Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds Preview

Sentry Tournament of Champions Odds Preview

Setting the scene

The Sentry Tournament of Champions, held at the Kapalua Plantation Course in Maui, marks the return of the PGA TOUR this week. Kapalua is a one-of-a-kind par-73 course that measures 7,515 yards and has four par 5s but only three par 3s. Except for the 2020 edition, which played more difficult due to wind, the Tournament of Champions is a no-cut and usually low-scoring affair. The event is generally quite scoreable, thanks to wide fairways and soft greens, with just coastal breeze and elevation differences to contend with.

Every winner from the previous season is invited to compete in the Sentry Tournament of Champions, as is customary. As a result, we have a fantastic field this year, with many strong players vying for the title in 2021. As a result, the tournament will have a relatively large field, with 39 golfers expected to compete. The field is expectedly stacked with most of the world’s best golfers. Rory McIlroy is the only golfer that qualified but will not play.

Betting Angles

Driving Not Essential

Only one of the first six homes has been in the top ten for Driving Distance in each of the last two renewals, and none of them has finished in the top 12 for Driving accuracy, so what you do off the tee isn’t critical. I prefer length over the accuracy, but it’s unnecessary to bomb it off the tee.

GIR Becoming More Important?

In this competition, greens in regulation haven’t been a particularly relevant metric, and three of the last eight winners have finished 11th or worse. Still, it appears to be more crucial now than it was previously. Both of the previous winners came in third place for GIR.

Scrambling Not As Important?

Scrambling used to be a big deal, and I still think it is, but the only player in the top six last year who ranked higher than the winner (17th) was Justin Thomas, who finished third. On the other hand, Thomas was only eighth, although he won here two years ago when he was 32nd for Scrambling.

Course Correlation

The Sony Open, which takes place next week, provides the greatest view. Between 2013 and 2015, English finished in the top ten in the event three years in a row, and Niemann followed up his runner-up finish here with another second a week later at Waialae. Thomas won both the Sony and the Sony Open in Hawaii five years ago, joining an impressive group of players who had lately won both events. In addition to Thomas, Vijay Singh, Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, and Zach Johnson have all won the two tournaments in recent years, and there is a slew of other players who have excelled at both venues.

Horses for courses

Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore created the Plantation Course at Kapalua in 1991. Since 1999, it has hosted the Tournament of Champions. Both pros and amateurs praise the course. The course is fun and challenging because of the elevation changes and the possibility of prevailing winds wreaking havoc on the golf course. In addition, it features breathtaking views of Honokahua Bay and Molokai Island.

The golf course was renovated before the 2020 competition. The golf course has been completely redone with a more durable strain of Bermuda grass. Additionally, bunkers and greens were redesigned to create more pin places. As a result, the greens were extremely hard, and the scores were substantially higher than in previous years.

After a full year of foot usage, the greens softened up in preparation for the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions. Kapalua was run over because of the calm weather conditions. The week’s average field score was -3.7. Nine players finished the week with a score of -20 or better. After both players finished their 72 holes at -25, Harris English won a playoff over Joaquin Niemann.

Where’s the money?

Let’s now look at the betting for the week ahead:

Jon Rahm 17-2
Justin Thomas 17-2
Collin Morikawa 10-1
Viktor Hovland 12-1
Bryson DeChambeau 12-1
Xander Schauffele 14-1
Patrick Cantlay 16-1
Sam Burns 16-1
Daniel Berger 22-1
Brooks Koepka 22-1
Jordan Spieth 22-1
Sungjae Im 22-1
Cameron Smith 22-1
Hideki Matsuyama 22-1
Abraham Ancer 25-1
Tony Finau 25-1
Patrick Reed 25-1
Harris English 33-1
Jason Kokrak 35-1
Marc Leishman 35-1
Talor Gooch 35-1
Billy Horschel 55-1
Kevin Na 60-1
Si-Woo Kim 66-1
Seamus Power 66-1
Max Homa 66-1
Cameron Champ 66-1
Lucas Herbert 80-1
Erik Van Rooyen 80-1
Kevin Kisner 100-1
Joel Dahmen 100-1
Garrick Higgo 100-1
Cameron Davis 100-1
Branden Grace 100-1
Kyoung-Hoon Lee 125-1
Matt Jones 125-1
Phil Mickelson 125-1
Lucas Glover 150-1
Stewart Cink 150-1

About the author:

Freelance Sports Writer | + posts

Hey Guys

My name is Dean, AKA The Stat Man. I am a Sports Betting Analyst who uses math, algorithms, probability and logic to create my posts. I specialize in many sports, with Golf being the primary focus. You can find a lot of my work on various websites but the best content is found here on Beer Life.

I live in the UK, on the outskirts of London but my background and heritage is Irish. I'm an avid Manchester United fan who sees following them as a religion. Sport is pretty much my life, as I live and breathe it daily. If there is something I don't know it's probably not worth knowing as I have over 20 years industry experience and insight.

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As always, believe in the power of statistics!


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