Spotlight: NFL Week 12 (Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots)
Last week we debuted our ‘Spotlight’ series and took a deeper look at the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers. If you recall, we recommended leaning into the Eagles’ recent run-game resurgence and hammer Philly and the ‘over’ in their games. If you had followed that advice, you would have gone 2-0 this weekend.
As for the Chargers, we recommended that Los Angeles is too reliant on their superstar quarterback Justin Herbert. We advised taking the points anytime the Chargers are more than a 3-point favorite. Again, had you followed that advice, you would have won your bet.
This week we turn our attention to the Indianapolis Colts.
The Indianapolis Colts began their season 1-4, and things around the Colts franchise looked bleak. Since that time, the Colts have gone 5-1. Their only loss came at the hands of the Titans, by a field goal. The question to answer: “Are the Colts for real?”
During the Colts’ last six games, they have averaged 33.5 points per game. Only the Arizona Cardinals have scored more points than the Colts have in 2021. How are the Colts scoring as much they are?
The Colts are running the football as effectively as any team in the league. The Eagles have been lauded for their running game lately. No team in the NFL runs the ball as much as the Ravens. Yet, no team has run the ball as efficiently as the Indianapolis Colts as they are averaging 5.2 yards per carry, the best in the league.
With the weather turning cold and teams becoming more reliant on running the football, a team like the Indianapolis Colts have staying power. I would lean in on the Colts’ recent surge and play them in one-score games.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS:
What if I told you that three NFL teams have scored over 300 points in 2021? The Indianapolis Colts, the Arizona Cardinals, and… the New England Patriots!
The New England Patriots were sitting on a 2-4 record, and since then, a switch has gone on, and the Patriots have won five straight games. The switch has turned on for rookie signal-caller Mac Jones and the Patriots offense.
It has not mattered who has run the football for the Patriots, whether it be Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Brandon Bolden, or a host of others, the Patriots run game has been effective all season long.
The biggest thing that I have noticed is that offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is loosening the reigns a bit and the Patriots’ average depth of target climb every week.
The Patriots are not the type of team you wish to play come December. With Mac Jones playing such as he has, the sky is the limit for the Patriots the rest of the season. I would take the Patriots and give the points in one-score match-ups.