Setting the scene
The Hawaii Swing is halfway over, with the season’s first full-field event taking place this week. Fans may celebrate the Sentry TOC’s great names and stunning imagery. However, bettors know that the Sony Open is where it all comes down to business. There is a strong association between these two tournaments, unlike perhaps any other pair of back-to-back events on the PGA TOUR schedule.
It doesn’t seem to make sense on the surface. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is a big ballpark with wide, rolling fairways and massive greens. Waialae CC is more for striker’s with pinpoint precision, required on a sometimes windswept course. So, what’s the link here? There are several of them.
Perhaps most importantly, last week, golfers who played at Kapalua got to play four rounds in a competitive setting, something that no one at Waialae has had in over a month. In and of itself, this is a huge benefit. However, when you consider that these athletes are already acclimated to the time zone, it’s simple to understand why they might have an advantage.
Betting Angles
Course Correlation
Following Cameron Smith’s triumph at Kapalua, six players have now won this tournament and the Sentry Tournament of Champions last week. Several other PGA Tour sites also correlate well with Waialae. The RSM Classic, held at the Seaside Course in Sea Island, Georgia, the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Links in South Carolina, and the Mayakoba Golf Classic at El Camaleon in Mexico, are all short seaside courses with challenging, grainy greens.
Leading the Way
In this century, five players have won here from start to finish. Therefore frontrunners have a respectable track record. In addition, six years earlier, after leading through rounds one, two, and three, Brandt Snedeker was defeated in extra time, Russell Henley won from the front after starting second, and Kuchar started third and two shots behind the leader after round one before leading after rounds two and three. It’s historically difficult to win here if you’re off the pace, but it’s not impossible.
Tee the Key? Or Lay up and Play up?
At Waialae CC, there is no link between driving distance and success. Because of the shorter layout, most players have found success by easing up on the tee and focusing on playing out of the fairway for more controlled approaches. As a result, slight misses into the rough aren’t as costly as they would be on a more strategic course like Colonial or Harbour Town. However, players are hitting these fairways at a slightly lower rate than the TOUR average, giving the more accurate players an advantage off the tee.
Ironing out your Problems
The golf course puts a player’s mid to long irons to the test. The golf course has a high concentration of approach shots between 125 and 200 yards. As a result, the average PGA Tour stop will see players hitting their mid irons at a significantly higher rate than this one. Last week at Kapalua, on the other hand, wedge play and lengthier approach shots were put to the test the most. This week’s winners will be determined by examining proximity and strokes acquired performance from this range.
Horses for courses
With a Harbour Town links ambiance that requires accuracy and finesse from players, this small track is a different test from last week’s location. The primary defense is the wind, and scoring depends on the conditions. Bermuda fairways of average width and tree-lined fairways lead to huge Bermuda greens that often play slowly. This is an old-school type test requiring consistency and precision from tee to green.
There are multiple dog legs on the course, so positioning yourself for a solid second shot is crucial. It doesn’t matter how far away it is as long as it’s in the proper position. This week, stay away from any golfers who are struggling with an iron in their hand. Last week, many wedges were utilized to approach the greens, but mid and long irons will be used more than anything else this week.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Cameron Smith 11-1
Webb Simpson 16-1
Sungjae Im 16-1
Hideki Matsuyama 20-1
Marc Leishman 22-1
Corey Conners 28-1
Kevin Na 30-1
Russell Henley 33-1
Harris English 35-1
Abraham Ancer 35-1
Kevin Kisner 35-1
Talor Gooch 35-1
Seamus Power 40-1
Matt Jones 40-1
Billy Horschel 40-1
Jason Kokrak 40-1
Cam Davis 50-1
Si-Woo Kim 50-1
Joel Dahmen 50-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 50-1
Maverick McNealy 50-1
Charles Howell 55-1
Brendan Steele 60-1
Brendon Todd 60-1
Denny McCarthy 66-1
Ryan Palmer 66-1
Chris Kirk 66-1
Brian Harman 66-1
Matt Kuchar 66-1
Keith Mitchell 66-1
Erik Van Rooyen 66-1
Keegan Bradley 70-1
Aaron Rai 80-1
Branden Grace 80-1
Takumi Kanaya 80-1
Patton Kizzire 80-1
Tom Hoge 80-1
Lucas Herbert 80-1
Stewart Cink 80-1
Chez Reavie 80-1
Emiliano Grillo 80-1
Adam Long 90-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 90-1
Henrik Norlander 100-1
Brian Stuard 100-1
Zach Johnson 100-1
Robert Streb 100-1
Taylor Pendrith 125-1
Alex Smalley 125-1
Lucas Glover 125-1
Chad Ramey 125-1
Stephan Jaeger 125-1
Hayden Buckley 125-1
Hudson Swafford 125-1
Russell Knox 125-1
John Huh 125-1
Brandt Snedeker 150-1
Hank Lebioda 150-1
Tyler Duncan 150-1
Greyson Sigg 150-1
Adam Schenk 150-1
Rory Sabbatini 150-1
Pat Perez 150-1
J.J. Spaun 150-1
Vincent Whaley 150-1
Michael Thompson 150-1
Cameron Young 150-1
Harry Higgs 150-1
Scott Piercy 150-1
Kramer Hickok 150-1
Max McGreevy 150-1
Kyle Stanley 175-1
Jim Furyk 175-1
Mark Hubbard 175-1
Rikuya Hoshino 200-1
Chan Kim 200-1
Andrew Putnam 200-1
Graeme McDowell 200-1
Ryan Moore 200-1
Kevin Tway 200-1
Keita Nakajima 200-1
Ryan Armour 200-1
Nick Hardy 200-1
Camilo Villegas 200-1
Jim Herman 200-1
Davis Riley 200-1
Andrew Novak 200-1
Sepp Straka 200-1
Sahith Theegala 200-1
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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