Setting the scene
When the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open begins on Thursday at TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas, some of the best players on the PGA Tour will go back to work. The field for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in 2021 features 11 of the top 25 players in the world, including four-time major champion Brooks Koepka and eight previous major champions. Last year’s winner, Martin Laird, won on a sponsor’s exemption, and the Shriners Children’s Open has accounted for two of the Scotsman’s four PGA Tour victories. In 2010, he came up just short of defending his first Shriners championship when Jonathan Byrd beat him on the fourth playoff hole with a hole-in-one for eagle.
It’s all about defying the odds in Las Vegas, and last year’s winner achieved just that. Martin Laird won even though he was a long shot. Due to left knee surgery, Laird had only competed in three tournaments since March. So despite a more significant field than last year, Las Vegas proved once again that anyone could win in the City of Sin.
This week, it’s all about keeping it low. Four of the last five champions have shot a score of 20 or less. Martin Laird’s 23-under-par 261 wasn’t enough to win in regulation, but he won against Austin Cook and Matthew Wolff in a playoff.
Betting Angles
Many higher-ranked pros, like Louis Oosthuizen and Brooks Koepka, are playing in their first tournament since the Tour Championship. Even though the course appears to be designed for the longer hitters, many of the Tour’s shorter drivers have had success here in the past. Webb Simpson is a former champion in this group, and Kevin Na will be looking for his third triumph at TPC Summerlin. The 38-year-old Na, who has already won twice in 2021, makes his first start of the new season.
Mexican Abraham Ancer is another player whose driving ability is in the 290-yard area. From five prior visits to TPC Summerlin, the world No. 12 has a pair of top-four performances, including a breakthrough triumph at the WGC St Jude Invitational in August. Sticking with mid-range drivers, Korea’s Si Woo Kim is currently in fine form. Kim, who is still only 26, tied for ninth at TPC Summerlin a year ago and has already had a pair of top-12 performances on the PGA Tour. This week, Jason Kokrak could be your man if you’re looking for a longer hitter who consistently putts.
Horses for courses
TPC Summerlin has a reputation for being one of the most straightforward courses to play all year, yet the weather can still affect how it plays. In 2017, for example, the wind hampered scoring throughout the week, and the event was won at a pathetic nine-under-par. Last season, however, the weather was ideal, and the course was the third-easiest on the TOUR, scoring -2.141 strokes under par, with the victor shooting 23-under par.
The venue’s high altitude means that almost anyone can drive it relatively far, and the fact that recent winners have included shorter hitters like Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, and Ben Martin should tell us right away that lack of driving distance isn’t a big concern. Likewise, last year’s playoff featured a bomber in Matthew Wolff and a tee-to-green hitter in Austin Cook. The players will also benefit from the fact that nothing about this course’s configuration is particularly demanding.
The bentgrass greens are average to above average in size and don’t play very fast, while the rough isn’t highly lengthy. Because of the altitude, even the longest par five can be reachable in two strokes. Most players will have an eagle opportunity or two per round if their ball-striking is on point. While there are a few longer par 4s, only one or two are particularly difficult because they require players to hit a driver from the tee. Only three of the course’s 11 par 4s are longer than 450 yards. The par 3s are some of the most challenging holes on the course.
Where’s the money?
Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Viktor Hovland 20-1
Sam Burns 22-1
Abraham Ancer 25-1
Webb Simpson 25-1
Kevin Na 25-1
Louis Oosthuizen 25-1
Scottie Scheffler 25-1
Hideki Matsuyama 28-1
Will Zalatoris 28-1
Harris English 30-1
Patrick Reed 30-1
Paul Casey 33-1
Corey Conners 33-1
Sungjae Im 33-1
Si-Woo Kim 35-1
Adam Scott 40-1
Cameron Tringale 40-1
Matthew Wolff 45-1
Jason Kokrak 45-1
Joaquin Niemann 45-1
Erik Van Rooyen 45-1
Maverick McNealy 50-1
Charley Hoffman 50-1
Kevin Streelman 50-1
Brian Harman 50-1
Mito Pereira 50-1
Russell Henley 60-1
Talor Gooch 66-1
Marc Leishman 66-1
Ryan Palmer 80-1
Adam Hadwin 80-1
Taylor Moore 80-1
Ian Poulter 80-1
Cameron Davis 80-1
Emiliano Grillo 80-1
Aaron Wise 80-1
Rickie Fowler 100-1
Patton Kizzire 100-1
Carlos Ortiz 100-1
Pat Perez 100-1
Doug Ghim 100-1
Luke List 100-1
Stewart Cink 100-1
Sebastian Munoz 100-1
Seamus Power 100-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 100-1
Chad Ramey 100-1
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Lanto Griffin 100-1
Denny McCarthy 100-1
Danny Willett 100-1
Joel Dahmen 100-1
Sahith Theegala 100-1
Henrik Norlander 100-1
Lucas Glover 100-1
Charl Schwartzel 125-1
Garrick Higgo 125-1
Roger Sloan 125-1
Russell Knox 125-1
Joseph Bramlett 125-1
Cameron Young 125-1
Rasmus Hojgaard 125-1
Ryan Moore 125-1
Stephan Jaeger 125-1
Scott Stallings 150-1
Tom Hoge 150-1
Hayden Buckley 150-1
Brendan Steele 150-1
Martin Laird 150-1
Francesco Molinari 150-1
Harry Higgs 150-1
Brandt Snedeker 150-1
Dylan Frittelli 150-1
Seth Reeves 150-1
Chez Reavie 150-1
Hudson Swafford 150-1
Adam Schenk 150-1
Kyle Stanley 150-1
Troy Merritt 150-1
Scott Piercy 150-1
Brendon Todd 150-1
Matt Kuchar 150-1
Charles Howell 150-1
Nick Watney 150-1
Matt Jones 150-1
Zach Johnson 150-1
Mark Hubbard 175-1
Chesson Hadley 200-1
Chun-An Yu 200-1
Keith Mitchell 200-1
Matt Wallace 200-1
Sam Ryder 200-1
Peter Malnati 200-1
James Hahn 200-1
Nick Taylor 200-1
Sepp Straka 200-1
Robert Streb 200-1
Matthew NeSmith 200-1
Nate Lashley 200-1
Rory Sabbatini 200-1
Brian Stuard 200-1
Greyson Sigg 200-1
Michael Thompson 200-1
Doc Redman 200-1
Kevin Tway 200-1
Aaron Rai 200-1
Davis Riley 250-1
Adam Svensson 250-1
Hank Lebioda 250-1
Bronson Burgoon 250-1
Wyndham Clark 250-1
Trey Mullinax 250-1
J.T. Poston 250-1
Brandon Hagy 250-1
Brice Garnett 250-1
Andrew Landry 250-1
Andrew Putnam 250-1
Hey Guys
My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.
I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.
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