At Ride the Wave Locks, we know baseball. Both as a sport and as a betting opportunity. It’s our passion. And as bettors, it pays the bills.
BeerLife Sports invited us into the fold to share our knowledge with their audience. We love that idea. Why would you trust a sports handicapper you barely know, let alone know if they know their game?
We know our game. We love it. And we want to share that passion with you.
Ben and Cam, Ride the Wave Locks
(text us to get our picks right now for FREE: 954-807-4526)
The most common question we get is, why can’t I win money betting MLB? That’s probably the most common betting question across many sports, but there are few places to find solid baseball betting advice. Which is unfortunate. Because betting baseball is amazing. It’s daily, fun, and lucrative if you know what you’re doing. Or not doing.
Here are the five most common missteps we’ve seen with MLB bettors:
#5. Laying Bets Before Starting Lineups Are Posted
We all have that buddy that is sending us “locks” the night before. Nice guys, but they are giving you bad advice.
In baseball especially, locking in plays a significant time in advance is detrimental to your betting success. Injuries and fatigue plague professional baseball teams. Stars will sit out unexpectedly and when playing a gruesome 162 game season in the MLB, rest plays a pivotal role in player longevity.
Starting lineups are typically announced 1-3 hours prior to the first pitch. That provides plenty of time to evaluate the players set to take the field at game time and lock in your picks. In modern baseball, the starting nine changes almost any given day based on whether the pitcher is an RHP or an LHP.
This leads to our personal favorite statistics regarding offense: average On-Base % (OBP) and Batting Average (AVG/BA) versus left-handed pitchers and versus right-handed pitchers. The average bettor would be surprised by the large discrepancy between a team’s stats versus a left-handed pitcher compared to a right-handed pitcher.
It is crucial to make your picks after the lineups are released because the unexpectedness of key players sitting out due to injuries or rest causes significant line changes as well. Wait for the final lineup submissions, and bet on your team from there.
#4. Underestimating the Dominance of Pitching (Including Bullpen)
The greatness or inconsistency of the pitching staff of each MLB team is an extremely reflective measure of the success of the team.
Top pitchers in the MLB like Jacob DeGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Kevin Gausman, Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, etc., can single-handedly take over games with their sheer dominance. In contrast, poor pitching can put immense pressure on the team’s offense to produce an abnormal amount of runs night in and night out.
We have experienced both ends of the spectrum with a team like the Mets. The Big Three of DeGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Taijuan Walker have done some serious damage this year. However, their bullpen has given up large leads due to their lack of depth with relievers.
Teams exceeding their initial expectations prior to the season like the San Francisco Giants were primarily driven by their deep and talented pitching rotation. According to Baseball Reference, the Giants’ pitching rotation boasts an average WHIP of 1.10 and they trail only the Los Angeles Dodgers in the category this season. (WHIP is a statistic that represents Walks/Hits per Innings pitched.)
If you follow our community and MLB simulations @RideTheWaveLocks on Instagram, you will see how much pitching plays a role in our model. Over 76% of the time, our simulation sides with the pitcher with the better WHIP, which is a statistic we greatly value. We believe the stat encompasses the talent of a pitcher more than ERA because it takes into account how often pitchers are giving free bases to the offense, walks.
Pitching plays a key role in every game, and it is important to value how much pitching can control the outcome of a game.
Ride the Wave Locks MLB Sim picks are FREE now for the BeerLife Sports audience. You can sign up below via your text.
#3. Betting With Your Heart, Instead of Your Brain
Every diehard sports fan has a team that they cheer for or straight up despise. The rivalry between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees embodies this sentiment. However, sports betting has no room for fandoms or grudges.
Too often, an undisciplined sports bettor will side with their favorite team, because they want to see them win, which is natural, but it’s definitely not the way to bet. Diving into the numbers and following trends are paths towards a successful betting experience.
Statistics and trends are everywhere with a simple Google search. Trends that we personally value are winning/losing streaks, record on back-to-backs, home/away records, and player/team performance. The stats behind these trends can easily show us the smarter way to bet.
If you’re looking to actually make money from your bets, take the time, do the research, and always bet by the numbers, not your heart. Are you prepared to bet against your favorite team to win a bet?
#2. Being Narrow-Minded
We can not emphasize this enough — work with a friend you trust and do not be afraid to invest in professional capper picks to help back up your initial thoughts on an individual game.
Open-mindedness is a huge part of betting any sport. This is especially true for baseball given how deeply it runs on stats and numbers. When a sports capper or a trustworthy friend has a similar pick as you with an explanation in statistics, it is certainly a confidence booster.
Similarly, that same buddy or capper may be the one to talk you out of your own pick, We’ve all been there. The moral of the story: don’t keep your picks to yourself. Collaborate with others and listen to what other people have to say. From there, find the best games and roll with them.
We recommend joining sports betting discords, following pages on social media, and constantly talking about baseball with your friends to make the best-educated decisions. These are the simplest and most effective ways of gathering valuable data for your sports bets.
You can use our very own RTW Locks MLB Simulations by texting 1 (954)-807-4526 to get started, and they are FREE for the rest of the season.
Keeping an open mind makes sports betting fun and can significantly improve the quality, and your overall confidence in your picks.
#1. Not Keeping Up with the Baseball World
As an MLB sports bettor, it is important that you follow the transactions each team is making whether trades or calling up top prospects from the minor leagues. It’s mid-season now and teams, both in contention and those faltering, are starting to bring up their top prospects to either help out the team immediately or give them experience at the highest level.
Keeping updated with the moves, especially at the deadline can help you understand which direction teams are headed, whether it is pursuing a championship, or a rebuild. As an example, we expect Max Scherzer, a talented veteran pitcher with the Nationals, could be on the move to a team with championship aspirations.
Beyond personnel moves, look at MLB league moves like recently announcing a crackdown on pitchers uses illegal stick’em. Notable pitchers like Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow have claimed that sticky goo is part of the game and should stay in baseball.
Tyler Glasnow actually has been placed on the IL (Injured List) and he believes it is from being deprived of the substances that helped him grip the baseball. Gerrit Cole’s RPM (Revolutions Per Minute) has severely dropped after Spider-Tac was banned as a substance, lowering his spin on the baseball and making his pitches overall easier to hit.
If you’re going to bet on baseball, know baseball. Live it daily. When you see a Sim Pick from us, you should inherently know how our mathematical model got there.