Setting the scene
The PGA Tour finished off its West Coast swing with a leaderboard full of excellent young players, demonstrating that this is the place to be. Joaquin Niemann of Chile is going wire-to-wire, with a slew of 20-somethings hunting him down. Collin Morikawa was one of them, as he put in a good performance on Sunday, not for the first time, to push Niemann to the finish line. Cameron Young, who was near the top of the leaderboard from start to finish and once again demonstrated his credentials by transferring his winning habit from the Korn Ferry Tour to the PGA Tour, did the same.
We now go east for the tour’s Florida swing, beginning with the Honda Classic, which used to attract world-class fields but has started to attract lesser fields in recent years due to scheduling. This does, however, provide players who have been missing out on starts in recent weeks an opportunity to shine, and I find these fields to be far more interesting to pore through.
Betting Angles
A Tournament Anyone Can Win
The Honda Classic has been a case of feast or famine for short price backers here since 2010. In six of the past 12 renewals, Matt Jones, Keith Mitchell, Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, and Rory Sabbatini have won the Honda Classic at odds of 300/1, 400/1, 300/1, 300/1, 80/1, and 80/1, respectively. However, over the same period, Camilo Villegas (30/1), Rory McIlroy (9/1), Adam Scott (20/1), Rickie Fowler (18/1), Justin Thomas (12/1), and Sungjae Im (35/1) have all been winners.
No Birdie Blizzard
Since shifting to PGA National in 2007, the winning score has only hit double digits under par four times in the 15 editions. Matt Jones, who shot a 12-under total last year, was one of them, though no one else was better than 7-under.
Stat Attack
These are the stats to look out for this week:
Bogey Avoidance
Par 4 scoring
Strokes Gained: Approach
Driving Accuracy
Putting on Bermuda greens
Time For Tee
Every February in Palm Beach, you can nearly cut and paste the weather forecast from one year to the next. The key, however, is the wind, which could gust to 18 mph or higher on Thursday, posing a significant challenge on a golf course with numerous hazards. However, from Friday onwards, the wind will drop to around 14 mph. Therefore, checking tee times can be crucial this week.
Horses for courses
The Champion Course, originally designed by Tom Fazio, was redesigned by Jack Nicklaus in 1990. It’s a beast of a course, measuring 7,048 yards and rated as the most challenging non-major venue last year. The course’s overall topic is accuracy. Bunkers, water, and slope protect landing sites, especially around pins, in a planned manner. Guys must have their distances dialed in because short or long misses almost always result in awkward, uncomfortable plays to the flag with bogey solidly in play.
The Champion Course at PGA National is similar to Torrey South. It requires patience, with only the ideal circumstances and club selection used to target flags. The Champion Course’s most well-known segment is 15 through 17. It’s known as the ‘Bear Trap,’ and it’s considered one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf. What if the wind is blowing? Put it out of your mind. It gets challenging to bail out and hope to save par.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Sungjae Im +1400
Daniel Berger +1600
Joaquin Niemann +1800
Brooks Koepka +2000
Louis Oosthuizen +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2200
Billy Horschel +2200
Shane Lowry +2500
Cameron Tringale +3000
Matthew Wolff +3300
Keith Mitchell +3300
Matt Jones +3300
Alex Noren +3500
Mito Pereira +4000
Brian Harman +4000
Patrick Reed +4000
Aaron Wise +5000
Denny McCarthy +5000
Taylor Moore +5000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +5000
Mackenzie Hughes +5000
Jhonattan Vegas +5000
Gary Woodland +5000
Cameron Young +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Nicolai Hojgaard +5000
Russell Knox +5500
Ryan Palmer +6000
C.T. Pan +6000
Lee Westwood +6600
Ian Poulter +6600
Lucas Glover +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Martin Kaymer +6600
Rickie Fowler +6600
Brendan Steele +8000
Aaron Rai +8000
Zach Johnson +8000
Lucas Herbert +8000
Charles Howell +8000
Michael Thompson +8000
Brendon Todd +8000
Taylor Pendrith +9000
Sam Ryder +9000
Dylan Frittelli +10000
Greyson Sigg +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Hudson Swafford +10000
Adam Svensson +10000
Stewart Cink +10000
Sepp Straka +10000
Garrick Higgo +10000
Nick Taylor +10000
Beau Hossler +10000
Padraig Harrington +12500
Charl Schwartzel +12500
Camilo Villegas +12500
Matthew NeSmith +12500
Mark Hubbard +12500
Henrik Stenson +12500
Patrick Rodgers +12500
Davis Riley +12500
Harry Higgs +12500
Chad Ramey +12500
Matthias Schwab +12500
Alex Smalley +12500
Satoshi Kodaira +15000
Adam Schenk +15000
Lee Hodges +15000
Hayden Buckley +15000
J.T. Poston +15000
Doug Ghim +15000
Kramer Hickok +15000
Doc Redman +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
John Huh +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Nate Lashley +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Vincent Whaley +17500
Stephan Jaeger +20000
Nick Hardy +20000
Brandon Hagy +20000
Sung-Hoon Kang +20000
Austin Smotherman +20000
Ryan Armour +20000
Robert Streb +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Kyle Stanley +20000
David Lipsky +20000
Hank Lebioda +20000
Kiradech Aphibarnrat +25000
Brian Gay +25000
Roger Sloan +25000
Peter Uihlein +25000
Andrew Novak +25000
Tyler Duncan +25000
Dylan Wu +25000
Brian Stuard +25000
Jason Dufner +25000
Jimmy Walker +25000
Brice Garnett +25000
Kevin Tway +30000
Nick Watney +30000
Anirban Lahiri +30000
Luke Donald +30000
Austin Cook +30000
Wesley Bryan +30000
Paul Barjon +30000
Bill Haas +30000
Brandon Wu +30000
Justin Lower +30000
Bronson Burgoon +30000
Jared Wolfe +30000
Tyler McCumber +30000
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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As always, believe in the power of statistics!
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