The American Express Odds Preview

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The American Express Odds Preview

Setting the scene

What a way to end the Hawaii Swing! Russell Henley and Hideki Matsuyama battled it out down the stretch, with the Masters champion erasing a five-shot deficit on the last hole to force a playoff. He would next hit one of the shots of the year, putting his 277-yard approach to within three feet for a kick-in eagle and the victory.

The TOUR will now return to the mainland for The American Express, with a lot riding on two low-scoring events on the islands that generated a lot of buzz. It will benefit from the comeback of two of the world’s best players, Jon Rahm and Patrick Cantlay, who will compete in the multi-course tournament in La Quinta, California. The American Express is a 54-hole cut competition played over three courses, with amateurs paired with professionals for the first three rounds.

We witnessed a deviation from the three-course, Pro-Am format last year. The amateurs and the La Quinta CC course were withdrawn from rotation owing to COVID protocols. As a result, there was a conventional 36-hole cut, with three of the four rounds taking place on the Stadium Course. It’s also been shortened from a five-day, 90-hole tournament to a four-day, 72-hole affair.

Betting Angles

Premium on Putting

This type of event frequently devolves into a putting competition, allowing inferior, less consistent ball strikers to compete with the best.

Well-rounded Player

Each of the three golf courses caters to a particular type of player. At the Stadium Course, bombers and short-game specialists have the upper hand. At La Quinta, the emphasis is on iron play, short game, and putting. Finally, the Nicklaus Tournament Course emphasizes a combination of long and straight drives off the tee and excellent iron play and putting.

Going Green

Si Woo Kim, Jason Dufner, Bill Haas, Patrick Reed, Brian Gay, and Mark Wilson, six of the last ten champions, won PGA Tour titles on Bermudagrass greens before winning in La Quinta. Jon Rahm, who won the D.P. Tour Championship on the European Tour at the Earth Course in November 2017 before winning this in January 2018, continues the tradition.

Don’t Count Anyone Out

In all honesty, it isn’t easy to predict, especially at an event where the average winning price over the last eight renewals has been 154/1, and the previous four winners have been 66/1, 200/1, 600/1, and the 10/1 Favourite.

Well Oiled Swing

Since Charley Hoffman won this event in 2007, when it was his first of the year, 12 of the next 13 champions have all made at least one start. Bill Haas was the odd man out in 2015. But, surprisingly, a good performance does not appear to be necessary. The latest two winners and the five winners between 2008 and 2012 failed to make the Sony cut.

Horses for courses

The famous La Quinta Country Club is back in the AMEX rotation for this year’s tournament. La Quinta Country Club is known for its excellent greens and classic design aspects, but it’s also a course where golfers may go low. The course was rated the easiest on the PGA Tour calendar in 2020, with an average score of 2.824 strokes under par.

The Nicklaus Tournament Course is a Par 72 layout covering just over 7,100 yards and is truly a second shot course, with spacious fairways and challenging locations around the green. Players who keep their approach shots locked in will be rewarded, and the course should present plenty of opportunities to score.

The Stadium Course, created by Pete Dye, is often two or more strokes harder than the Nicklaus, owing to challenging rough, substantial bunkering, and water in play on two-thirds of the holes. However, both courses have Bermuda grass greens, with the latter being far more accommodating off the tee and giving the bombers a chance to let loose. As they compete for position moving into the weekend, players will be trying to capitalize on their round at the Nicklaus.

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm +600
Patrick Cantlay +900
Scottie Scheffler +1800
Tony Finau +2000
Sungjae Im +2000
Corey Conners +2200
Abraham Ancer +2800
Patrick Reed +3000
Matthew Wolff +3000
Russell Henley +3300
Talor Gooch +3300
Seamus Power +3300
Will Zalatoris +4000
Cameron Tringale +4500
Justin Rose +4500
Rickie Fowler +5000
Alex Noren +5000
Si-Woo Kim +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000
Jhonattan Vegas +6600
Charles Howell +7000
Carlos Ortiz +7000
Brian Harman +8000
Gary Woodland +8000
Adam Hadwin +8000
Cameron Champ +8000
Luke List +8000
Chris Kirk +8000
Sebastian Munoz +8000
Russell Knox +9000
Adam Long +10000
Denny McCarthy +10000
Michael Thompson +10000
Andrew Landry +10000
Jason Day +10000
Phil Mickelson +10000
Brendan Steele +10000
Brendon Todd +10000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +10000
Chez Reavie +10000
Harold Varner +10000
Kevin Streelman +10000
Patrick Rodgers +10000
Lanto Griffin +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Emiliano Grillo +12500
Patton Kizzire +12500
Hayden Buckley +12500
Taylor Moore +12500
Aaron Rai +12500
Henrik Norlander +12500
Doug Ghim +12500
Kramer Hickok +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
Danny Lee +12500
Adam Svensson +12500
Troy Merritt +12500
Vincent Whaley +12500
Zach Johnson +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Tom Hoge +12500
Hudson Swafford +15000
Robert Streb +15000
Rory Sabbatini +15000
Martin Laird +15000
John Huh +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Scott Piercy +15000
Chad Ramey +15000
Brandt Snedeker +15000
Matthew NeSmith +15000
C.T. Pan +15000
Francesco Molinari +15000
Adam Schenk +17500
Harry Higgs +20000
Nick Taylor +20000
J.J. Spaun +20000
Dylan Wu +20000
Greyson Sigg +20000
Nick Hardy +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Davis Riley +20000
Brian Stuard +20000
Cameron Young +20000
Sahith Theegala +20000
Hank Lebioda +20000
Sepp Straka +20000

About the author:

Freelance Sports Writer | + posts

Hey Guys

My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.

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As always, believe in the power of statistics!