Beginning this week, we wanted to spotlight a few teams around the NFL and provide more context to what the recent trends are suggesting and how you can benefit.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES:
Anyone who has watched the Philadelphia Eagles the last few weeks can tell you that there has been a change in offensive philosophy. The Philadelphia Eagles have rushed the football 68% of the time in neutral game scripts over the last four weeks. What does this stat tell us? It tells us that the Eagles have not only turned their attention to the run game, but they have done so with a great deal of success. The Eagles are averaging 30 points per game in that span with, Jalen Hurts, Jordan Howard, and Boston Scott leading the way behind a revitalized offensive line.
The Eagles will also get Miles Sanders back soon to add even more explosiveness to this backfield. Take a glance forward at the Eagles schedule after this week: at Giants, at Jets, vs. WFT, vs. Giants, at WFT. Including this week, for six weeks, the Eagles defense will face Trevor Simian, Daniel Jones twice, Taylor Heinicke twice, and Zach Wilson. Jalen Hurts is playing the best football of his young career as well.
When you add this all up to formulate our betting equation, what spits out is that you can expect the Over/Under on Eagles games to be in the low 40s, and you can expect the Eagles to be slight favorites for the next month plus. We have been betting against the Birds early this season but are now recommending that you may want to consider transitioning the way you approach this team. If I’m a betting man, I’m putting my money down on Philadelphia and the ‘Over’ in this stretch of games.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS:
The Los Angeles Chargers have been a topic of conversation around leagues circles here lately. What exactly is going on in Los Angeles? Coming into the 2021 season, we thought that the Chargers would be a more physical team. The Chargers were getting back an All-World talent in Derwin James on defense. The Chargers drafted rookie offensive tackle/guard Rashawn Slater to provide them added punch up front.
These additions may have helped, but they have not transitioned a Chargers team in need of toughness. Even with a talented running back in Austin Ekeler, the Chargers are bottom-twelve in the league in rushing. That’s not the most alarming part. What is most worrisome is that the Chargers give up the most rushing yards per game (155 rushing yards/game) by a WIDE MARGIN. Traditionally, you’ll find the worst teams in the league at the bottom of this category–teams that lack talent, teams that are behind a lot on the scoreboard, and the opposition is simply running the ball to run down the clock to end the game.
This is not the case with the Los Angeles Chargers as they sit here at 5-4. What this tells us is that the Los Angeles Chargers are a talented team. One pushed around up-front on both sides of the ball, and they remain too reliant on their quarterback Justin Herbert to bail them out.
In the Chargers’ five victories–Justin Herbert averaged 319 yards passing and three touchdown passes per game, and in those five games, the Chargers won four of five by six points or less. In the Chargers’ four losses–Justin Herbert averaged 238 yards passing and one touchdown pass per game. In betting and fantasy football, we are trying to tell ourselves a story. The story of the Chargers is that they are walking a thin line here and only cover on games where their quarterback is spectacular. The Chargers are living off of an early-season reputation at the moment. Take advantage of Vegas by fading the Chargers in games where they are over 3-point favorites.
I like beer. I like football. Sometimes, both at the same time.
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