfect score. However, I have never seen a quarterback finish the season with a ranking over 14. As with any ranking, it is subject to some disagreement. Generally, I think we will all agree with the broad strokes. The model uses these rankings in developing its power rankings, offensive efficiency rankings, and simulations of every game.
|1||Matthew Stafford||13.38||He has rightfully been in the top five all season.|
|2||Patrick Mahomes||13.28||Not sure he deserves this ranking, but the model thinks so. The Bills did not blitz Mahomes once during the entire game.|
|3||Tyrod Taylor||13.26||Injured –|
|4||Tom Brady||12.84||Sick. +26 EPA. 400+ yards. 5 touchdowns. Sick|
|5||Kyler Murray||12.64||Murray is the casual fan MVP favorite. He has been sensational. Is the most electric player in the NFL.|
|6||Justin Herbert||12.56||The Oregon Kid has everything. It is hard to tell what is his best trait. He is starting to get MVP buzz, appropriately.|
|7||Josh Allen||12.19||He held the ball a long time against the KC defense. When he held it over 4 seconds he was 4/6 190 yards and two touchdowns.|
|8||Russell Wilson||11.91||Injured and now out for 4-6 weeks.|
|9||Lamar Jackson||11.65||What performance in the second half on MNF. He hung some receivers out to dry, but he was sensational.|
|10||Aaron Rodgers||11.54||Odd game. He missed early, threw a pick, then caught fire. Still, they stalled drive after drive.|
|11||Dak Prescott||11.52||Don’t blitz Dak. It is his second game this season with 3 touchdowns against the blitz. Only other player with that accomplishment, Tom Brady. The touchdown to Lamb was a thing of beauty.|
|12||Daniel Jones||11.44||Dazed and confused|
|13||Jameis Winston||11.20||Jamies Winston’s first half hail mary was the NFL’s most improbable completion of the season, with only a 9% chance.|
|14||Kirk Cousins||11.20||He has remained in the eight to 14 area most of the season. This seems exactly correct as he fits nicely into that second tier of quarterbacks.|
|15||Derek Carr||11.03||I have to believe having Gruden gone is going to help him tremendously, and he has already been playing great. Gruden’s personality was never a fit with Carr. He needs to be coached differently.|
|16||Matt Ryan||11.01||He and Pitts seem to have found each other. He has played great the last few games. Reports of his demise were…premature|
|17||Joe Burrow||10.86||Kid gets beat to a pulp in that pocket, but he is special.|
|18||Carson Wentz||10.81||I tip my hat to him, he played really well Monday night.|
|19||Teddy Bridgewater||10.81||The schedule got tougher, especially on defense. This was expected.|
|20||Ryan Tannehill||10.62||He has not been the same without Arthur Smith. His regression combined with Atlanta’s drastic improvement (Especially Matt Ryan) since week one speaks to how creative and effective Arthur Smith is.|
|21||Sam Darnold||10.21||Don’t look now but NYJ Sam Darnold is starting to raise his hand. This is getting bad for a team that the model thought was overrated.|
|22||Mac Jones||10.20||He is still the best performing of the rookie quarterbacks. Fields may come charging from behind the pack to overtake him.|
|23||Taylor Heinicke||10.08||Heinicke is a decent backup.|
|24||Jacoby Brissett||10.06||He played well enough. The quarterback quandary in Miami is disheartening.|
|26||Baker Mayfield||9.46||Brown fans need to be concerned. Where has the game one Baker gone? Does he even know I have futures tied up in this team?|
|27||Ben Roethlisberger||9.31||His best game of the season.|
|28||Jared Goff||9.11||Detroit continues to play hard and lose in a heartbreaking fashion. Goff has been exactly as expected.|
|29||Jalen Hurts||9.07||Two short weeks ago he was in the top 10. I told you it was a mirage then. It was. This is where he belongs.|
|30||Andy Dalton||8.93||He is now where he belongs. On the bench backing up Fields.|
|31||Trevor Lawrence||8.01||His biggest impediment to success now is his head coach. Do not be surprised if he gets his first win this week.|
|32||Davis Mills||7.71||The kid had himself a game against a Belichick defense.|
|33||Zach Wilson||6.61||Starting to show glimpses.|
|35||Justin Fields||4.98||At the bottom but he is looking up. He should have success deep against the Packers|
Offensive & Defensive Rankings:
Both the offensive and defensive rankings are premised on efficiency. The median team always receives a ranking of 1.00. Thus, the Dallas Cowboys Offensive ranking of 1.22, indicates that they are 22% more efficient on offense than the league median. The New York Jets have a ranking of .79 which indicates they are 21% less efficient than the league median.
(The model finds the median to be far more important in the NFL than the mean, or average)
The defensive rankings work identically to the offensive rankings. Thus, the New England Patriots ranking of 1.20 indicates they are 20% more efficient on defense than the league median. The Falcons ranking of .84 indicates they are 16% less efficient on defense than the league median.
There is also reason to believe that Arizona is overrated on defense, Their five opponents include two rookie quarterbacks.