Recapping Last Weeks Bets
|To Win||Jordan Spieth||Lost|
|Top 10 Finish||Beau Hossler||Lost|
|Group Betting||Cameron Smith||Lost|
|Top 40 Finish||Andrew Landry||Lost|
Profit/Loss (This week) – Loss of $40 to a $10 Stake
Profit/Loss (Overall) – Loss of $421.80 to a $10 Stake
On to this week’s event.
As we move from the west to the east coast on the PGA Tour, there’s always a sense of contrast, but it’s rarely as apparent as it is now. The Genesis Invitational had its most competitive edition in recent memory last week, with the top ten players in the world competing, with several of them having competed in the dramatic Phoenix Open the week before. However, each of them is taking a break this week as the Florida swing gets underway on a low-key tone.
At PGA National, champions have a habit of getting out to a fast start and being near the top of the leaderboard by the halfway mark. After 36 holes, not one of its champions has been more than three strokes behind the leader, and none has finished outside the top ten. 12 of the 15 champions at PGA National have finished in the top five after 36 holes. As a result, if you’re too far behind the leader on Friday evening, it doesn’t appear to be an easy course to chase birdies on.
The course has several characteristics that make it such a difficult test. Not least because it is a pretty exposed structure near the Atlantic coast, which means weather is likely to cause havoc. The rough isn’t overly punishing, and the fairways are forgiving, with the course ranking approximately average in terms of fairways hit over the last six seasons. Greens, despite their size, are substantially more challenging to hit, ranking among the most challenging greens on Tour. Heavily undulating, firm, and with plenty of run-off spots. All of this is without considering the one most dangerous aspect of this setup: the sheer amount of water in play.
As previously said, the field is poor, particularly when compared to last week and what is expected in the coming weeks. The highest-ranked player is Louis Oosthuizen, who is rated 13th globally, with Brooks Koepka at 15th and last week’s champion, Joaquin Niemann, at 20th, rounding out the trio of players from the top 20. In addition, a group of European players will make their debut appearance in the United States in 2022, with Tommy Fleetwood, who has a strong track record in this country, being the most famous. However, I’m more interested in seeing how Nicolai Hojgaard, the current Ras Al Khaimah Championship champion, performs in the United States on a course that may well suit his style.
On to our picks for this year…
Billy Horschel +1800
Horschel is a Florida native and will have had plenty of experience on this golf course. While Horschel has been relatively inactive this season, I see this as a good thing as he is being a lot more selective over the events he plays, and he seems to have targeted this one. He placed sixth at the Phoenix Open recently, so he is in good touch despite his inactivity. He has the second-best first-round scoring average on Tour this season which is a significant plus. As the pin locations get more complex throughout the week, it will be harder to make birdies. Therefore, those that find themselves towards the top of the leaderboard after day one could well find themselves up there come Sunday.
Top 10 Finish
Cameron Young +450
This season, Cameron Young has had two runner-up finishes, which makes him a great top ten prospect here. In addition, he ranks second on Tour for strokes gained off the tee which should help him achieve slightly easier approach shots. His approach play isn’t always the best, which is a slight concern, but given the quality of the field this week, I am happy to overlook this. He finished well last week, and I hope he can bring that form into this week and hit the ground running.
Top South African
Louis Oosthuizen +120
Although this is a short odds selection, for me, it’s as close to a certainty as you can get in the world of golf. Although the world number 13 is yet to break into the top ten this season, we must be reminded he has played very little golf. He has missed this event two of the last three seasons and doesn’t have an excellent record here, so why has he chosen to play here this week? Especially when he hasn’t played much golf this season. He surely fancies himself to do well this week, and so do I!
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
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